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Ichimoku forever

  • #12,681
  • Apr 17, 2010 2:16am Apr 17, 2010 2:16am
Hi All,

Have to say first off.

Long time reader, first time poster


Up until now I have watched and read the post of many talented people in this forum who have provided the community very valuable information.

However I have one question that I could not find any information on and was wondering if someone could shed some light for me.

I understand the crosses, the rules etc, however I am finding that when I have the opportunity to look at the charts, that most of the time I have missed the optimum entry for a trade. . So the question is, how do people determine that the trade is still good for entry or that it has run out of momemtum and about to turn back.

I have tried on a demo account that rules of the cross etc, but it seems that by the time I get to look at the chart I have missed most of the price movement and get stopped out.

Cheers to you all.
  • #12,682
  • Apr 17, 2010 3:10am Apr 17, 2010 3:10am
Quoting ichi360
Following Adipati, I would like to hand-over my Good Bye post too. It has been such a nice learning journey here with you guys that I cant even explain in simple words.

Vic, Adipati, Hafiz, Egy Bro, FXAddict, Osman and all others ... you guys simply rock.

Those who wish, know how to remain in touch with me

Good luck everyone and trade smart.
Cheers,
Asher
Ouw, I'm very sad to hear that. You two have helped us so much. Hope you both will come back some day, and give us your tips & lesson about Ichi.

Thanks.
- pedma -
Good friends are more valuable than gold ...
  • #12,683
  • Apr 17, 2010 5:57pm Apr 17, 2010 5:57pm
man. it's getting really quiet in here. no rocking videos like they used to post on weekends. sigh.
  • #12,684
  • Apr 17, 2010 8:34pm Apr 17, 2010 8:34pm
Quoting mickd1
Hi All,

Have to say first off.

Long time reader, first time poster


Up until now I have watched and read the post of many talented people in this forum who have provided the community very valuable information.

However I have one question that I could not find any information on and was wondering if someone could shed some light for me.

I understand the crosses, the rules etc, however I am finding that when I have the opportunity to look at the charts, that most of the time I have missed the optimum entry for a trade. . So the question...
"Time" is of the esscence. Be patient and use multiple time frames and trend lines to anticipate the next possible good entry moment.
  • #12,685
  • Apr 18, 2010 7:01pm Apr 18, 2010 7:01pm
Quoting watchtower4x
"Time" is of the esscence. Be patient and use multiple time frames and trend lines to anticipate the next possible good entry moment.
Mickd1,

As watchtower4x correctly notes, patience and using multiple TFs is the key to entry.

My first suggestion would be to start looking for entries on nothing less than the 1hr chart.

If you always seem to miss entry signals then it is likely you are watching a very low TF that moves much faster or alternatively using an TF but not checking the charts enough

Stick to the higher TFs mate, it makes learning easier and trading much less stressful and arguably more profitable!
  • #12,686
  • Apr 18, 2010 7:15pm Apr 18, 2010 7:15pm
Quoting fxripper
man. it's getting really quiet in here. no rocking videos like they used to post on weekends. sigh.
Sorry for the lack of tunes mate.

I think everyone was burned out last week after a mind numbing series of sideways days followed by the Goldman Sachs bombshell being dropped last thing on Friday.

Hope everyone got out of their europe positions before the weekend as I mentioned late last week.

Some of the gaps this morning were real SL jumpers!

Anyway, here's an old one but a good one to start your week. This guys cracks me up every time I see this vid.

4x.

Inserted Video
  • #12,687
  • Apr 19, 2010 12:59am Apr 19, 2010 12:59am
good monring gents

wishing all thousands of green pips for the week
  • #12,688
  • Apr 19, 2010 3:07am Apr 19, 2010 3:07am
Quoting 4xAddict
Sorry for the lack of tunes mate.

I think everyone was burned out last week after a mind numbing series of sideways days followed by the Goldman Sachs bombshell being dropped last thing on Friday.

Hope everyone got out of their europe positions before the weekend as I mentioned late last week.

Some of the gaps this morning were real SL jumpers!

Anyway, here's an old one but a good one to start your week. This guys cracks me up every time I see this vid.

4x.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86AJje3ElDc
  • #12,689
  • Apr 19, 2010 3:54am Apr 19, 2010 3:54am
I'm trying to improve my ichimoku because i've been quite bad with it until now, i trained a bit in backtest but well...

I need some feedback about what i think so plz if you have some time

Screens :
M15
http://www.easy-upload.net/vignettes...=2010419105325
M30
http://www.easy-upload.net/vignettes.php?v=201041910536
H1
http://www.easy-upload.net/vignettes...=2010419105221
H4
http://www.easy-upload.net/vignettes...=2010419105252


My guess is that i should wait a bit before entering (waiting M15 CS to cross down, this is right now cos i took some time for the screens), then take some pips down and then wait as the H4 situation is uncertain. Is my analysis correct plz?
  • #12,690
  • Apr 19, 2010 4:38am Apr 19, 2010 4:38am
Quoting DhaoS
I'm trying to improve my ichimoku because i've been quite bad with it until now, i trained a bit in backtest but well...

I need some feedback about what i think so plz if you have some time

Screens :
M15
http://www.easy-upload.net/vignettes...=2010419105325
M30
http://www.easy-upload.net/vignettes.php?v=201041910536
H1
http://www.easy-upload.net/vignettes...=2010419105221
H4
http://www.easy-upload.net/vignettes...=2010419105252


My...
Hi Dhaos,

No matter if you are short term scalping or longer TF trading with ichi, it is really important that you have support from higher TFs. If you are trading 15min then ideally you should always have the 30min and 1hr charts going the same way at the minimum. If you are trading 5 min then at least 15min and 30min (but ideally 1hr too) should be supporting trade direction.

What you say about the 4hr being uncertain is a concern though as you can see from this TF that the market is not sure what to do so really you shouldn't be looking to enter trades at this point.

The benefit of trading the longer TFs is that you don't have to sit in front of the screen all day and to satisfy your need to trade regularly just trade as many different pairs/crosses or other instruments that you can. Ichi works quite well on commodities, US stocks (I only say US as I do not use it on other countries stocks), futures, indicies etc.

Maybe try this and you will find it less stressful and much more profitable.

There is a school of thought in trading that believes in order to have the most accurate results from your trading method, you need to take every single signal that it offers - this is the only true way to know how well it works as the market doesn't work to ensure your system only works bst when you are in front of a computer screen.

i.e you may live in a timezone where trading can be a little unsettled for a decent part of your trading day due to the closes and opens of major markets etc.

I tend to subscribe to this thought process and this is the primary reason that I do not trade short term TFs. This is because I would need to be in front of the screen 24/7 during market opening hours in order to trade every single signal which is physically impossible. For this reason I will never know how accurate any short term trading system is because it could give all of its good signals while I am asleep and all of its fake outs while I am watching the market.

Now that is a theoretical and not very likely scenario however I use it to illustrate my point.

If you only trade higher TFs then it is possible to trade EVERY signal that your system (ichi) offers. Only then will you truly know how successful the system is.

Just some food for thought for any people thinking of becoming scalpers this week

Green pips.

4x.
  • #12,691
  • Apr 19, 2010 4:52am Apr 19, 2010 4:52am
Thanks a lot for your advices 4xAddict
  • #12,692
  • Apr 19, 2010 11:51am Apr 19, 2010 11:51am
Quoting 4xAddict
Hi Dhaos,

.........

4x.
Hey 4xAddict,
great response regarding time avaliable to trade. This is why i love Ichi because i work most of the day and rely on 4H/Daily for my signals as well.

I am still working on getting a proper trading strategy going but im in no rush so i got time to learn.
I was wondering what setups you look for usually? Kumo breaks? Crosses?
  • #12,693
  • Apr 19, 2010 12:08pm Apr 19, 2010 12:08pm
@4xAddict...

I'm interested in your setups, too!
  • #12,694
  • Apr 19, 2010 2:31pm Apr 19, 2010 2:31pm
Quoting Weasy2k
Hey 4xAddict,
great response regarding time avaliable to trade. This is why i love Ichi because i work most of the day and rely on 4H/Daily for my signals as well.

I am still working on getting a proper trading strategy going but im in no rush so i got time to learn.
I was wondering what setups you look for usually? Kumo breaks? Crosses?
Hi Weasy2x/Nightyhawk,

I am happy to share my trading strategy. Like all trading strategies it is not 100% accurate or I would be making R Kelly video clips of my own life

I generally watch 4hr TF. I reference this against the daily and weekly to make sure they are trending in the same direction.

The entries that I like are kumo breaks with CS above PA. I am not convinced that CS above kumo is as important as some of the other guys in here seem to think but rather just use it as a confirmation to enter once it's above the PA.

I pay a lot of attention to flat KS's on the higher TFs (D/W) as a key S/R level along with kumo tops and bottoms.

Not a big believer in the power of the TS as an S/R level except on the longest TFs but it's a great place to provide a re-entry signal into a longer term trade when a candle closes back above or back below it.

I always use the 1hr chart to provide me with entry points in order to reduce my SL exposure and increase my effective R:R ratio. I always take half my position off the table at the first TP target and move SL to BE or to trail KS by the spread on the pair +5pips to cover tests of the KS.

I find the 4hr TF the best one to trade because it gives the best opportunity to make sizeable profits whilst being protected from market noise.

My maximum exposure in any one position is 2% of equity. The actual dollar value of each position obviously changes dependent on the pip value of the pair and the number of pips from the entry to SL. I never have more than 6% of equity in the market at one time and very rarely trade the same currency across two pairs/crosses at the same time so that I avoid inadvertently increasing my risk beyond 2%.k

If you are inclined to trade lower Tfs then my experience is that the most stable pairs such as U/J, U/CHF, E/U, E/G and E/J are possible to trade on the 1hr rather than the 4hr but it just takes more time obviously and the signals are often not as strong.

I strictly never trade any other pairs than these on the 1hr though because the likes of the G/U and G/J have such a large average daily range that they can often throw fake signals on the 1hr and it becomes particularly expensive in flat markets. I mean you are obviously free to trade all crosses you want on whatever TF however I have spent many hours studying all the majors across the 1hr and 4hr and I think the risk doesn't add up on the 1hr except for the ones listed above.

That said, I rarely trade on the 1hr TFs as I prefer to trade as many pairs as possible on the 4hr rather than limiting my options having to watch a lower TF chart on a small number of pairs more regularly.

Re-entry signals into existing trends I normally take on the 1hr charts as long as the longer TFs support this.

It's pretty much as simple as that really.

Let me know if you want to know anything else. As the market is flat and all over the place at the moment there's not really any solid signals for me to post images of to articulate what I have said above however I will going forward if you like.

I will try to post a trade that I am taking at least once per week complete with images to explain what I do if you like however, it is an offer that is market dependent obviously.

Cheers,

4x.
  • #12,695
  • Apr 19, 2010 2:59pm Apr 19, 2010 2:59pm
Quoting superman67
what timeframe for short term trade is better? 5M,15M OR 30M? thanks.
Try using several TFs at the same time......ie; 15, 5 and 1 minute.....
  • #12,696
  • Apr 19, 2010 3:36pm Apr 19, 2010 3:36pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Hi Weasy2x/Nightyhawk,

I am happy to share my trading strategy. Like all trading strategies it is not 100% accurate or I would be making R Kelly video clips of my own life

I generally watch 4hr TF. I reference this against the daily and weekly to make sure they are trending in the same direction.

The entries that I like are kumo breaks with CS above PA. I am not convinced that CS above kumo is as important as some of the other guys in here seem to think but rather just use it as a confirmation to enter once it's above the PA.

I pay a lot...
Whoa... what an explanation.... I'm deeply impressed!!!!
  • #12,697
  • Apr 19, 2010 6:47pm Apr 19, 2010 6:47pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Hi Weasy2x/Nightyhawk,

I am happy to share my trading strategy. Like all trading strategies it is not 100% accurate or I would be making R Kelly video clips of my own life

...........
Let me know if you want to know anything else. As the market is flat and all over the place at the moment there's not really any solid signals for me to post images of to articulate what I have said above however I will going forward if you like.

I will try to post a trade that I am taking at least once per week complete with images to explain what I do if you...
4x you are a god amongst mere mortals...(guess the movie reference )
That is exactly the kind of info i was looking for.
If you could post a trade that has been completed that would be great...of course at your own pace.

Thank you so much!
  • #12,698
  • Apr 19, 2010 7:57pm Apr 19, 2010 7:57pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Hi Weasy2x/Nightyhawk,

I am happy to share my trading strategy. Like all trading strategies it is not 100% accurate or I would be making R Kelly video clips of my own life

....
Sincere appreciation.

Wile E.
  • #12,699
  • Apr 19, 2010 8:27pm Apr 19, 2010 8:27pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Hi Weasy2x/Nightyhawk,
I am happy to share my trading strategy.
...
I will try to post a trade that I am taking at least once per week complete with images to explain what I do
Wow! That was a great explanation! Thanks a lot!

It would be awesome to see how exactly you choose trades. I'm also interested in H4, they look much more stable. But I obviously make mistakes.. Like with my current short Gbp/Jpy - now I see that I make one and the same stupid mistake each time - I entered it against W1, hoping that when all lower plus higher (MN) TFs are heading down, it will drag W1 down, too.
I tried that even though I read each time, that at least 2 higher TFs must go together with the trade.
Hope to learn to be more patient and wait for a better entry - before I'm totally broke.

It would be great to know your opinion about the current Eur/Aud. Would you go for it if it breaks the cloud on H4? If not, why?
The cloud is flat - how long would you wait before entering? 4, 5, 7 candles? To make sure it's a real breakout and yet not be too late for the trade?

I'm a bit frustrated now because of a few bad trades in a row - a third of my depo already lost....

Wish you and everyone lots of green pips, only wisest decisions and best of luck!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #12,700
  • Apr 20, 2010 12:49am Apr 20, 2010 12:49am
Quoting <3 Ichi <3
Wow! That was a great explanation! Thanks a lot!

It would be awesome to see how exactly you choose trades. I'm also interested in H4, they look much more stable. But I obviously make mistakes.. Like with my current short Gbp/Jpy - now I see that I make one and the same stupid mistake each time - I entered it against W1, hoping that when all lower plus higher (MN) TFs are heading down, it will drag W1 down, too.
I tried that even though I read each time, that at least 2 higher TFs must go together with the trade.
Hope to learn to be more patient...
HEY THERE.
EurAud... is a mess... i manages to pip something on friday, after the "good news". it seems is trying to make a bottom hereabout... i am trying to long it... but again i am 100 pips on minus, because the cs didn't manage to break the cloud. we'll see. as far as i remember, long on the euraud comes together with a drop in equities.
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