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  • #11,641
  • Apr 21, 2010 7:21am Apr 21, 2010 7:21am
Quoting No1Optimist
Greetings Strat & Co....
Roger, this is not a refinement of anything. This is exactly how SR levels are identified. The degree to which you identify and use them is, and always will be, up to the individual trader.

As traders, we all have our own individual styles BUT we all trade PASR.

Some traders are very profitable trading Big Boss SRs, others Boss SRs while those learning basic PASR should be using Worker SRs.

I use all of them when necessary plus I will also add in more on the Worker depending what I'm looking for and what I PLAN.

The most fundamental and important technique is to RECOGNISE and correctly IDENTIFY SR.

As we move into Advanced Trading, we will take recognition and identification of SR to ANOTHER LEVEL.

However, basic PASR must be UNDERSTOOD and traded until you can do it "second nature".

Too many students, after a couple of successful trades think they have "got it", think they are "experts", try and walk on water and then, when they get it wrong and LOSE, and give up because PASR doesn't work.

It appears some posters think I am exaggerating when I say you need at LEAST 3 months of successful PASR trading before you "get it". Having thought about it, yes, I was wrong, I cannot put a time constraint on it because the market may not provide us with 3 months of PASR trades so I am working on what "number of trades" qualifies us to say we "get it".

You cannot spend enough time practicing on charts.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,642
  • Apr 21, 2010 7:45am Apr 21, 2010 7:45am
Quoting djr
My 1st post. Seemed like one that stood out to me at my level. Finally trusted myself enough to pull the trigger and trade closed on its own today sometime!!

All and any feedback gratefully accepted:

OBSERVATIONS:

Big Boss:
MA's crossed down, PA below 20, bounced off 78.6 of UP move 11/2007-3/2009 = R...
Big Boss:
MA's crossed down, PA below 20, bounced off 78.6 of UP move 11/2007-3/2009 = R level at 1.0223 ish, also off a LH of 1/2010 = 61.8 of prior move up
Good – also notice the 20 acting as R

Boss:
MA's down, parallel to each other, PA below 20, lower TL corresponding with R at 1.0233 ish, PA following a confirmed LL just prior
The last Boss candle was a BUOB! This should have stopped you thinking short

Worker:
Gap up open on Sunday,
Whoa! Be VERY careful with this! Unless you UNDERSTAND Sunday bars, what they mean and DON”T mean, IGNORE THEM!
More often than not, there will be a gap between the Friday close and Sunday open but this is, more often then not, closed when the BIG VOLUME comes in (London) on Monday.
with SS/Doji star rejection of the UP move, bounce off weekly/daily lower TL. 23.6 retrace of prior Up move, and SR line at 1.0104 which would = 20MA position

Con to the trade was PA was in the 20-50 trap and could be trading into the 20 and possible S at the bottom of the gap up.

TRADE:

ENTRY sell stop @ 1.0122, 10 pips below "gravestone doji"

SL = 1.01663 above the high of prior long white candle

TP = just above next lower MINOR SR line at 1.0013 @ 1.0016
Your TP should have been at the previous bottom – 0.9987 or to be safe, parity.

In retrospect, I was very lucky as this was not a true PASR trade per Strat, and would have done the following differently, as I realised that I didn't truly trust the trade (working on that):

 

  1. Entered below the gap so as not to trade into possible support...i.e. enter below SR at 1.0104 (which was below the gap)
  2. Maybe have used major SR @ 9887 ish. for TP instead of minor support and also making a double bottom
  3. SL needed to be above doji high in case it was not a straight fall.


It seems to me that despite you looking at the Big Boss and Boss, you took no notice of them and took your trade based solely on Worker PA.
This worked out good in this trade as the Worker was at R and 50 and was going to pull back.


You were lucky THIS TIME – eventually your luck will run out.


Never rely on intangible things like “luck” and “hope” to make you profitable.

15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,643
  • Apr 21, 2010 7:59am Apr 21, 2010 7:59am
Quoting No1Optimist
Fellow learners on the "Path" please do not be put off by such unhelpful comments.

They are unfortunately typical of the comments of this poster, who is consumed by hubris.
Roger, I am very surprised and disappointed with your comments.

Who are you to criticize a learned Professional Trader?

How can you say this is "typical of the comments of this poster"?

Alexandra, like all of us, and me especially, has her "style" and while she may talk in "code" sometimes, her comments are always positive and constructive.

This was Alexandra in one of her "funny moments" which are few and far between.

You need to lighten up and realise there is more to life than trading. Get some balance in your life and stop being too serious.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,644
  • Apr 21, 2010 8:01am Apr 21, 2010 8:01am
Quoting igmal
Coincidence?
What is the coincidence, please explain I'm feeling a bit "thick" today.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,645
  • Apr 21, 2010 8:09am Apr 21, 2010 8:09am
[quote=Money Magnet;3656276]
Quoting tmanbone


Hello Tmanbone

I did not consider EUR/CAD,
Based on my Charts. I may not have too, maybe I still have lots to learn.

Frank
I did not consider EUR/CAD,
Based on my Charts. I may not have too, maybe I still have lots to learn.

Are you serious?

It’s there on YOUR chart – it is STANDING UP and SHOUTING “Sell me for all your worth!”

This was an ATM trade at its finest.

Tell us WHY you didn’t SEE this
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,646
  • Edited 8:38am Apr 21, 2010 8:16am | Edited 8:38am
[quote=strat;3658334]
Quoting Money Magnet

I did not consider EUR/CAD,
Based on my Charts. I may not have too, maybe I still have lots to learn.

Are you serious?

It’s there on YOUR chart – it is STANDING UP and SHOUTING “Sell me for all your worth!”

This was an ATM trade at its finest.

Tell us WHY you didn’t SEE this
Money Magnet reread post #11607. Take it as a challenge. There is a great lesson here. Cheers,
T
  • #11,647
  • Apr 21, 2010 8:29am Apr 21, 2010 8:29am
Quoting dorellino
Maybe a silly question, forgive me I'm studying....
Does having coloured bull and bear candles (blue/red white/black) helps in order to have an instant feeling when reading the chart with PASR parameters?
For example 2 days ago eurcad showed a shooting star that closed "bullish". Is this critical for a shooting star? Or the shape of the candle is more important compared to where it closed?
I know that at least for other candles formation this is critical ...and it gives some pain when trying to learn them.
Maybe a silly question, forgive me I'm studying....
Does having coloured bull and bear candles (blue/red white/black) helps in order to have an instant feeling when reading the chart with PASR parameters?

Not a silly question at all and in fact a very important one.
Whatever colours you choose for your up and down candles is purely YOUR personal choice. However, once you have chosen the colours, STICK with them.

This is important because you are memory training your sub conscious with colours i.e., you automatically (without thinking) see red (or the colour of your choice) as DOWN and BEARISH.

If you keep changing colours, you will confuse your sub conscious which already has enough confusion in its memory.

For example 2 days ago eurcad showed a shooting star that closed "bullish". Is this critical for a shooting star? Or the shape of the candle is more important compared to where it closed?
I know that at least for other candles formation this is critical ...and it gives some pain when trying to learn them.

Seems like this has nothing to do with colours but candle recognition.

When we move into advanced trading, you will realise that candle shapes, positions and patterns are just the beginning while many think it is the end.

In learning basic PASR we have to learn basic candle recognition. This is well explained in the thread with many examples. We cannot move on to more candlestick studies until these are etched into our trading memories.

The answers to your questions are “Yes” and there are many other considerations when evaluating candlesticks but FIRST, lets learn to crawl before even attempting to walk.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,648
  • Apr 21, 2010 8:38am Apr 21, 2010 8:38am
Quoting igmal
Hi everyone! Yesterday i was talking about N/U chart.Today looking again and again at it, I've notice something very interesting and funny to me.I drew a line wright through the poin of triangle,in order to make 2 identical triangles.The line becomed a perfect SR level,more than this ,the periods of time when the price alternates above,under the SR level(grey zones),could give some clues:above>under>above>........Thanks.
You must be learning. I have drawn this many times. How to use this information depends on how it is formed. Sometimes the centreline doesn't mean a thing while other times it is very important especially if it coincides with SR.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,649
  • Apr 21, 2010 9:01am Apr 21, 2010 9:01am
I hope you all went to the hole in the wall for this one!

Talk about Ka-chink!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,650
  • Apr 21, 2010 9:24am Apr 21, 2010 9:24am
[quote=strat;3658334]
Quoting Money Magnet

I did not consider EUR/CAD,
Based on my Charts. I may not have too, maybe I still have lots to learn.

Are you serious?

It’s there on YOUR chart – it is STANDING UP and SHOUTING “Sell me for all your worth!”

This was an ATM trade at its finest.

Tell us WHY you didn’t SEE this

A) Clearly, lack of experience in PASR trading.
B) Timing, my charts the bars close at midnight my time, so at 8 am horse had already bolted. At least a good way.
C) I guess the green doji fooled me.
D) I took the EUR/AUD trade and was in on another two.

But yes I do feel silly now for not have giving it the attention it deserved.
  • #11,651
  • Edited 9:48am Apr 21, 2010 9:27am | Edited 9:48am
Quoting strat
Roger, I am very surprised and disappointed with your comments.

Who are you to criticize a learned Professional Trader?

How can you say this is "typical of the comments of this poster"?

Alexandra, like all of us, and me especially, has her "style" and while she may talk in "code" sometimes, her comments are always positive and constructive.

This was Alexandra in one of her "funny moments" which are few and far between.

You need to lighten up and realise there is more to life than trading. Get some balance in your life and stop...
There is a lesson here, as I attmepted to illustrate. One of the repetitive flaws I've seen across the various forums is the need to proclaim that one has a solid system. It seems to be necessary for many traders to justify the risk, capital, and time expenditure which they undertake. Stating that one has "refined" a method such as Blackeagle's shows, in itself, a need for reassurance. I guarantee you that this need will be exploited on a daily basis by market participants until the trader reaches a point where he/she can illustrate trades without the need to verbalize.

The other comments are expected. This is not a popularity contest. I know what to expect when I post. And, yes, I believe such posts will benefit those few "traders to be" who read them with inspiration and humility. Why? It was done for me, so I pass it on.
  • #11,652
  • Edited 9:47am Apr 21, 2010 9:32am | Edited 9:47am
Head and Shoulders

Why is this pattern a hi probability reversal pattern?

This one is EASY. First...as all the pros on the board say, zoom out.

(Assuming a bearish formation) Because the head is a HH and the second shoulder is presumably the first LH of the downtrend.

Does it always work out this way? No. Which is why I just pay attention to HH, LL etc rather than patterns.

This particular example just happened to have a cofirmed LH at resistance so if you had traded Strat's method, you would have gotten in before the HS pattern watchers did, which was already at least halfway through the move.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,653
  • Apr 21, 2010 9:43am Apr 21, 2010 9:43am
[quote=tmanbone;3658361]
Quoting strat

Money Magnet reread post #11607. Take it as a challenge. There is a great lesson here. Cheers,
True, at least my only loss was oppertunity, and the gain knowledge
  • #11,654
  • Apr 21, 2010 10:15am Apr 21, 2010 10:15am
Quoting strat
I hope you all went to the hole in the wall for this one!

Talk about Ka-chink!
I got too hung up on waiting for the triangle to break and didn't see the SR where the shooting star formed (added in green after the fact). I must admit I am not comfortable trading inside corrections, I guess I'll have to practice more. Thanks for pointing this one out Strat. Cheers.

John
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Finally out of the shadows.
  • #11,655
  • Apr 21, 2010 12:47pm Apr 21, 2010 12:47pm
Quoting Alexandra
There is a lesson here, as I attmepted to illustrate. One of the repetitive flaws I've seen across the various forums is the need to proclaim that one has a solid system. It seems to be necessary for many traders to justify the risk, capital, and time expenditure which they undertake. Stating that one has "refined" a method such as Blackeagle's shows, in itself, a need for reassurance. I guarantee you that this need will be exploited on a daily basis by market participants until the trader reaches a point where he/she can illustrate trades without...
Gets my vote Alexandra - I always look fwd to reading your musings when I drop in at night. Looking fwd to getting back down and dirty with price action when this MBA is finished. I'm already getting tired of standard distributions, T and Z tests, Null Hypothesis testing yada yada - at least I understand a bit more about how financial markets get into such a mess now - people hang their hats off of 95% confidence intervals and then cry when the 5% random event not predicted by the model blows their accounts! (a la Black Swan!)

To all the doubters of price action - don't - I have been to indicator land and back and it wasn't until I was directed to this thread a year ago, that I finally found my 'grail'- PA and that bloke in the mirror.

Keep zoomed out on the weekly charts and then only drop to the daily charts when the Boss gives you an opportunity or nears an important level. Always do your weekly analysis and make sure you stick with it. If on a Sun night you only have 3 weekly setups that you like then you should only have 3 charts on the daily TF ready for a pullback and entry. I know Nic and I both do weekly analysis and I publish it on a blog so that it forces me to do so each week.

Try something like this - it may work for you it may not - I use this and only take trades when all the colours across my chart match up - a quick and easy reference guide to check trades with at 2200 BST each night.

Good trading all!
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Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #11,656
  • Apr 21, 2010 1:18pm Apr 21, 2010 1:18pm
Hi mstandifer,

I was reading this thread since Saturday and have strongly feel this is the right method for me. Today I've signed up to become an ForexFactory member. I was intending to send a personal message to you to formally inform you of my interest to become one of many Strat Method students. I found out that as junior member I can't send PM yet.

I'm not sure if writing this here is the right way but I'm really interested so I tried, if I'm doing it wrong I apologize and kindly request you to please send me the details of how to join.

Thank you and have a nice day.

elPips
  • #11,657
  • Apr 21, 2010 1:28pm Apr 21, 2010 1:28pm
Try something like this - it may work for you it may not - I use this and only take trades when all the colours across my chart match up - a quick and easy reference guide to check trades with at 2200 BST each night.


Thanks grim, my analysis has been handwritten up till now,but i was struggling as to how to develope it into a more visual representation, your post has given me a great template.

All the best
  • #11,658
  • Apr 21, 2010 3:08pm Apr 21, 2010 3:08pm
Quoting strat
I hope you all went to the hole in the wall for this one!

Talk about Ka-chink!
strat... a touch trade? off the.885 / trendline?

or bottom break?

how can this be considered a price bar if it engulfs a 3h candle
  • #11,659
  • Apr 21, 2010 6:48pm Apr 21, 2010 6:48pm
Traditional technical analysis for a wedge (as taught by Strat at the beginning of the thread) says you take the high at the start of the wedge (Dec08 - 0.9802) to the low of the first swing (June09 - 0.8399) and project that distance from the breakout point.
So if we breakout here around 0.8680 then the projected target could be 0.7277, which sounds wild but looks very reasonable on a weekly chart.
That kind of lines up with the 78.2 fib retracement from the 07 lows to the 08 highs.
I would expect a bounces at 0.8180 and 0.7785
I think a lot of traders have been looking at this chart. It might be the reason cable has been so well bid.
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  • #11,660
  • Apr 21, 2010 7:05pm Apr 21, 2010 7:05pm
This is my 1st post in this great forum. I've been trading for some years now, stocks, stock options and 4x, without much consistency. Now I'm starting to get it. Let me thank all of you guys for your generosity sharing your experience and ideas. Thank you Strat and the whole band of great mentors over here, you've added a fresh dimension to the way I see trading. Since this is my first post, allow me to thank other guys in other areas of FF since I've been lurking for a while: Merlin, James16, Diallist, Jacko, BRV, SMJones, Igrok, Trader_price, NightMoves, Skunny, Bobokus, Hussin_naiji, Bemac, DanUK and others that escape my mind. Thank you all @ ForexFactory, as a long time lurker of this forum, I think I've gotten myself here the best trading education available for free and certainly the very best mentors. In this often lonely job it's very comforting to have people sharing the same interest the way FF allows us. Thank you guys.
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