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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #61,261
  • Apr 19, 2010 4:59pm Apr 19, 2010 4:59pm
is noosa gold coast?


Quoting bundyraider
Good place. Marketed very well. lol

The gold coast is like where every one has moved to (it seams. lol ). So, as you can imagine, it's pretty good , but aaahhhh a little over burdened (???? lol), but there are some real magic destinations off the beaten track where there are a few less tourists and all the other crap that comes from being a popular place to live.

A bit further up the Queensland coast is awesome. And even below the Gold coast is great too. If you went to the gold coast you 'd have a good time, but a little more planning into...
  • #61,262
  • Apr 19, 2010 5:06pm Apr 19, 2010 5:06pm
Nobody likes the daily EurUsd pin? Might be a nice weekly buob come friday. Good support area on the weekly and monthly uptrend.
  • #61,263
  • Apr 19, 2010 5:49pm Apr 19, 2010 5:49pm
It's simply way too small, we want size. And it trades directly into the 1.35 level.

Location is ok to me, it's at a PPZ on my chart. But it's still a pass, no doubt about it for me.

Quoting Bryan
Nobody likes the daily EurUsd pin? Might be a nice weekly buob come friday. Good support area on the weekly and monthly uptrend.
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  • #61,264
  • Apr 19, 2010 6:13pm Apr 19, 2010 6:13pm
Hi guys,

Its been a while since I posted, this thread moves so fast. As everyone mentioned before, there is a nice pin on USD/CAD Daily.

To add to the confluences that were mentioned before, there is also hidden (reverse) divergence on the RSI.

I like this setup, but I will probably close out fully around 1.01 or keep a small portion open at BE, depending on how price reacts. This looks like a great spot for the BUOB on weekly to retrace to and possibly continue long, although IMO the weekly has already hit the FTA.

Scott
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  • #61,265
  • Apr 19, 2010 6:25pm Apr 19, 2010 6:25pm
Also, this is something I have been wondering about..if Mike or anyone else has any input I'd like to hear it.

On many setups, even those with decent space, it seems like the first trouble area is way too close after taking certain factors into account--like the buffer, the spread, and taking action a few pips before the exact trouble spot. After adding all of these up, it seems like I am at the first trouble spot right away.

For example, the USD/CAD Daily. The low is 1.0135, with a 10-15 pip buffer, I'm at 1.0125-20. The spread on FXCM now is 4-5. I usually take action a few pips before the actual FTA, so that would be around 1.0105 for me.

After adding this all up, I have about 10-15 pips of movement before I need to take action (move stops to be/take profits etc.)

Now I don't think this is an A+ setup, but there have been A+ setups where I have been in the same situation.

I'm curious to see what other have to say about this, because I hate moving my stop up at the FTA and having it reverse and still taking some kind of loss on the setup when I identified the FTA almost to the pip.

Thanks guys, and I hope that made sense lol..

Scott
  • #61,266
  • Apr 19, 2010 6:28pm Apr 19, 2010 6:28pm
Quoting scott087
Also, this is something I have been wondering about..if Mike or anyone else has any input I'd like to hear it.

On many setups, even those with decent space, it seems like the first trouble area is way too close after taking certain factors into account--like the buffer, the spread, and taking action a few pips before the exact trouble spot....
Hey Scott

These are my views and why you see me being so picky. Because the better a setup firstly the more room to the first trouble areas, and even more important the less likely that real first "high" or low is going to panic me out and get to b/e(now that doesn't mean some want still get to b/e). But the less stellar these setups the more these issues come to the forefront and you must decide as a trader if it is still worth taking. Usd/CAD is a great example of this. Now this doesn't mean at the first trouble are you must go right to b/e, you can still eliminate most your risk and see if it can "break", but is it worth it? Only you can answer that one But there is a reason I am picky, makes life easier for me

Best
Mike
  • #61,267
  • Apr 19, 2010 6:38pm Apr 19, 2010 6:38pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Scott

These are my views and why you see me being so picky....
Mike,

That is right along the lines of what I have been thinking. My main concern and what I have been fighting with is making the call if its worth it to see if it can break that first spot.

The problem I have is that I can usually tell right where price is going to go, and I feel like with that knowledge I shouldn't have to take any kind of loss, but if I go right to breakeven there is no room to breathe and I usually get taken out. Sometimes you have to pay to play and keep some risk open in order to find out if the setup will break through or not.

Thanks for your insight, if anyone else has anything to add please do.

Scott
  • #61,268
  • Edited 7:27pm Apr 19, 2010 7:11pm | Edited 7:27pm
Quoting scott087
Mike,

That is right along the lines of what I have been thinking. My main concern and what I have been fighting with is making the call if its worth it to see if it can break that first spot.

The problem I have is that I can usually tell right where price is going to go, and I feel like with that knowledge I shouldn't have to take any kind of loss, but if I go right to breakeven there is no room to breathe and I usually get taken out. Sometimes you have to pay to play and keep some risk open in order to find out if the setup will break through...
To add?

...Yep, the good ones, when they come along, make you think to yourself: "God DAMN!!! Why don't I just wait for these ones every time?! They're are so EASY to trade!"

They really stick out, because straight away you can see the size of the bar is significant , the location couldn't be better and there is a very comfortable distance to that first trouble spot you mention that let's you manage it real easy. You don't even feel any hesitation.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #61,269
  • Apr 19, 2010 7:17pm Apr 19, 2010 7:17pm
Quoting Pinnocchio_S
is noosa gold coast?
Beautiful area of Australia, awesome beaches and weather.
Higher up the coast by a couple hundred Km.

This is what I'm talking about. Goldcoast is like the entry point for tourists, but all these less spoilt areas are within reach.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #61,270
  • Apr 19, 2010 7:22pm Apr 19, 2010 7:22pm
Hi Scott

I've been considering this Pin for a couple of hours and have come to the same conclusion about the FTA, buffer and spread leaving very little room. Having said that we wouldn't be at the level we're at now without the news about the Goldman Sachs scandal on Friday which in turn produced that weekly BUOB that has been mentioned as a contra indication for this trade. I suppose I'm saying it looks overbought to me.

Looking at my feed there was a BEOB on the 4H at mid-day here (UK) which is a good reinforcer for me. But .....

My first wife had a saying:

"Indecision means NO" so I'll probably pass on this and then watch it drop like a stone back to the 10000 level!!!

Good luck!


Quoting scott087
Mike,

That is right along the lines of what I have been thinking. My main concern and what I have been fighting with is making the call if its worth it to see if it can break that first spot.

The problem I have is that I can usually tell right where price is going to go, and I feel like with that knowledge I shouldn't have to take any kind of loss, but if I go right to breakeven there is no room to breathe and I usually get taken out. Sometimes you have to pay to play and keep some risk open in order to find out if the setup will break through...
  • #61,271
  • Apr 19, 2010 7:26pm Apr 19, 2010 7:26pm
Quoting Scotty2Cues
lookin at that too. Also thinkin (hoping) there might be a PB forming on the daily. Also head and shoulders on the 4hr. Im not ready to trade 4hr but hopin for the daily.

But selling IF a daily PB forms is heading into quick support?
This is just the type of situation that Mike and Scott087 were talking about. ...You can see the indications that this is a valid signal, but the zone below it just makes it harder to pull the trigger.

It's these ones that can drive you mad when, in hindsight, they are the beginning of a long run. lol

The reason I drew the orange trend line was to show how the bar needed to be a little bigger to make it an automatic entry. Being tired, I still knew it could be better, and left it.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #61,272
  • Apr 19, 2010 7:43pm Apr 19, 2010 7:43pm
Quoting bundyraider
The gold coast is like where every one has moved to (it seams. lol ). So, as you can imagine, it's pretty good , but aaahhhh a little over burdened (???? lol), but there are some real magic destinations off the beaten track where there are a few less tourists and all the other crap that comes from being a popular place to live.
The Gold Coast is entirely comprised of old people in white shoes and drunk 17yo kids

The islands, on the other hand, are beautiful - just avoid the ones packed with tourists and they are an awesome time. I loved Hayman and Lord Howe. Too many backpackers and bogans on Hamilton and Fraser when I went, not sure if it was just because of the time of year though (November).


Quoting Mauzzz
Doesn't the fact itself that such a small percentage of people make it in this bussiness make you "extraordinary" when you're among that small percentage? There's got to be something extraordinary in those who make it which sets them apart from the majority of people who fail.
Not really. The 'small percentage' isnt as small as people like to claim. I can think of a couple of reasons that people might want to exagerate the failure:success ratio, but that's another topic.

But even if it really was only 5% of people make it... that says more about the player pool than the talent at the top. Take a stroll through the wilderness of FF, and a couple of things stand out - basically, from what i can tell, forex trading attracts get-rich-quick desperados, work-from-homers who have moved on from other scammy 'jobs' (like investing in HYIPs, PLR/reseller junk, 417 schemes) and people with a hundred dollars (which may or may not be alot of money in their country) who think they can turn it into millions...both of whom, in turn, attract a group we all love - scammers.

Probably has to do with the high leverage, low barriers to entry and non-regulated nature of it.

So, being adequately capitalised, understanding basic risk management, aiming for a realistic return and having some modicum of self control (which comes from not being desperate/reliant on your bankroll) when things go against you automatically puts you above at least half the people on FF. And people here are the ones (mainly) interested in learning, and so are probably skewed towards the top end of the curve anyways.... so think of all the people who you dont see here. Nothing extrodinary about that.

Anytime I start thinking I am somehow extraordinary, I just remember that Japanese housewives made a killing running carry trades over the last decade or so....
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #61,273
  • Apr 19, 2010 7:50pm Apr 19, 2010 7:50pm
Quoting joelcf

Anytime I start thinking I am somehow extraordinary, I just remember that Japanese housewives made a killing running carry trades over the last decade or so....
yeah but then we all know what happened to them in a very short time
  • #61,274
  • Edited 8:31pm Apr 19, 2010 8:06pm | Edited 8:31pm
All good comments about today's setups. All I can say is these setups are what I look for . . .these are "high quality setups". But that's just me.

(Gbp/Usd 8 Hour PB close with 2/3 profit)
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #61,275
  • Apr 19, 2010 8:12pm Apr 19, 2010 8:12pm
Quoting jarroo
All good comments about today's setups. All I can say is these setups are what I look for . . .these are "high quality setups". But that's just me.

(Gbp/Usd 8 Hour PB close with 2/3 profit)
thanks for the signals!

lol j/k.... me personally, the only one I'm taking on the live account is UCAD....
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #61,276
  • Edited 9:20pm Apr 19, 2010 8:12pm | Edited 9:20pm
Quoting scott087
On many setups, even those with decent space, it seems like the first trouble area is way too close after taking certain factors into account--like the buffer, the spread, and taking action a few pips before the exact trouble spot. After adding all of these up, it seems like I am at the first trouble spot right away.
...
After adding this all up, I have about 10-15 pips of movement before I need to take action (move stops to be/take profits etc.)
...
I'm curious to see what other have to say about this, because I hate moving my stop up at the...
It's definitely true, especially of late (hooray for choppy, ranging markets!). So you often end up with a situation as you said, which usually gives you a terrible risk to reward ratio and so kills your EV on the trade.

I guess there are two ways of looking at it.

You could just get your stop to BE and try and get a freeroll at a longer trade. Most of the time, your trade will go to FTA and then stop you out. Sometimes, you might make a loss. Sometimes, you might get a small movement which stalls so you close out for a 0.5R profit. Rarely, you might get a 5R runner. Your EV might look something like

EV = (50% * 0R) + (10% * 0.5R) + (10% * 5R) - (30% * 1R)
= 0.25R

(ive expressed everything in terms of your risk, R, because its easier to work with. But if that just makes it confusing for anyone, change 'R' to 'pips' and multiply by ten/fifty/whatever)

Obviously, this has the advantage that you *might* get in on a runner - the long tail of your EV, so to speak, is where you make your money. But your losses will kill you. It also doesnt consider the *very* rare time where you hit a 3500 pip runner, AUDUSD style, but those outside chances really boost the returns significantly.

Alternately, you could just close at FTA. using 0.5R from the previous,

EV = (70% * 0.5R) - (30% * 1R)
= 0.05R

....

obviously, there are a world of variations in there, and the percentages you work with are never going to be entirely accurate (no matter how much historical data you look at). The best approach might be one of tailoring your trades to the type of movement you expect - if there is multiple levels of strong resistance, maybe you just take your quick profit. But if you are looking at something which looks like it has just broken through a strong level, and the only resistence is weak, maybe you allow it more space.

Or you could get pickier, mike style, and only take trades where you think the potential reward (ie, distance to FTA) is worth your time, effort and risk capital. That way, you boost *all* areas of your expected return - your chance of it reversing is lower, there is more profit available at your FTA if you decide to take it, and trading a stronger setup means that you are going to increase your probability of knocking it out of the ballpark. Obviously, the downside is that you dont get as many trades, but to be honest, that gives more time to watch TV, play poker, finish Final Fantasy and teach your dog to fetch things.

In the end, though, you gotta do what suits you. If constantly getting stopped at BE frustrates you and makes you start steaming, maybe a quick in, quick out system is more profitable for you. And the converse.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #61,277
  • Apr 19, 2010 8:22pm Apr 19, 2010 8:22pm
Quoting mbqb11
yeah but then we all know what happened to them in a very short time
Attached Image


lol, always trade with a stop?
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #61,278
  • Apr 19, 2010 8:22pm Apr 19, 2010 8:22pm
Quoting fxprocessor
Decided to close at FTA as market gave me a quick profit. Good chance gap will close though.

May re-enter on a retrace.
Nice fxp.

Those Lows on the left convinced me. I agree, the gap could close.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #61,279
  • Apr 19, 2010 8:25pm Apr 19, 2010 8:25pm
thanks,bundyraider,
of course, this will take me a whole lot of time to digest
is below usually your thinking process when analyzing and executing your orders? maybe, this is the reason why successful traders say trading is simple but not easy. I meant, there is much more than what I can think of, by reading your below explanation, I think I don't have the mind to visualize the scenarios alike based on my current level of understanding market movement. maybe another dimension of analysis to add.

Quoting bundyraider
Yes! ...Well almost!.. lol

Even if it retraces it can still have momentum. It may just be taking a breather.

When a bar closes very close to the direction it's heading it's a very good thing. BUT, it's a snapshot of the market at that moment in time. The next bar or two can still be a run on of that momentum, no problems. So it's a valid set-up to play still for that short time. The momentum can continue on. Sometimes for many bars until we reach a major group of orders in the other direction. Of course.

Much later on though it's a different...
  • #61,280
  • Apr 19, 2010 8:25pm Apr 19, 2010 8:25pm
Quoting joelcf
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lol, always trade with a stop?
haha crazy times, gotta love that man!
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