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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #6,461
  • Apr 16, 2010 7:42am Apr 16, 2010 7:42am
Quoting Misterdaz
I'm short this sh1t @ 1.4520. I blame BarTstop.

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You get stopped out?
  • #6,462
  • Apr 16, 2010 7:48am Apr 16, 2010 7:48am
Very volatile atm. Fridays are killers. Should have too k the 20 pips I was up and ran. It probably go to profit now to annoy me. Lets see if the 61.8 holds on my chart.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #6,463
  • Apr 16, 2010 7:58am Apr 16, 2010 7:58am
Quoting Misterdaz
Very volatile atm. Fridays are killers. Should have too k the 20 pips I was up and ran. It probably go to profit now to annoy me. Lets see if the 61.8 holds on my chart.

MD.
Makes you want to pick your nose doesn't it?
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  • #6,464
  • Apr 16, 2010 8:33am Apr 16, 2010 8:33am
Quoting bartstop
Makes you want to pick your nose doesn't it?
I think I'd like to punch one atm. If I was to analyse my EURAUD chart I suppose I didn't put my 61.8 on a swing, maybe I'm clutching at straws. I need to look back at previous 61.8 to 50 winners.

So for the AUD you'd have needed your stop at the 61.8, the last swing high, makes sense I suppose but terrible rr. That was also one of those "riskier fibs".

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #6,465
  • Apr 16, 2010 8:41am Apr 16, 2010 8:41am
I just woke up and cut on my computer and saw where the 1.382 fib ext was hit again on the 1.382 ext.
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Click to Enlarge Name: Rodneys Chart.JPG Size: 78 KB
  • #6,466
  • Apr 16, 2010 9:28am Apr 16, 2010 9:28am
Hey checkz, do you do nightshifts or is your alarm clock broke?

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #6,467
  • Apr 16, 2010 11:11am Apr 16, 2010 11:11am
Quoting Misterdaz
Hey checkz, do you do nightshifts or is your alarm clock broke?

MD.
Both!!!
  • #6,468
  • Apr 16, 2010 3:58pm Apr 16, 2010 3:58pm
Quoting ThomKnight
Chaps this is where we are going eventually... how we get there... well we track price. I don't see the reason to trade this pair. I recommend stick to EU GU GY you will find your favourite in there and dime to dollars it should be GY.

Also Djia just signalled into the twelves. if ye find yourself hunting for trades... you are making a bloody mistake. All good things come to those who wait.

TK
I think he pulled it on a weekly then switched to a monthly to hide how he pulled it.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #6,469
  • Apr 16, 2010 5:09pm Apr 16, 2010 5:09pm
Quoting Misterdaz
I think he pulled it on a weekly then switched to a monthly to hide how he pulled it.

MD.
In TK's quote he talked about tracking price and I had started trying to do it but what I was doing was in a uptrend starting at the base of the trade and following it until it retraced back to the inner fibs and if price respected the inner fibs and continued up I would enter long in the trade is this how you track price.
  • #6,470
  • Apr 16, 2010 8:05pm Apr 16, 2010 8:05pm
Just as well I stayed in this trade. I made 40+ pips profit.

Interesting to see, yet again, that price pinned itself off what was to be the 50 inner fib before reaching it's target (the 0 fib matched up with my earlier 138!)
If it makes a regular habit of doing that, it could become quite predictive.

Also note that there's another pin there on the way down.
Attached Image
  • #6,471
  • Apr 17, 2010 12:36am Apr 17, 2010 12:36am
Here's the EURAUD as I saw it MD....
(easily seen is retrospect!)

Price goes down and rests at the 50 (I've been noticing a pattern here with trending price movements clearly mapping this fib out ahead of time), and amazingly enough all the price points match up.

Also, note how there's a gap of a few pips past the 138 that throws the price pattern out of alignment... time to redraw fibs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,472
  • Apr 17, 2010 4:18pm Apr 17, 2010 4:18pm
Quoting Naynay
Here's the EURAUD as I saw it MD....
(easily seen is retrospect!)

Price goes down and rests at the 50 (I've been noticing a pattern here with trending price movements clearly mapping this fib out ahead of time), and amazingly enough all the price points match up.

Also, note how there's a gap of a few pips past the 138 that throws the price pattern out of alignment... time to redraw fibs.
Are you pulling to swings rather that 61.8 fitting like me?

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #6,473
  • Apr 17, 2010 5:57pm Apr 17, 2010 5:57pm
What I'm noticing is, that when price stops at the 38 or 61, it's likely to bounce off and continue the trend, but when it stops at the 50,... a break of the 61 means price goes to the 100
  • #6,474
  • Apr 18, 2010 7:32am Apr 18, 2010 7:32am
Quoting Skunny

I have discussed the fact that if you arbitrarily put stops on your trades based on how much YOU are ok losing, you are going in the wrong direction. Your stops need to be in a specific place. These places change constantly and each period of time or cycle has it's spot. I also made mention to the fact that stop losses are a huge reason why most traders fail. I'll say it again, if your stop is in a place where you aren't prepared to place a trade in opposite direction, you have some work to do.
In other words, your stops MUST be on the other side of the 100 line.
  • #6,475
  • Apr 18, 2010 7:45am Apr 18, 2010 7:45am
It requires absolute faith in the fib and you must get iy drawn correctly. If you risk 3% you make sure that the 100 only takes you out by that. Therefore this also means if you win you only make 1%.

If this is to be accepted then maybe averaging into a trade is better.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #6,476
  • Apr 18, 2010 7:58am Apr 18, 2010 7:58am
Quoting Misterdaz
It requires absolute faith in the fib and you must get iy drawn correctly. If you risk 3% you make sure that the 100 only takes you out by that. Therefore this also means if you win you only make 1%.

If this is to be accepted then maybe averaging to a trade is better.

MD.
I agree, but the 3% rule comes from systems that rely on probabilities. This method doesn't. It relies on your understanding of what the current cycle is. Like Thom said, if you know what you're doing and know where price is going, RR is irrelevant.

So I guess we have to DEMO until we are 99% sure we know what we are doing.
  • #6,477
  • Apr 18, 2010 8:07am Apr 18, 2010 8:07am
Quoting bartstop
I agree, but the 3% rule comes from systems that rely on probabilities. This method doesn't. It relies on your understanding of what the current cycle is. Like Thom said, if you know what you're doing and know where price is going, RR is irrelevant.

So I guess we have to DEMO until we are 99% sure we know what we are doing.
Now you know why I have the chicken legs, that kind of rr scares me but I agree with what you say.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #6,478
  • Apr 18, 2010 8:22am Apr 18, 2010 8:22am
Quoting Misterdaz
I can't find anything that takes my fancy today, markets are a bit choppy to say the least.

Anyway last night I took my daughter to see Led Zep Too, they are an excellent cover band. The music is not to my taste but they were very authentic and superb musicians. My daughter loved it and I reckon you would have too Kissfan.

MD.

My son IS 15yrs old has started a local rock band and I am very often the "roadie". LOL!! I love Led Zep as does he. I canot play any instrument but have had an interest for a while. I am getting a bass guitar in October and will be getting lessons from him. We really enjoy the whole music thing here. 20 yrs ago I stated saying that I thought that Led Zepplin was timeless and before their time. This was one of the few things I have been right about.

K.I.S.S.
  • #6,479
  • Apr 18, 2010 8:32am Apr 18, 2010 8:32am
Quoting KissFan
My son IS 15yrs old has started a local rock band and I am very often the "roadie". LOL!! I love Led Zep as does he. I canot play any instrument but have had an interest for a while. I am getting a bass guitar in October and will be getting lessons from him. We really enjoy the whole music thing here. 20 yrs ago I stated saying that I thought that Led Zepplin was timeless and before their time. This was one of the few things I have been right about.

K.I.S.S.

They may not be the caliber of Led Zeplin but I think another band that will be around for a while is the Foo Fighters. I don't know many people that don't like at least one of their songs. I know I'll be listening to them for years to come.


Bartstop
  • #6,480
  • Apr 18, 2010 12:27pm Apr 18, 2010 12:27pm
Er, you do know one person.
Keep smiling
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