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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #2,061
  • Apr 20, 2010 7:12pm Apr 20, 2010 7:12pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
E/U

I'm betting on USD strength from now on till the end of the week as silver and gold failed to impress. having said and considering bearish weekly div at A/U and bullish at U/Cad weekly , short on A/U (.9315) ,E/U (1.3440) and long on U/Cad (.9982) are in play , wide stop over the top and bottom for A/U and U/Cad for E/U SL is 1.3450 (all the charts posted before)
Hey there Shahab...
Nice to see you around again. Hope you are doin fine!

For the E/U I was lookin for the opposite direction actually. (short term only)

Had a buy limit @ 1.3420 (beein weekly S1 and yesterday's support)
Aiming for a bounce back up to the daily pivot @ 1.3461

hasn't been filled now (by a lowsy 0.5 pips I think)
not a hard bounce but seems it would have been good for a few pips at least. never mind...

your SL for EU is @ 1.3450? so you don't expect a bounce back up to the daily pivot? (As I am not in the trade now and deleted my pending order I hope for you it doesn't )

Good luck to you!


-Tuner-
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 21 KB
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #2,062
  • Apr 20, 2010 7:37pm Apr 20, 2010 7:37pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting Tuner
your SL for EU is @ 1.3450? so you don't expect a bounce back up to the daily pivot? (As I am not in the trade now and deleted my pending order I hope for you it doesn't )
OK... we cracked that sup and weekly S1 now think it goes into "your" direction now

and my short U/CHF from before did hit the SL now (-15)
--> off to bed
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #2,063
  • Apr 20, 2010 9:00pm Apr 20, 2010 9:00pm
quick checkup of the eurgbp just in case anyone took the trade........ it closed the gap and continued to fall thru 8745.....

now almost looks like it regrets the move..... only 100 pips roughly..... current possible retracement .5 fib is at 8788.......

if it continues present course, the next lower target is 8704....... followed by 8405, then 7705......

a manual trader might take off half of'em and leave the deep in the money positions to ride it out......h
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp checkup.gif Size: 40 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #2,064
  • Apr 21, 2010 1:51am Apr 21, 2010 1:51am
Quoting Patience
Hey - nice of you to pop in Let's see if E/G can eek out some more losses although they aren't heavily short Cable. Feel free to throw a pitchfork or two (or your thoughts) into the mix. Gawd knows I need all the technical help I can get.
I would have posted this earlier. Hope it helps. You will see the Euro should outperform GBP today. Lets see what happens. You got the additional move you wanted last night.
Attached Image
  • #2,065
  • Apr 21, 2010 4:08am Apr 21, 2010 4:08am
Quoting Atlast
I would have posted this earlier. Hope it helps. You will see the Euro should outperform GBP today. Lets see what happens. You got the additional move you wanted last night.
Thanks for that. Claims down but unemployment rate up? Not sure what to make of it although I'm not feeling a buy at the moment. Could get a double bottom (1 hour chart attached).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eg-1hour.jpg Size: 146 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Market_Strategy_Daily_21_Apr_2010.pdf   158 KB | 361 downloads
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,066
  • Apr 21, 2010 4:49am Apr 21, 2010 4:49am
Uggghhhh, Loonie is even more extreme this morning.

SSI: Retail GBPUSD Traders Fade Two-Day Rally, Shorts Jump 11%
Wednesday, 21 Apr 2010 09:17 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, DailyFX Research

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: p40.png Size: 247 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: p41.png Size: 167 KB


Intraday Highlight:

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.14 as nearly 53% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.01 as 50% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 1.0% lower than yesterday and 25.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 11.4% higher than yesterday and 12.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.2% stronger than yesterday and 6.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.59 as nearly 61% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.66 as 62% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.4% lower than yesterday and 95.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.4% higher than yesterday and 14.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.6% weaker than yesterday and 14.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.18 as nearly 54% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.27 as 56% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 6.3% higher than yesterday and 31.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.2% lower than yesterday and 9.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.1% stronger than yesterday and 8.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.38 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.40 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.3% higher than yesterday and 23.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.2% higher than yesterday and 19.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.1% stronger than yesterday and 4.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 5.12 as nearly 84% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.19 as 81% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 13.8% higher than yesterday and 14.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 7.0% lower than yesterday and 12.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 9.8% stronger than yesterday and 25.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at -1.08 as nearly 52% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.22 as 55% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 7.4% higher than yesterday and 31.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.8% lower than yesterday and 89.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.7% stronger than yesterday and 13.3% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF gains.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.51 as nearly 60% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.48 as 60% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 1.9% higher than yesterday and 47.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.3% higher than yesterday and 17.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.4% stronger than yesterday and 22.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.00 as nearly 50% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.02 as 50% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.0% lower than yesterday and 10.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.5% higher than yesterday and 3.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.7% stronger than yesterday and 1.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,067
  • Apr 21, 2010 5:06am Apr 21, 2010 5:06am
i think bst thing to do is tk geppyg's advice (chart on his thread), have larger stops than normal and keep addign longs, if one is already long and willing to take the risk.

else go short. have a pending short at 991, which is break of lowest recent low.

[quote=Patience;3657143]Uggghhhh, Loonie is even more extreme this morning.
  • #2,068
  • Apr 21, 2010 6:29am Apr 21, 2010 6:29am
Quoting shahab8b
E/U

I'm betting on USD strength from now on till the end of the week as silver and gold failed to impress. having said and considering bearish weekly div at A/U and bullish at U/Cad weekly , short on A/U (.9315) ,E/U (1.3440) and long on U/Cad (.9982) are in play , wide stop over the top and bottom for A/U and U/Cad for E/U SL is 1.3450 (all the charts posted before)

being loaded up with short A/U from .9315-35 & short E/U, long U/Cad from .9982-.9932 , I'm looking for USD strength
  • #2,069
  • Apr 21, 2010 8:14am Apr 21, 2010 8:14am
Quoting Patience
Uggghhhh, Loonie is even more extreme this morning.

hey p...... your hurtin my feelin's talkin about my girl like that..... me and miss loonie are striking up a long term realtionship..... so if you see 2 Uggghhhh loonie's walkin around the next conferarate railroad concert, it's us'es......

//----

thanks for the pdf... noticed the recession graph.... wonder if by comparing the eurusd to those times if we could possibly get a view of things to come.... of course those charts are months and quarters so it's long term thinking.....

my thoughts are leaning that way......

//-----

eurgbp is going to have to do some real clawing to get out that downtrend channel....h
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd-monthly-1972.gif Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp checkup 2.gif Size: 36 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #2,070
  • Apr 21, 2010 9:30am Apr 21, 2010 9:30am
Quoting Tuner
Hey there Shahab...
Nice to see you around again. Hope you are doin fine!

For the E/U I was lookin for the opposite direction actually. (short term only)

Had a buy limit @ 1.3420 (beein weekly S1 and yesterday's support)
Aiming for a bounce back up to the daily pivot @ 1.3461

hasn't been filled now (by a lowsy 0.5 pips I think)
not a hard bounce but seems it would have been good for a few pips at...
Hi Tuner, hope all is well,
I'm doing alright, trade wise hasn't been good though, taking some losses on shorting G/J earlier this week, but the trade on long U/J and short E/U put me in B/E , atm shorting A/U ,E/U long U/Cad and U/J and short Silver, wide stop on A/U and U/Cad as I'm building positions for the mid term USD strenght coming
  • #2,071
  • Apr 21, 2010 9:34am Apr 21, 2010 9:34am
Quoting Patience
Thanks for that. Claims down but unemployment rate up? Not sure what to make of it although I'm not feeling a buy at the moment. Could get a double bottom (1 hour chart attached).

Attachment
Good feeling works for you. The pitchfork invalidated. New analysis below. I'm not trading EURGBP, though would welcome some pound weakness against the USD as I have a sell in progress.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #2,072
  • Apr 21, 2010 9:49am Apr 21, 2010 9:49am
I recived a question regarding the Trend Following Model (TFM) that I use

here is the method:

use two indicators
1-daily pivot -red line
2-LSR (level-stop-reverse v2) - blue line

when hr candle closes below them short, when it closes above them long
as simple as that, but remember you need to wait for the first candle signal which happens every 2-3 days as it indicates a new short term cycle (bull/bear),don't jump in in the midle of the cycle

atm we need to see if this hr candle can close below LSR and daily pivot that would be a sell signal for A/U
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au5h.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #2,073
  • Apr 21, 2010 9:59am Apr 21, 2010 9:59am
Here is my TFM

E/U, note the false sell and buy signals


in summary if you use some S/L on the chart you will know which signal is more valid
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu5b.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #2,074
  • Apr 21, 2010 10:09am Apr 21, 2010 10:09am
I tot this thread is about using COT to play?
Forex Price Action Hacked - Price Action Rockstar
  • #2,075
  • Apr 21, 2010 10:14am Apr 21, 2010 10:14am
Quoting david_akc
I tot this thread is about using COT to play?
Hi David, it's COT + trade ideas ,
I looked at your blog, seems very interesting ,I will read through it soon
  • #2,076
  • Apr 21, 2010 10:30am Apr 21, 2010 10:30am
Quoting shahab8b
being loaded up with short A/U from .9315-35 & short E/U, long U/Cad from .9982-.9932 , I'm looking for USD strength
finally
  • #2,077
  • Apr 21, 2010 10:44am Apr 21, 2010 10:44am
Quoting shahab8b
finally
I will be buying from .9250
  • #2,078
  • Apr 21, 2010 10:45am Apr 21, 2010 10:45am
Quoting hayseed
quick checkup of the eurgbp just in case anyone took the trade........ it closed the gap and continued to fall thru 8745.....

now almost looks like it regrets the move..... only 100 pips roughly..... current possible retracement .5 fib is at 8788.......

if it continues present course, the next lower target is 8704....... followed by 8405, then 7705......

a manual trader might take off half of'em and leave the deep in the money positions to ride it out......h
Hi there, hope all your trades are green,
what do you think of making an EA based on this #2073 ?
  • #2,079
  • Apr 21, 2010 10:47am Apr 21, 2010 10:47am
Quoting puks
I will be buying from .9250
hi buddy, good, follow your plan, and use a proper money management.
good luck
  • #2,080
  • Apr 21, 2010 11:13am Apr 21, 2010 11:13am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Tuner, hope all is well,
I'm doing alright, trade wise hasn't been good though, taking some losses on shorting G/J earlier this week, but the trade on long U/J and short E/U put me in B/E , atm shorting A/U ,E/U long U/Cad and U/J and short Silver, wide stop on A/U and U/Cad as I'm building positions for the mid term USD strenght coming
Hi Shahab,
I burnt my fingers as well on the G/J and A/U (once again)
After trading the gaps with nice profits Sunday night I went into those trades with much to high risk.
So my account has been bleeding really hard.
Own fault: didn't stick to the plan and my own rules of MM. So I learnt it the hard way once again.
Still a long way to go for me. But I'll hang in there
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
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