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ALF/TVI - Simple, effective daytrading

  • #461
  • Apr 21, 2010 1:33am Apr 21, 2010 1:33am
I think you can not prevent it.
The Road appears under the steps of walking men...
  • #462
  • Apr 21, 2010 1:39am Apr 21, 2010 1:39am
i just long GU, u think is ok?
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  • #463
  • Apr 21, 2010 2:18am Apr 21, 2010 2:18am
Quoting KPForex
i just long GU, u think is ok?
If you entered at the close of the bar yes, it seems ok. +20 you should got. But you should wait for bar close, if not you risk to see bar closed in opposite direction. So according to the what I see on your chart you do not follow rules.
The Road appears under the steps of walking men...
  • #464
  • Apr 21, 2010 6:11am Apr 21, 2010 6:11am
Possibly a retracement - longer TFs are below ALF. Good time to wait...
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Old Benjamin was right
  • #465
  • Edited 6:25am Apr 21, 2010 6:24am | Edited 6:25am
Quoting KPForex
went short just now and hit my SL.. any body know hw to prevent?..
There is no way to prevent trades from turning against you, but...

IMO, stops are not made to be hit - they are there to protect against disaster (your DSL goes down, computer crashes, etc.). If trade turns against you, get out - there will be another signal coming up.

Study charts of successful trades - they seldom reverse by much.
Old Benjamin was right
  • #466
  • Apr 21, 2010 6:28am Apr 21, 2010 6:28am
Quoting caodd
Thanks Lou and all of you guys efforts.
Couldn't get sleep, so made a trade, trying to have the edge. 23 pips, sell order.

Wish you guys the best luck for today's trading.
Good trade - by the book...
Old Benjamin was right
  • #467
  • Apr 21, 2010 6:38am Apr 21, 2010 6:38am
In at Price cross of ALF and upward TVI, out at + 15 pips (I pulled trigger to get out at 13 pips profit and slippage was bonus). I jumped out of trade for a few reasons, 1. 1.3400 is big number once crossed I have noticed historically will go back to it (and a little more) to retest. 2. no real news events but speeches. 3. After sharp move a retrace of 50% is not unexpected. 4. Price reaching previous support line.

Nice Job on this method Lou,

Mark
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EllisEdi Moving on to my next trade ...
  • #468
  • Edited 6:48am Apr 21, 2010 6:47am | Edited 6:48am
Check this H1 chart - ask yourself "what is PA direction - is this a retracement?"

I honestly don't know so I'm still waiting...

And, I could be WRONG.
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Old Benjamin was right
  • #469
  • Edited 7:04am Apr 21, 2010 7:03am | Edited 7:04am
Gee, do ya think?

The courageous could have taken +10 but I did not do so...

Congrats if you did...
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Old Benjamin was right
  • #470
  • Apr 21, 2010 7:03am Apr 21, 2010 7:03am
Actually, for the shorter term (15 minutes chart) and the last move from 1.3442 down to 1.3358 , It is at least a 50% retracement (now showing a 61.85 retracement) maybe truning into a short term reversal.

When I took the trade I did look at the 1hr and the 4 hr and noticed overall the trend is down for this week so far and both were currently below the ALF. Since I realized that this trade was against the overall trend I decided that whenever I got close to 15 pips profit I would close the position. I originally targeted 10 pips then switched in mid trade to 15 then switched again to get out with 13. Bad I know, but greed then fear took hold a bit and I tried to correct. I also would have exited if the TVI changed color or if we peirced the Alf downward by 5 pips (which is a 1:1 risk reward plan). My position size was half of my usual size.

I try not to over analyze when getting into a trade but when exiting if I see more than a couple of warnings I get out.
EllisEdi Moving on to my next trade ...
  • #471
  • Edited 7:23am Apr 21, 2010 7:07am | Edited 7:23am
Quoting EllisEdi
In at Price cross of ALF and upward TVI, out at + 15 pips (I pulled trigger to get out at 13 pips profit and slippage was bonus). I jumped out of trade for a few reasons, 1. 1.3400 is big number once crossed I have noticed historically will go back to it (and a little more) to retest. 2. no real news events but speeches. 3. After sharp move a retrace of 50% is not unexpected. 4. Price reaching previous support line.

Nice Job on this method Lou,

Mark
me too I got out around 1.3395 around support on 15minute chart. I left one pip to play looking at 30 minute TVI turn green and price action moving steadily up but TVI and price below ALF down on the 1hr. I have to see if I should be patient with the 1hr for "better" confirmation.

1.3403 are price action shows eur/usd losing steam i remove my last pip out from play.
Also, I have to be aware of using my take profit and leaving one pip to play and stop loss better.


I think it might be better to leave profit from the table as a whole rather than leave a pip or two in play Ill have to see.Like lou said stop loss is mainly for emergency. If it does not look right just get out.


thank you lou for introducing this system to us.
  • #472
  • Apr 21, 2010 7:15am Apr 21, 2010 7:15am
See the highlighted area - this is what a good trade looks like. Note that PA never turned more than a few pips against the trade...
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Old Benjamin was right
  • #473
  • Apr 21, 2010 7:18am Apr 21, 2010 7:18am
Quoting wapminnin
me too I got out around 1.3405 around support on 15minute chart. I left one pip to play looking at 30 minute TVI turn green and price action moving steadily up but TVI and price below ALF down on the 1hr. I have to see if I should be patient with the 1hr for "better" confirmation....
You're welcome (and EllisEdi is too)

Good analysis and I'm glad you guys made a few pips - I'm feeling cautious today...
Old Benjamin was right
  • #474
  • Apr 21, 2010 7:24am Apr 21, 2010 7:24am
I usually do a post trade analysis fo my own records.

This trade was a bit too risky to enter. With no major news for investors to speculate on, I was lucky to get the pips I did. The technicals seemed to be there, but I should have realized that price will probably hover around in a range for the early US session.

Well, that sucks. Positive reinforcement of a bad decision. This trade is in my trading journal marked as a lesson to learn from.

Mark
EllisEdi Moving on to my next trade ...
  • #475
  • Apr 21, 2010 8:15am Apr 21, 2010 8:15am
I wanted to take a bit of time to thank Lou for sharing this method with us. It is a clean and simple method with room for personal analysis to help filter trades. Thank you Lou for sharing this method and continuing to post your trades and thoughts.

Mark
EllisEdi Moving on to my next trade ...
  • #476
  • Edited 8:48am Apr 21, 2010 8:46am | Edited 8:48am
Quoting EllisEdi
I wanted to take a bit of time to thank Lou for sharing this method with us. It is a clean and simple method with room for personal analysis to help filter trades. Thank you Lou for sharing this method and continuing to post your trades and thoughts.

Mark
You're welcome, Mark - haven't seen you since the Renko days, glad you're here.

Just tried a short - EU at 1.3375 - but no selling enthusiasm. Lost 5 pips.

Guess I'll hang it up for today - what a blah market...
Old Benjamin was right
  • #477
  • Apr 21, 2010 12:07pm Apr 21, 2010 12:07pm
Hi All,

Just took the short trade below on the Canadian Dollar for 9 pips.

Good trading All!

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  • #478
  • Apr 22, 2010 2:32am Apr 22, 2010 2:32am
Hi Lou G
I have some difficuities about retracement in this Strategy (ALT/TVI in 15M)
My question is, how do you treat the retracement please.

Kind regards
gopsat.
  • #479
  • Apr 22, 2010 6:13am Apr 22, 2010 6:13am
Took a short EU @ 1.3325 but no selling enthusiasm developed. Closed trade at +1 pip.

Perhaps everyone is waiting for the Euro news in 45 minutes.
Old Benjamin was right
  • #480
  • Edited 6:24am Apr 22, 2010 6:14am | Edited 6:24am
Hey all,
This looks like a tough day with 8:30 unemployment claims and 10:00 Home sales numbers along with G20 all day in europe leaves me thinking of staying on the sidelines today.
Also of note is big resistance around 1.3300 (from 3/26 and 4/08). This resistance is the lowest in quite a while (almost a year).

But after all this analysis I took a short trade at 1.3323 and out for a quick +10 pips. A nice entry signal except for the TVI which, while the right color, has already been to a nice low recently (in the london session). I jumped out early due to all my concerns listed above.

Edit : Whoops i noticed I put the arrow on the signal candle not the entry candle (which is the candle after the signal candle) ...

Mark
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EllisEdi Moving on to my next trade ...
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