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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #22,321
  • Apr 21, 2010 6:45am Apr 21, 2010 6:45am
Quoting AlwaysLearn
Thanks for the comments. I entered the trade a little early as that candle closed 8PM my time. By the time the next candle closed, I would have been asleep. I attached the continuation of the chart. It did break through the 200SMA before resisting at 365EMA. Now it seems like a round top is forming or will it be a trend continuation? Did not enter this trade as the sl to the 89SMA is more than 90 pips. What are your views?
AL:

If you drew the fib #'s from that most recent high to low, I owould guess that the 50% number would be right around where the price is now. It can linger here per that number. watch for the lower moving average to get 'bundle up' around this number and the direction difficult...90 pips is a big SL so not entering is fine. I'd wait for the market to make a move to the next Fib level...
  • #22,322
  • Apr 21, 2010 6:48am Apr 21, 2010 6:48am
Using a lower lot size, especially on a higher time frame, does give your position more room to breathe. I started doing this a few years back and it has helped out quite a bit....
  • #22,323
  • Apr 21, 2010 7:29am Apr 21, 2010 7:29am
Good Morning all,

I can see some of you also took the TC (long GBP/USD) signal this morning, and there are number of questions around stops / entry points etc. I decided to answer most of these in a live video to show you exactly where and when I entered to hopefully give you guys some idea of how to minimize the risk.

Inserted Video


Please rate and comment on the video as it helps others learn.

Any questions please get in contact.

Cheers WG
  • #22,324
  • Apr 22, 2010 12:25am Apr 22, 2010 12:25am
Anyone trade USDJPY today? Can I have your view on this pair?
  • #22,325
  • Edited 3:05am Apr 22, 2010 2:46am | Edited 3:05am
Quoting silverfox88
Anyone trade USDJPY today? Can I have your view on this pair?
Hi Silverfox.

UJ bounced off the 200 SMA and was heading upwards when it hit resistance at the 89 SMA. It pulled back to the 21 EMA and is now proceeding upwards. It may test the 89 again and pull back but overall the direction should be to the upside.

The long term direction of UJ is clearer on the DAILY chart. IMO it has spent a lot of time making a base similar to an inverted head and shoulders (but not quite one) and is breaking to the upside.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj4hr.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: uj1d.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #22,326
  • Apr 22, 2010 3:21am Apr 22, 2010 3:21am
Quoting xeneric
Hi Silverfox.

UJ bounced off the 200 SMA and was heading upwards when it hit resistance at the 89 SMA. It pulled back to the 21 EMA and is now proceeding upwards. It may test the 89 again and pull back but overall the direction should be to the upside.

The long term direction of UJ is clearer on the DAILY chart. IMO it has spent a lot of time making a base similar to an inverted head and shoulders (but not quite one) and is breaking to the upside.
Hi Xeneric,
Thank you for your guidance. You view is greatly appreciated!
  • #22,327
  • Apr 22, 2010 5:32am Apr 22, 2010 5:32am
Quoting welshguy2000

Please rate and comment on the video as it helps others learn.

Any questions please get in contact.

Cheers WG
Just remind me how many thousand dollars I was going to earn on this move up?

In your video your strategy bears no resemblance to the 4 hour strategy (MACD) that the thread is based on.

So to rate the video I would say about 2/10. I mean chopping about time frames and pointing out higher highs and lower highs? Mentioning how many thousands we are making?

How much does your course cost?
Gone to a better place
  • #22,328
  • Apr 22, 2010 6:21pm Apr 22, 2010 6:21pm
Took this off the 1hr a few bars back. Not sure why the EU is tanking right now but +80 on the last lot at b/e.

Price has been riding the 8ema for a while on the 1hr. I was thinking triple bottom on the daily a few pages back....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu1.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #22,329
  • Apr 22, 2010 8:31pm Apr 22, 2010 8:31pm
Quoting Palmer
Took this off the 1hr a few bars back. Not sure why the EU is tanking right now but +80 on the last lot at b/e.

Price has been riding the 8ema for a while on the 1hr. I was thinking triple bottom on the daily a few pages back....
You always seem to catch those trends. What do you look for in those situations? Do you see it coming or go down to a smaller time frame to catch it once it has started?
Nice job, congrats
Raymond
  • #22,330
  • Edited 8:57pm Apr 22, 2010 8:45pm | Edited 8:57pm
Quoting Morelands
You always seem to catch those trends. What do you look for in those situations? Do you see it coming or go down to a smaller time frame to catch it once it has started?
Nice job, congrats
Raymond
Palmer, I want to know how you catch those great moves too. Do you set an alert where the 21 EMA is ?
I am going to give you a new nickname from now on - Bladerunner.
  • #22,331
  • Edited Apr 23, 2010 2:35am Apr 22, 2010 8:55pm | Edited Apr 23, 2010 2:35am
Quoting welshguy2000
Good Morning all,

I can see some of you also took the TC (long GBP/USD) signal this morning, and there are number of questions around stops / entry points etc. I decided to answer most of these in a live video to show you exactly where and when I entered to hopefully give you guys some idea of how to minimize the risk.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8Rw4jGJglw

Please rate and comment on the video as it helps others learn.

Any questions please get in contact.

Cheers WG
Hi WG. Thanks for the video again. I know that you find trading very easy but telling beginners that they will make in excess of $3000 for a 70 pip trade may not be the way to go. Most beginners would be very distraught if they lost over $3000 for every 70 pips they lost. And although you have the experience to close a trade when it works against you, I doubt very much if everyone would have the disclipine to do it even if you taught them all the skills in your course.
  • #22,332
  • Apr 22, 2010 9:05pm Apr 22, 2010 9:05pm
I caught the trend in 1hr too but off the doji. I was looking at the next hour when it suddenly drop like a stone and created the bullish engulfing. I just jumped in. I jumped in because in 4 hr, it's really just a down trend.

This whole month, just riding the downtrend makes a lot of pips. I only started paper trading since Feb. April is ridiculously profitable. but......there is a very big concern now.

looking back at my trades, most of them are profitable because I ride the trend. How do we tell when the trend is really reversing and going back up? I mean, one of these days, I'm going to get so accustom to shorting until I keep getting wrong when the trend changes. The down trend will not continue forever right?
  • #22,333
  • Apr 22, 2010 9:07pm Apr 22, 2010 9:07pm
Take a look at the 1hr chart here:

Pay no attention to the Lagurre or the other two color bar indys. Hmmm, someone said BladeRunner I believe...Look how price has been hugging the 8EMA since about April 14. It breaks above it here and there, hits the 21 and comes back down. The 4hr is trending down nicely as well. A few pages back I mentioned something to the affect of the daily looking like it wants to make a triple bottom, whether it blasts through that, stalls, or bonces back up is anyone's guess. I was thinking more in terms of price actually getting to that area. I had a long term trendline on another chart that I put here that goes all the way back to late November

I have to admit that I have been spending a lot of time on the concept of the BladeRunner on the lower timeframes. All of these 'ingredients' came together...price hugging the 8, the MACD signal, triple bottom bias, and the trendline acting as resistance along with the MACD. There was a gap that needed to be filled on the downside as well. Everything lined up and I pulled the trigger. But, if the 4hr had not been trending down like it was and the chart was hard to read, I would have been sitting on my hands for sure. 'Sometimes' the 1hr chart looks exactly like the 4hr chart in terms of how the price action is reacting to where the moving averages are, specifically with the 8 and 21. The 1hr chart here is one of those times....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu1hr.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #22,334
  • Apr 22, 2010 9:12pm Apr 22, 2010 9:12pm
Quoting Palmer
Take a look at the 1hr chart here:

Pay no attention to the Lagurre or the other two color bar indys. Hmmm, someone said BladeRunner I believe...Look how price has been hugging the 8EMA since about April 14. It breaks above it here and there, hits the 21 and comes back down. The 4hr is trending down nicely as well. A few pages back I mentioned something to the affect of the daily looking like it wants to make a triple bottom, whether it blasts through that, stalls, or bonces back up is anyone's guess. I was thinking more in terms of price actually...
Thanks Palmer.
  • #22,335
  • Apr 22, 2010 9:13pm Apr 22, 2010 9:13pm
Quoting wuming79
I caught the trend in 1hr too but off the doji. I was looking at the next hour when it suddenly drop like a stone and created the bullish engulfing. I just jumped in. I jumped in because in 4 hr, it's really just a down trend.

This whole month, just riding the downtrend makes a lot of pips. I only started paper trading since Feb. April is ridiculously profitable. but......there is a very big concern now.

It's good you are concerned..meaning..trading is not easy so it's good to keep your emotions in check.

looking back at my trades, most of...
Noooope so take out chunks here and there when you can....
  • #22,336
  • Apr 22, 2010 9:26pm Apr 22, 2010 9:26pm
gerald2000:

As far as finding price targets goes...Look at the areas around the Fib#'s, not exactly at the Fib#'s give them +/- 10, 15 pips so. Previous support and resistance areas (lines) are very useful. I use them quite a bit. Look at the weekly chart here. We are now in a new 'area' here on the 4hr since price has broken through, or is attempting to, break through support here.

For targets to take profit on, the next area could be the 365, then the 23.6 Fib. After that I look for previous price bars where price had a hard tiem breaking through previous highs or lows. In this case the aqua colored lines. Again, if one of these lines is drawn at the 1.2950 price level, I use that as a price area..1.2965 or 1.2935 or so.

There are no rules set in stone that you can only take a profit when you have + 50 pips floating. I always look for right around 20 as the first target no matter what on the 4hr. Then a little more on the next lot, then tighten up the stop on the last lot (or whatever is left from my original position) and just let it do it's thing.

If you want to use a larger stop and not potentially lose more money, use a lower leverage. Don't be concerned with how much money you can make, be keyed in on getting the entry direction correct with enough room for your position to breathe...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euw.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #22,337
  • Edited Apr 23, 2010 2:32am Apr 22, 2010 10:25pm | Edited Apr 23, 2010 2:32am
Reason to trade:

1. Price has formed doji in D1 right below yellow TL and 55 MA which is a good sign for possible reversal.
2. Price has formed HL in the last swing high in D1.
3. Price has formed TC morning star with previous bearish candle reversal in 2010.04.22 08:00 H4 chart.

Execution:

* sell gbpusd @ 1.5339
EDIT: SL HIT -46 pips
Guess you're right xeneric... Caught me this time...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-04-23 gbpusd (d1).gif Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-04-23 gbpusd (h4).gif Size: 46 KB
  • #22,338
  • Edited Apr 23, 2010 3:06am Apr 22, 2010 11:07pm | Edited Apr 23, 2010 3:06am
Quoting hammerhead
Reason to trade:

1. Price has formed doji in D1 right below yellow TL and 55 MA which is a good sign for possible reversal.
2. Price has formed HL in the last swing high in D1.
3. Price has formed TC morning star with previous bearish candle reversal in 2010.04.22 08:00 H4 chart.

Execution:

* sell gbpusd @ 1.5339
I think it will bounce off that level and continue with the uptrend. It bounced off the 89 and the 4 hr trendline.
  • #22,339
  • Apr 23, 2010 3:56am Apr 23, 2010 3:56am
Quoting wuming79
looking back at my trades, most of them are profitable because I ride the trend. How do we tell when the trend is really reversing and going back up? I mean, one of these days, I'm going to get so accustom to shorting until I keep getting wrong when the trend changes. The down trend will not continue forever right?
Er...anybody has an answer on this? Or is it documented on page one? I can;t remember which article. Pls help.
  • #22,340
  • Apr 23, 2010 4:06am Apr 23, 2010 4:06am
Wow, big green candle in 1 hour chart. Is this the turning point in EURUSD? But 21MA is still above it.

Question: Following the trend following method, we should be waiting for price to reach 21 and wait for MACD to turn. 1hr chart probably will show 21MA and 8MA in uptrend mode. So....do we turn our direction to bull or remind bear now?
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