Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

I meant the candle on 13th April forming the latest high. For the present, I am waiting for the next suitable PA.

Sorry Rajesh, I didnt noticed the red arrow.

Strat, have you ever seen a gap opened on a week-end and closed or covered by a gap on the following week-end?

Roy

Not that I can remember in forex but I do remember gaps on futures and commodities where the gap lasted for several weeks.

Have you got a premonition you would like to share with us, boyo?

Hi All,

It is really truth PASR trading has to come with patience. With Strat's a few posts back and seeing PASR of a few pairs today, I am a beliver.

LOL, just my twisted sense of logic workin' overtime. It seems like the Euro likes to clean house before the week finishes, the last time it did that was 16th-20th Feb 2009, when it gaped down about 85 on the Monday open, and closed it in spectacular fashion late friday 16.00 GMT 4 Hr bar that moved in a 285 pip range. The difference between that move and this is,back then, the Swissy did it's housework on Monday, as of this week-end it still needs to close that gap. What better time to do it when nobody is watching.

Quiet in here, is everybody counting their money?

Roy

Anyone looking at Cable.

Daily just printed a BEEB engulfing the 4 previous bars.

Tried to break 55 BRN and failed.

Until the up TL is broken by a close to the downside, Momentum is still up and there is support at 1.5336.

We need to "SEE" what PRICE does at these levels before getting our wellies wet.

Sure do, but it's tantalisingly close.

Yeah yea i know you are, well so is everyone here...

My beginner's analysis for EURCAD:

First of all, you can ignore the data from before the green vertical line. At least on this broker's data the volumes are so small I will assume they are irrelevent.

Starting with the big boss:

While forming a major bottom in the market, the October 2007 monthly candle closed at 1.3660 and there was a strong rally for the next five months of over 2600 pips. There were only two retracements during that time period before price began to stall around the 1.6200 level. The big boss presently appears to be putting in a hammer at that same major price level (1.3350-1.3750) indicating the beginnings of a possible retracement up. Now we may be seeing an end to the recent steep drop in price over the last six months. Of course we are only at the middle of the month and anything can change in the next two weeks, but it does show signs of a reversal at the moment.

Boss:

Last week's candle was an indecisive doji and although the market is certainly not showing great demand at this point, price has managed to put in a higher close for the week and confirmed the previous week's hammer at support. The weekly candle has also closed higher than the monthly close S/R line, indicating some strength to the retracement.

Worker:

Price gapped up on the open Monday this past week after forming a strong BUOB off of daily support on the previous Friday. Each day last week price gradually drifted lower as bears managed to slightly overcome the bulls, and filled the weekend gap by Thursday. It seemed that all during the week there was uncertainty as to what direction the market should take as evidenced by rejection off the 20 ma on Monday, the mid-week dojis, and the test of the bottom of the gap on Thursday. During the US session Friday bulls came on strong and the candle closed as a BUEB, which again tested the Weekly S/R line and closed slightly above the 20 ma and the monthly S/R. It also had a higher low and high than the day before. Overall, the market traded in a relatively narrow range all week with some indication of buyers entering on Friday. Possibly weak longs hoping for another weekend gap? We will see.

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I think it is too early to begin considering long positions, but the market is at a major SR level here and the train may be on the turntable to start changing directions. Considering the strength of the downtrend it is more likely to be entering a period of consolidation, or possibly a retracement before continuing the downtrend to at least test the low near 1.3350-1.3400

If the bears come back in to resume the downtrend there may be trapped bulls to add to the selling pressure below 1.3515.

Considering the extreme volatility of this pair at times, I would want to be as sure as possible about the trend and S/R levels before taking a position.

I am looking at the Daily and Weekly charts and the PA is showing familiar territory for a downtrend continuation. They are respecting the channel but here is my hitch mainly because I am not used to looking at the monthly. Last months candle is not engulfing and that I get. It would be considered piercing but looking at the trend I am wondering if what I am looking at will possibly be an inside bar in the sideways trek through the channel. Any input to make sure I am understanding Strat's philosophy would be great.

Devoted student of the path,

Steve

Starting with the big boss:

While forming a major bottom in the market, the October 2007 monthly candle closed at 1.3660 and there was a strong rally for the next five months of over 2600 pips. There were only two retracements during that time period before price began to stall around the 1.6200 level. The big boss presently appears to be putting in a hammer at that same major price level (1.3350-1.3750) indicating the beginnings of a possible retracement up. Now we may be seeing an end to the recent steep drop in price over the last six months. Of course we are only at the middle of the month and anything can change in the next two weeks, but it does show signs of a reversal at the moment.

A+

Boss:

Last week's candle was an indecisive doji and although the market is certainly not showing great demand at this point, price has managed to put in a higher close for the week and confirmed the previous week's hammer at support. The weekly candle has also closed higher than the monthly close S/R line, indicating some strength to the retracement.

Worker:

Price gapped up on the open Monday this past week after forming a strong BUOB off of daily support on the previous Friday. Each day last week price gradually drifted lower as bears managed to slightly overcome the bulls, and filled the weekend gap by Thursday. It seemed that all during the week there was uncertainty as to what direction the market should take as evidenced by rejection off the 20 ma on Monday, the mid-week dojis, and the test of the bottom of the gap on Thursday. During the US session Friday bulls came on strong and the candle closed as a BUEB, which again tested the Weekly S/R line and closed slightly above the 20 ma and the monthly S/R. It also had a higher low and high than the day before. Overall, the market traded in a relatively narrow range all week with some indication of buyers entering on Friday. Possibly weak longs hoping for another weekend gap? We will see.

A

The difficulty in closing the gap is a bullish sign in itself. The fact that it has now closed it while STILL remaining at support is another bullish sign.


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I think it is too early to begin considering long positions, but the market is at a major SR level here and the train may be on the turntable to start changing directions. Considering the strength of the downtrend it is more likely to be entering a period of consolidation, or possibly a retracement before continuing the downtrend to at least test the low near 1.3350-1.3400

A+

If the bears come back in to resume the downtrend there may be trapped bulls to add to the selling pressure below 1.3515.

A+

Considering the extreme volatility of this pair at times, I would want to be as sure as possible about the trend and S/R levels before taking a position.

This is a major improvement from when you first joined us Dave. You are recognizing Market sentiment and movement but more important you are PATIENT and excercising DISCIPLINE.

As I mentioned in previous posts on other pairs, we don’t need to gamble on turning points. Let the market REVEAL its intentions – let it make a HH followed by a HL then we will have added confidence when taking the next PASR trade.

The amount of pips we miss out during this stage is peanuts compared to the “meat” of the trend we normally get and, more important, keeps us stress free and our account intact.

A bit disappointed that you missed out the Boss in your analysis – I’m sure she will come back to haunt you if you continue to avoid her.

because I am not used to looking at the monthly.

Therein lies your problem. I suggest you study and UNDERSTAND ALL my posts on time frames.

Last months candle is not engulfing and that I get. It would be considered piercing but looking at the trend I am wondering if what I am looking at will possibly be an inside bar in the sideways trek through the channel.

We are not looking to trade the Big Boss ONLY get direction and sentiment from it. If you can’t see what the Big Boss is telling you then you know where to go.

I am wondering if what I am looking at will possibly be an inside bar in the sideways trek through the channel.

We only trade what we “SEE”. You are trying to trade the future.

Will focus on the the weekly close and Pa on the worker in relation to SR. Man there is much to learn here. Thank you for your reply my friend. I have some very bad old habits. Gotta break them. Back to the books.

Steve

Good evening! Last week I presented my plan for G/U.This evening my SL was hit.The price turned back looking for 20+50 as a new S.The loss was 1%.This is the market and the show must go on!Thanks.

Good attitude Igmal, well done.
There was nothing wrong with your analysis last week, sometimes trades just don't work.

Cable and sterling are the most correlated with the financial sector. If the Goldman Sachs trouble continues into next week it might overide the Greece troubles and send EURGBP higher too.

Strat,

Thanks for your comments on my analysis of the EURCAD pair.

Speaking of the Boss time frame this is what I am seeing:

Week beginning April 04: Market was in a steep decline with the bears firmly in control until price fell to the 1.3350 level where considerable demand was encountered. Bulls were able to push price back up to close the week near the weekly S/R level of 1.3550 to finish out the week with a hammer-like candle. A good early indication of a market bottom beginning to form.

Week beginning April 11: The week showed continued bull strength as demand continued to push price higher and confirm the previous week's low. The candle was a doji which showed the supply and demand was more or less equal overall for the week, but was significant in that the bears were unable to regain control and continue to push prices lower. It also had a higher high and low than the previous week. I think it is important to note that the market put in a higher close than the week before, plus it was above major S/R which may indicate higher prices in the short term as bears weaken and bulls gain more strength.

As I mentioned before, it is too early to definitely say the market has bottomed and is starting to make a move higher but is worth watching for price action to show the way.

Dave

May I float a contrarian view of this pair?

I have been looking for shorts for some time now but am starting to have second thoughts because I see what appears to be a double bottom at 13270ish. The daily has made a HH and as of now is at the 68 fib retracement.

Consider if it stops more or less there making a HL and during the week starts working on the 13800 target for another HH then I would start looking for PA there to go long after say another retracement or test of 13800 that gives me a decent entry with PASR. my target would then be 14500 with plenty of up and down between to add or take profit and reenter again.

Will be fun to watch what actually happens, I will of course let PRICE dictate my trading regardless of these imaginings.

Larry

I totally agree with you Larry,about long expectations.More than this,the TL what acted as R,now seems to become a S and the price also seems to form a head&shoulders formation.Thanks.