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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #2,021
  • Apr 20, 2010 12:12am Apr 20, 2010 12:12am
Quoting shahab8b
G'day Patience ,
yea, someone should remind me of that, everything's pointing to USD weakness for the next few days.
it seems shorting A/U is what I have to do to waste the equity I'm getting from other trades,
A/U ,A/J short both deep in red, 13 and 16 pips to my SL respectively,
my entries are not bad though, I think it gives me the chance to close them at B/E
lol - I'm only pulling your leg E/U still looks like the one to short especially after Weber's comments yesterday http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...072402292.html

I'm undecided anyway .... at least you have a plan

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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,022
  • Apr 20, 2010 6:53am Apr 20, 2010 6:53am
U/Cad, a break below weekly pivot will make U/Cad bearish again, atm long is preferred RRR wise with SL below weekly pivot
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  • #2,023
  • Edited 7:22am Apr 20, 2010 7:07am | Edited 7:22am
hi SHAhab
happy to see your posts

chfyen240
http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/r3...j0ga_thumb.gif

Good luck
  • #2,024
  • Apr 20, 2010 7:34am Apr 20, 2010 7:34am
scalping short A/U at .9318,risk 1% for sl=10 tp=20
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  • #2,025
  • Apr 20, 2010 7:43am Apr 20, 2010 7:43am
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  • #2,026
  • Apr 20, 2010 8:09am Apr 20, 2010 8:09am
Ohhhhhh, look at the Loonie go. Sheesh. That daily pin yesterday worked it's magic. Golden Sacks also blew away estimates with their earnings today. US futures green - risk is on - back to la la land - don't stand in the way ....
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,027
  • Apr 20, 2010 8:15am Apr 20, 2010 8:15am
Just scored 50+ pips shorting loonie from 1.0120 but TP at 1.0060, should have waited 5 more mins but its OK.

Greed is not good :-)



Quoting Patience
Ohhhhhh, look at the Loonie go. Sheesh. That daily pin yesterday worked it's magic. Golden Sacks also blew away estimates with their earnings today. US futures green - risk is on - back to la la land - don't stand in the way ....
  • #2,028
  • Apr 20, 2010 8:16am Apr 20, 2010 8:16am
I am USD bear today against EUR and GBP.

PA is telling me that EUR and GBP want to go higher and EUR's inability to close below 1.3450 gives me opinion some strength.




Quoting puks
Just scored 50+ pips shorting loonie from 1.0120 but TP at 1.0060, should have waited 5 more mins but its OK.

Greed is not good :-)
  • #2,029
  • Apr 20, 2010 8:19am Apr 20, 2010 8:19am
Quoting puks
Just scored 50+ pips shorting loonie from 1.0120 but TP at 1.0060, should have waited 5 more mins but its OK.

Greed is not good :-)
Hi buddy, excellent trade ,
what did BOC say that created the CAD strength? do you know the news?
  • #2,030
  • Apr 20, 2010 8:24am Apr 20, 2010 8:24am
Quoting puks
Just scored 50+ pips shorting loonie from 1.0120 but TP at 1.0060, should have waited 5 more mins but its OK.

Greed is not good :-)
Nice one

Shahab - they've upped their growth forecasts even though they don't expect to raise rates until Q3 as expected. Actually they are removing their conditional commitment to keep rates low.

Anyone fancy catching the falling knife?? It's done 195% of it's ADR and 100% of it's average weekly range and it's only Tuesday!
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,031
  • Apr 20, 2010 8:28am Apr 20, 2010 8:28am
Quoting Patience
Nice one

Shahab - they've upped their growth forecasts even though they don't expect to raise rates until Q3 as expected. Actually they are removing their conditional commitment to keep rates low.

Anyone fancy catching the falling knife?? It's done 195% of it's ADR and 100% of it's average weekly range and it's only Tuesday!
I already got it at .9980, dont fancy a big move up tough, will tp with 20 pips, weekly S1 is .9998 it will touch it again my TP
  • #2,032
  • Apr 20, 2010 8:35am Apr 20, 2010 8:35am
Quoting shahab8b
I already got it at .9980, dont fancy a big move up tough, will tp with 20 pips, weekly S1 is .9998 it will touch it again my TP
Brilliant catch - that was fast. We've only done 40% of average monthly range. Could we really see another 250-300 pips down before month end? Could happen, still got 8 trading days after today.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,033
  • Apr 20, 2010 8:36am Apr 20, 2010 8:36am
Quoting Patience
Nice one

Shahab - they've upped their growth forecasts even though they don't expect to raise rates until Q3 as expected. Actually they are removing their conditional commitment to keep rates low.

Anyone fancy catching the falling knife?? It's done 195% of it's ADR and 100% of it's average weekly range and it's only Tuesday!
Patience Jay Walker posted something interesting to read #365
if you believe this all these moves are USD long opportunities for mid-long term
  • #2,034
  • Apr 20, 2010 8:41am Apr 20, 2010 8:41am
Quoting shahab8b
Patience Jay Walker posted something interesting to read #365
if you believe this all these moves are USD long opportunities for mid-long term
Yeah, I read that early this morning. They've been saying for ages the CRE market was the next shoe to drop. Either that or China blows up. What are they doing over there? Building shopping malls and office space all over the place that remain empty. Something has got to give.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,035
  • Apr 20, 2010 8:45am Apr 20, 2010 8:45am
Quoting Patience
Brilliant catch - that was fast. We've only done 40% of average monthly range. Could we really see another 250-300 pips down before month end? Could happen, still got 8 trading days after today.
it was good but not good enough to cover my yesterday losses.
I'm not sure but I think we are close to see a low and a high in U/Cad and A/U in place for midterm, (weekly charts,div ) ,we will see, may be one more push left.
  • #2,036
  • Apr 20, 2010 8:48am Apr 20, 2010 8:48am
Quoting puks
I am USD bear today against EUR and GBP.

PA is telling me that EUR and GBP want to go higher and EUR's inability to close below 1.3450 gives me opinion some strength.
Did you buy that dip in A/U yesterday? that would have been a perfect trade, I remember your plan was to buy dip on A/u and running them till .95
  • #2,037
  • Apr 20, 2010 8:54am Apr 20, 2010 8:54am
Quoting shahab8b
scalping short A/U at .9318,risk 1% for sl=10 tp=20
close them with 14 pips, 1.4 % return
stand aside atm, I need to go through the charts.
  • #2,038
  • Apr 20, 2010 8:55am Apr 20, 2010 8:55am
Quoting Patience
Yeah, I read that early this morning. They've been saying for ages the CRE market was the next shoe to drop. Either that or China blows up. What are they doing over there? Building shopping malls and office space all over the place that remain empty. Something has got to give.
There are always pessimists out there, no matter what.

People get paid to post their ideas/opinions. Central bankers around the world get paid to keep a healthy financial system in place.

Do you think that after a massive eye opener in terms of GFC, they would have left any stone unturned?

I dont think so...

Bernankes, Stevens, Kings, Trichets, etc are not fool.
  • #2,039
  • Apr 20, 2010 9:00am Apr 20, 2010 9:00am
Quoting shahab8b
it was good but not good enough to cover my yesterday losses.
I'm not sure but I think we are close to see a low and a high in U/Cad and A/U in place for midterm, (weekly charts,div ) ,we will see, may be one more push left.
Morgan Stanley are calling for low 80's by the end of the year for A/U. But I wouldn't listen to anything they say. They were calling for 0.53 in March 2009. That really worked out well. ROFL

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...efer=australia
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,040
  • Apr 20, 2010 9:05am Apr 20, 2010 9:05am
Quoting Patience
Morgan Stanley are calling for low 80's by the end of the year for A/U. But I wouldn't listen to anything they say. They were calling for 0.53 in March 2009. That really worked out well. ROFL

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...efer=australia
They are talking their position. (Morgan Stanley)

Good sources predict 95 (or may he high 96s) before 90.

place your bets.

try and pick Jonathan Canavagh (or something like that) from SMH - his commentary on AUD. He is usually spot on.
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