Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

No I didn't buy as I wasn't sure of these Goldman sucks thing and market was doing weird things so I stayed out.

I wanted to buy at .9150 and had my orders placed there but never got filled.

this is second time in 2 weeks my long orders didn't get filled from the round numbers. 9220 previously and 9150 last night.

Need to change the strategy to put limit orders at 3-7 pips higher.

I don't like to call anybody a fool but I'll reserve my opinion on that one.




Even when the Queen went to visit the London School of Economics she asked "Why did nobody notice it?" They couldn't really give an answer.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/news...ch-coming.html


And, don't forget, they laughed at this guy

"Even when the Queen went to visit the London School of Economics she asked "Why did nobody notice it?""

with due respect, that's the easiest question to ask post event.

At 145.02 (62% fib of large move + Channel top + megaphone pattern)
Stop: 146
TP: 144, 142 and 139

..... knives are like screwdivers, you can't have enough.......

//-----

i'll be buying the next 1000 pips down and/or the next 500 up......

we are sitting in the usdcad weekly 23.6 fib line +/- a few ...... which is dead center the 500 pip 2007 congestion area....

both the dow and s&p are at and having trouble getting thru the 61.8 fib...... macds showing negative divergence........ both mcclellan summation oscillators are near the all too critical -100.....

with the tax effect winding down along with the fed free money and the up coming mortgage issue, buying the market will be one tough row to hoe.....


might not be as bad as 2007-2009 but still..... my mind is leaning slightly and slowly towards risk adverse pairs and bear funds...... a 9 month horizion with a similar view of the aussie d.....h

And your point is???

The last hurrah? Sort of reminds me of when E/U double topped in July 2008. I'm very wary at these levels for A/U and A/J because I know there will come a time when I'll say to myself "and I wanted to buy at 0.93xx". Ranges are getting smaller and smaller as well. If nothing big happens for the next few months we could just range for the summer and then have a nice big Christmas rally come September (down). As Shahab said, there is wicked weekly divergence on both A/U and A/J. But in a market with no yield, they are so attractive.

Looks like the Loonie is in shock Get the defibrillator out.

Looks like the Loonie is in shock Get the defibrillator out.[/quote]

Of course it is, just as soon as I trade it

that it is very easy to ask that question in hindsight. presumably the Queen has highly intelligent fund advisors and wealth managers. didnt they see it coming?

the doc and defib are on the way..... but somebody better keep an eye out for nurse elle driver....... h

Just took a lil short on U/CHF from 1.0685
tight SL of 15 pips, aiming for 60 pips.
(or playin it safe and go for 40 pips = daily pivot @ 1.0644)


Reason:
1.069 as a solid area of resistance (...for now)
Has been Res. as well as Sup. several times.

--> Lookin at yesterdays PA this level was testet several times before bouncing down from it. so I might have to be patient..
61.8 fibs have been broken. seein the current H4 candle closing below that will make me more confident.

lets see how will work out.
(not the best time to enter maybe..as market seems to be sleeping at the moment )

-Tuner-

ROLF - great movie. Sentiment has been flip flopping the last few days but here's an update.

SSI: EURUSD and USDCAD Long Interest Soars Over 50% from Monday
Tuesday, 20 Apr 2010 19:18 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:



Intraday Highlight:

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 4.70 as nearly 82% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.99 as 67% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 56.6% higher than yesterday and 6.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 33.6% lower than yesterday and 5.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 26.5% stronger than yesterday and 15.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.62 as nearly 62% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.01 as 50% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 52.9% higher than yesterday and 43.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.8% lower than yesterday and 10.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 24.2% stronger than yesterday and 18.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.04 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.29 as 56% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 15.4% higher than yesterday and 5.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 7.0% lower than yesterday and 13.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.8% stronger than yesterday and 0.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.27 as nearly 56% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.04 as 51% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 13.3% lower than yesterday and 9.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 6.6% higher than yesterday and 18.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.2% weaker than yesterday and 6.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.39 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.15 as 68% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 22.1% lower than yesterday and 9.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 20.6% higher than yesterday and 11.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 8.5% weaker than yesterday and 1.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at -1.04 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.52 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 26.8% lower than yesterday and 37.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 15.3% higher than yesterday and 80.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 10.1% weaker than yesterday and 22.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF gains.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.46 as nearly 59% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.04 as 51% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 3.7% higher than yesterday and 11.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 45.3% higher than yesterday and 39.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 25.0% stronger than yesterday and 20.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.02 as nearly 50% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.23 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 14.2% lower than yesterday and 6.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.7% higher than yesterday and 4.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.4% weaker than yesterday and 0.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

Some people did see it. There were several instances of risk managers in various big banks sounding the alarm. They were fired. Peter Schiff got laughed at. When the good times roll, nobody wants to listen to the pessimists.

Silver: May be it's going to be the time for USD bull run again , the fall is impulsive and upward move is corrective in nature.

Now I understand why EU has moved to the lows.

Hey - nice of you to pop in Let's see if E/G can eek out some more losses although they aren't heavily short Cable. Feel free to throw a pitchfork or two (or your thoughts) into the mix. Gawd knows I need all the technical help I can get.

Hey Kim - was just looking the Loonie again. Whacked another custom indicator on my chart (the one in the right hand corner) and it's looking pretty dire. They are so much fun these custom indicators. When USD gains the bars go a pretty bright green. GodfreyH's Jurik indicator has alerted me to a "buy" possibility on the 1 hour though. Let's see if it can touch daily pivot today.

E/U

I'm betting on USD strength from now on till the end of the week as silver and gold failed to impress. having said and considering bearish weekly div at A/U and bullish at U/Cad weekly , short on A/U (.9315) ,E/U (1.3440) and long on U/Cad (.9982) are in play , wide stop over the top and bottom for A/U and U/Cad for E/U SL is 1.3450 (all the charts posted before)

G/U

pretty close to what was expected

What is your TP's on A/U and G/U?