james16 Chart Thread | Page 3066 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

Attachments: james16 Chart Thread
Exit Attachments

james16 Chart Thread

  • #61,301
  • Apr 19, 2010 9:16pm Apr 19, 2010 9:16pm
Quoting shauns1966
Hi Scott

I've been considering this Pin for a couple of hours and have come to the same conclusion about the FTA, buffer and spread leaving very little room....
I don't follow the news, the charts tell me everything I need to know

Even though there isn't much room when we take the cost of the trade into account, if it breaks I think we should be good to see 1.01 as jarroo said before.

And even if you decide to pass and it does drop, you can sit back and smile because you followed your rules. And you knew what was likely to happen anyway

Scott
  • #61,302
  • Apr 19, 2010 9:25pm Apr 19, 2010 9:25pm
Quoting joelcf
It's definitely true, especially of late (hooray for choppy, ranging markets!). So you often end up with a situation as you said, which usually gives you a terrible risk to reward ratio and so kills your EV on the trade.
Joel,

Great post especially for those of us who look at R:R and stats

The R:R of the trade is also a piece of my "trade pie" that I take into account with all of my trades. However, it goes back to what Mike was saying..."is it worth it". I guess it's just a simpler way of looking at the setup. If the setup is nice but the FTA is too close, sometimes it's not even worth it for me to use a reduced stop to see if we can make it there, let alone a full bar stop.

I try to not get too caught up in the math behind the trade, but potential profit is always something I look at.

Great discussion guys

Scott
  • #61,303
  • Apr 19, 2010 9:34pm Apr 19, 2010 9:34pm
Quoting bundyraider
That's what I was coding into the word "overburdened". LOL

And it's so busy now. It used to be an awesome place to get from A to B.




Zzzzzactly.

Of course it could keep going for years why we 'smart' ones stay out of it, missing out. LOL
One day though, it'll have to return to fair value. Only more dramatically than it would have otherwise.
Just hope the real estate crash doesn't drag the rest of the Aus economy down with it
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #61,304
  • Apr 19, 2010 11:19pm Apr 19, 2010 11:19pm
Barclays - A BEOB with pin features close to a BRN of 400 which has historically been a tough cookie to crack.

I'm personally hoping this one fails or at least bounces back of 350 as I do hold this stock.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BARC 200410 D.JPG Size: 132 KB
  • #61,305
  • Apr 19, 2010 11:33pm Apr 19, 2010 11:33pm
Quoting jarroo
All good comments about today's setups. All I can say is these setups are what I look for . . .these are "high quality setups". But that's just me.

(Gbp/Usd 8 Hour PB close with 2/3 profit)
wanted to trade the aud/usd but wasnt sure about the gap. can i take it as a pin or is it risky?

thx
  • #61,306
  • Apr 19, 2010 11:41pm Apr 19, 2010 11:41pm
In an effort to keep R:R within certain bounds, at the moment I place my stop real tight (usually within 30 pips of entry). This is because I am hoping that a break of pins in good location would be a high momentum play. Ofcourse this also increases the amount of losers. For instance I took the USDCAD pin and have already been stopped out.

What do you think of my strategy & would you advise something different?


Many thanks,


Stef


Quoting mbqb11
Hey Gannina

There is no hard and fast rules here. You will see a wildly different array of trade mgmt techniques in this thread. James himself is very quick to move his stops to b/e though or take some off the table. There is no hard and fast rule, but a good starting place is to start to understand trouble areas and work from there. But with that said I have seen James take some of the table for none other reason then being up substantial actual $$ at a pip number. So there really are a lot of ways to make it work.

Wish I could give you more...
  • #61,307
  • Apr 19, 2010 11:46pm Apr 19, 2010 11:46pm
Quoting Pinnocchio_S
In an effort to keep R:R within certain bounds, at the moment I place my stop real tight (usually within 30 pips of entry). This is because I am hoping that a break of pins in good location would be a high momentum play. Ofcourse this also increases the amount of losers. For instance I took the USDCAD pin and have already been stopped out.

What do you think of my strategy & would you advise something different?


Many thanks,


Stef
Hey Stef

I think it really comes down to the balance you are looking for. I like to have my stop on the other side of the bar. This for me gives me the flexibility. Just cause my stop is there I rarely take full bar losses for those that know me. But the entire length of the bar gives me time to reduce my stop and make the proper decisions. This does not mean I don't cut out of my trade at b/e or for a small loss(meaning I don't always just trail out, I also set take profits and a combo). The key is where your comfort zone is. Mine has come from a lot of trial and error and data analysis on my trades to what has really genuinely worked and felt comfortable. I know I could develop a method that does similar to what you are saying but I don't think the actual real time results would fit my personality(ie a lot of b/es and small wins with the occasional runner).

Probably the best piece of advice I could give is while studying/demoing/learning etc don't jump around stick to whatever you "feel" at the moment is right for at LEAST 3-4 months(maybe more ) before re-evaluating and making any changes. By that time you will have actual hard data to start to help mold your trading. Rinse and repeat. Or I should say you rinse and grow.

Hope that helps
Mike
  • #61,308
  • Apr 20, 2010 12:05am Apr 20, 2010 12:05am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Stef

I think it really comes down to the balance you are looking for....

great post mike.

I'll say that even when you go live, that doesn't mean you cannot demo trade anymore.

I can still fulfill my experimentation on my demo account, while only taking the real good trades on my live account.

Truth is, all you need to take is 1 or 2 losing trades on your live account to realize that you are stupid to take anything less than perfect with real money. Save the "iffy" trades for demo.

"Play stupid games, win stupid prizes."

good quote.
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #61,309
  • Apr 20, 2010 12:19am Apr 20, 2010 12:19am
Thanks for the response! Looks like the market has turned around to my FTA Incidentally the SL I had coincided with the left eye of the previous pin ( I heard that this was used by some on this thread)

Oh well back to the drawing board .... Increasingly looking like my first 3 months of demo were beginner's luck!


Quoting mbqb11
Hey Stef

I think it really comes down to the balance you are looking for. I like to have my stop on the other side of the bar. This for me gives me the flexibility. Just cause my stop is there I rarely take full bar losses for those that know me. But the entire length of the bar gives me time to reduce my stop and make the proper decisions. This does not mean I don't cut out of my trade at b/e or for a small loss(meaning I don't always just trail out, I also set take profits and a combo). The key is where your comfort zone is. Mine has come from...
  • #61,310
  • Apr 20, 2010 12:19am Apr 20, 2010 12:19am
Quoting Scotty2Cues
wanted to trade the aud/usd but wasnt sure about the gap. can i take it as a pin or is it risky?

thx
Not sure of the gap you speak of on the aud/usd.

Risky PB? or better said . . is it an A+ setup? Not A+, too much traffic. But the big size at a strong PPZ level was a no brainer to me. Classic J16. Tight S/L under the 0.9220.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.gif Size: 29 KB
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #61,311
  • Apr 20, 2010 12:22am Apr 20, 2010 12:22am
Quoting jarroo
Not sure of the gap you speak of on the aud/usd.

Risky PB? or better said . . is it an A+ setup? Not A+, too much traffic. But the big size at a strong PPZ level was a no brainer to me. Classic J16. Tight S/L under the 0.9220.
on my feed the open of the pb is below the low of the previous bar. Does this affect the setup?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #61,312
  • Apr 20, 2010 12:24am Apr 20, 2010 12:24am
Quoting Scotty2Cues
on my feed the open of the pb is below the low of the previous bar
Oh I see. Yeah that was already filled, no big deal.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #61,313
  • Apr 20, 2010 12:28am Apr 20, 2010 12:28am
Quoting jarroo
Oh I see. Yeah that was already filled, no big deal.
the CLOSE of the pin mus be within the left eye?

not the ENTIRE head of the pin.....
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #61,314
  • Apr 20, 2010 12:30am Apr 20, 2010 12:30am
Quoting jarroo
Oh I see. Yeah that was already filled, no big deal.
so it doesnt matter then - it put me off as I read that the open and close of a pb has to be within the previous bar
  • #61,315
  • Apr 20, 2010 12:33am Apr 20, 2010 12:33am
Quoting Dan Gilbert
the CLOSE of the pin mus be within the left eye?

not the ENTIRE head of the pin.....
Yes . . .PB bar by proxy . . . the Lows at the 0.9220ish. An important point that I did not mention. sorry about that.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #61,316
  • Apr 20, 2010 12:33am Apr 20, 2010 12:33am
this makes me feel much light, though the analysis is impressive, I liked your analysis

Quoting bundyraider
No... Not at all. Don't stress!!

In the end you can go just on the visuals.

I personally think it's a good thing to understand, but I'm opened to the fact that you may not need to.

You could read what I said and take it all in and feel it, if you like. ...Then after that, just go about your business knowing one simple fact from it... "you don't enter a trade late."

No you don't have to.

Anyone in here who has been in here for a few years will tell you of how as they get more experience they actually...
  • #61,317
  • Apr 20, 2010 12:34am Apr 20, 2010 12:34am
Quoting Pinnocchio_S
Thanks for the response! Looks like the market has turned around to my FTA Incidentally the SL I had coincided with the left eye of the previous pin ( I heard that this was used by some on this thread)

Oh well back to the drawing board .... Increasingly looking like my first 3 months of demo were beginner's luck!
Hi.

My stop was also above the left eye but the price did not go higher yet on my feed. Are you using a buffer for your stops and allowing for the spread?
  • #61,318
  • Apr 20, 2010 12:35am Apr 20, 2010 12:35am
Quoting Scotty2Cues
so it doesnt matter then - it put me off as I read that the open and close of a pb has to be within the previous bar
Yes it matters. It was my mistake not to fully explain myself.

Abolutely , the Open/Close should be within the previous bar. I usually don't posts these.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #61,319
  • Apr 20, 2010 12:35am Apr 20, 2010 12:35am
Quoting Pinnocchio_S
Thanks for the response! Looks like the market has turned around to my FTA Incidentally the SL I had coincided with the left eye of the previous pin ( I heard that this was used by some on this thread)

Oh well back to the drawing board .... Increasingly looking like my first 3 months of demo were beginner's luck!
Hi Pin,

I too placed my SL at the left eye with some buffer but was kind of lucky because price was 3 pips away from hitting my SL. I scaled out 3 times with small profits; the final one being at 1.0111 (ask price) so was happy how things turned out but it wasn't without fear and anxiety watching the 1H go up and down before finally breaking the short end of the PB of the weekly

Better luck next time!

P/S: BTW, did you include spread in your SL? It is common for people to just look at the left eye's price and add some buffer without adding the spread which we must do if we are going short.

CY
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usca.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #61,320
  • Apr 20, 2010 12:37am Apr 20, 2010 12:37am
Quoting jarroo
Not sure of the gap you speak of on the aud/usd.

Risky PB? or better said . . is it an A+ setup? Not A+, too much traffic. But the big size at a strong PPZ level was a no brainer to me. Classic J16. Tight S/L under the 0.9220.
I skip this because the PB open and close is not within the previous bar low (left eye).
40 traders viewing now