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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #2,081
  • Apr 21, 2010 4:06pm Apr 21, 2010 4:06pm
U/Cad
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  • #2,082
  • Apr 21, 2010 4:14pm Apr 21, 2010 4:14pm
Quoting shahab8b
being loaded up with short A/U from .9315-35 & short E/U, long U/Cad from .9982-.9932 , I'm looking for USD strength
still in play , A/U short SL> B/E
  • #2,083
  • Apr 21, 2010 4:20pm Apr 21, 2010 4:20pm
Quoting shahab8b
I recived a question regarding the Trend Following Model (TFM) that I use

here is the method:

use two indicators
1-daily pivot -red line
2-LSR (level-stop-reverse v2) - blue line

when hr candle closes below them short, when it closes above them long
as simple as that, but remember you need to wait for the first candle signal which happens every 2-3 days as it indicates a new short term cycle (bull/bear),don't jump in in the midle of the cycle

atm we need to see if this hr candle can close below LSR and daily pivot that would be a sell signal...
A/U , may be this TFM approach is missing a good part of the trend but the reliability is high
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  • #2,084
  • Apr 21, 2010 4:30pm Apr 21, 2010 4:30pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi there, hope all your trades are green,
what do you think of making an EA based on this #2073 ?
hey shah.... they all aren't green..... get my fair share of red ones for sure..... might even have a few extra, if anyone needs a few.....


//----
that eurgbp is yet another perfect example of how poor a manual trader i would make..... yesterday there was a combined 424 pips in the green.... left to my own, half those open eurgbp trades would have been closed out of caution..... looks like the ea might have closed 1 or 2, but added still more..... 850 combined pips now......

ea's must control my trades...... i'll shoot myself in the foot everytime otherwise.....

//----
speakin of which,

yes post 2073 looks like an excellent candidate for an ea..... should take only a minute to write...... will holler back later.......h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #2,085
  • Apr 21, 2010 4:38pm Apr 21, 2010 4:38pm
E/G

long at .8685 sl=50
reasons on the chart
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  • #2,086
  • Apr 21, 2010 4:45pm Apr 21, 2010 4:45pm
Quoting hayseed
hey shah.... they all aren't green..... get my fair share of red ones for sure..... might even have a few extra, if anyone needs a few.....


//----
that eurgbp is yet another perfect example of how poor a manual trader i would make..... yesterday there was a combined 424 pips in the green.... left to my own, half those open eurgbp trades would have been closed...
great, but you need to set SL and TP for that, and download the "level-stop-reverse-v2" indicator from here at FF.

if you are going to write it set SL above LSR level -the indi gives you the signal when it happens-(so the SL would be dynamic)
for TP I think it should be 1 or 2* ADR as a fixed TP or RSI >80 <20
+ you may want to let it add to position if it touches daily pivot again as far as LSR is outer than Daily pivot
and I would like to add my Hedging algorithm to it, which I supposed to email it to you but I haven't got the chance yet
  • #2,087
  • Apr 21, 2010 7:01pm Apr 21, 2010 7:01pm
Quoting shahab8b
I recived a question regarding the Trend Following Model (TFM) that I use

here is the method:

use two indicators
1-daily pivot -red line
2-LSR (level-stop-reverse v2) - blue line

when hr candle closes below them short, when it closes above them long
as simple as that, but remember you need to wait for the first candle signal which happens every 2-3 days as it indicates a new short term cycle (bull/bear),don't jump in in the midle of the cycle

atm we need to see if this hr candle can close below LSR and daily pivot that would be a sell signal...
Hello shahahb8b, can you please post the two indicators mentioned above or tell me where they have been posted? thx a lot Max
  • #2,088
  • Apr 21, 2010 7:39pm Apr 21, 2010 7:39pm
YEN

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  • #2,089
  • Apr 21, 2010 11:24pm Apr 21, 2010 11:24pm
Quoting dorellino
Hello shahahb8b, can you please post the two indicators mentioned above or tell me where they have been posted? thx a lot Max
here are the original versions
what you see on my post I made some modification -I got ride of arrows at LSR and daily S/R at daily pivot. you can do that by making some simple changes in the code
I also uploaded weekly pivot indi too as you may find it useful
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Pivot Point.ex4   5 KB | 557 downloads
File Type: mq4 MT4-LevelStop-Reverse-v2.mq4   16 KB | 627 downloads
File Type: mq4 Pivot Auto-Weekly.mq4   14 KB | 507 downloads
  • #2,090
  • Apr 22, 2010 12:36am Apr 22, 2010 12:36am
Shahab8b -

plz check your pm ASAP

Cheers
  • #2,091
  • Apr 22, 2010 1:25am Apr 22, 2010 1:25am
Quoting hayseed
hey p...... your hurtin my feelin's talkin about my girl like that..... me and miss loonie are striking up a long term realtionship..... so if you see 2 Uggghhhh loonie's walkin around the next conferarate railroad concert, it's us'es......
Not expecting any nasty spike down to the 0.90 area this time I take it? From memory, I think it was some big M&A transaction that helped it along back then. I'm not sure Miss Loonie would appreciate you calling her trashy either - lol

FWIW

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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,092
  • Apr 22, 2010 1:58am Apr 22, 2010 1:58am
hi guys

gbpchf

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/jn...f5k5_thumb.gif

good luck
  • #2,093
  • Apr 22, 2010 2:09am Apr 22, 2010 2:09am
Audusd60
0-5?

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/3c...8nxp_thumb.gif

good luck
  • #2,094
  • Apr 22, 2010 3:10am Apr 22, 2010 3:10am
Quoting shahab8b
E/G

long at .8685 sl=50
reasons on the chart
Yeah, nice rejection off daily S1. We've also slightly exceeded AWR with that dip down.

Daily Market Strategy and report on NZ's economy with references to Oz attached.

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Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Market_Strategy_Daily_22_Apr_2010.pdf   131 KB | 301 downloads
File Type: pdf WOApril22.pdf   139 KB | 321 downloads
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,095
  • Apr 22, 2010 4:54am Apr 22, 2010 4:54am
EG - looks like it is heading for the next fib at .8600. MA's crossing over too.
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  • #2,096
  • Apr 22, 2010 8:01am Apr 22, 2010 8:01am
Quoting shahab8b
here are the original versions
what you see on my post I made some modification -I got ride of arrows at LSR and daily S/R at daily pivot. you can do that by making some simple changes in the code
I also uploaded weekly pivot indi too as you may find it useful

hey shah..... quick question, but pay no attention to the trades themselves, they are from another ea.....

if, ,,, the blue line is the daily pivot and magenta line is the level-stop-reverse v2, would there be a short trade placed at the red arrow.....

the close moved below both the lsr and pivot...... yes there might have been eariler trades, but this is the one i'm focusing on ......

thanks.....

backtesting those rules appear quite good...... and again, pay no attention to the trades themselves, they are from something else.....h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #2,097
  • Edited 11:00am Apr 22, 2010 10:38am | Edited 11:00am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting hayseed
hey shah..... quick question, but pay no attention to the trades themselves, they are from another ea.....

if, ,,, the blue line is the daily pivot and magenta line is the level-stop-reverse v2, would there be a short trade placed at the red arrow.....

the close moved below both the lsr and pivot...... yes there might have been eariler trades, but this is the one i'm focusing on ......

thanks.....

backtesting those rules appear quite good...... and again, pay no attention to the trades themselves, they are from something...

Hey there hayseed,

That's how I understood shahab's TFM-system.
H1 Close below both the daily pivot and the stop-reverse v2.
So the red arrow would be the place to enter according to this..
(But shahab may confirm that once again)

"manual" backtesting through the charts looks really good indeed.
so you got that EA finished already?

btw... hard not to pay attention to the other trades on your charts
looks like you are deeeep in the green pips with those
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #2,098
  • Apr 22, 2010 10:39am Apr 22, 2010 10:39am
Quoting Patience
Not expecting any nasty spike down to the 0.90 area this time I take it? From memory, I think it was some big M&A transaction that helped it along back then.
hey p..... thanks for the chart.... wish ibfx would offer it.....


actually kinda expecting/preparing for the possibility of a further usdcad fall... hence the buying the next 1000 down...... 0.90 would be a welcomed sight..... for a day......

//---
can't help but think we should all do well this year..... monthly pair movements should be far larger than normal and we have become far better traders......

//----

as far as memory goes, mine is so bad i can't even remember where i left the lawn mower..... and the grass is too high to see it.......

speakin of too high, the swissy just pole vaulted over prior resistance....... gravity appears to be settling in but that's to be expected......h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #2,099
  • Apr 22, 2010 12:15pm Apr 22, 2010 12:15pm
Quoting hayseed
hey shah..... quick question, but pay no attention to the trades themselves, they are from another ea.....

if, ,,, the blue line is the daily pivot and magenta line is the level-stop-reverse v2, would there be a short trade placed at the red arrow.....

the close moved below both the lsr and pivot...... yes there might have been eariler trades, but this is the one i'm focusing on ......

thanks.....

backtesting those rules appear quite good...... and again, pay no attention to the trades themselves, they are from something...
Hi, no it's not right, take a look at my chart
you don't have a signal there as your sell signal was much higher , you are in the short trade now , the concept of this method is to ride a cycle- its TFM based on a bull or bear cycle in short term (Hr chart) ,each trade might last 1-2 days
as I pointed out on the chart there is an option to add to the winning position in the re-touch of the daily pivot as far as your LSR in outer than daily pivot- if the LSR is closer to price than daily pivot, the trade should be closed before getting to daily pivot.
for TP I suggest a 1-2 * ADR or RSI >80 <20 at Hr chart ,the ADR for E/U is 128 pips atm, so TP would be 1.3320 or 1.3200 approximately for an entry of
1.3445
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  • #2,100
  • Apr 22, 2010 12:22pm Apr 22, 2010 12:22pm
Quoting Tuner
Hey there hayseed,

That's how I understood shahab's TFM-system.
H1 Close below both the daily pivot and the stop-reverse v2.
So the red arrow would be the place to enter according to this..
(But shahab may confirm that once again)

"manual" backtesting through the charts looks really good indeed.
so you got that EA finished already?

btw... hard not to pay attention to the other trades on your charts
looks like you are deeeep in the green pips with those
Hey Tuner, take a look at the last chart I posted , when you are still in the middle of a cycle you shouldn't enter unless there is a re-touch of daily pivot with LSR supporting it outside - the concept is to trade the cycle not the signals so you should enter at the beginning or wait for the next cycle, which might be 1-3 days
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