james16 Chart Thread | Page 3055 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

Attachments: james16 Chart Thread
Exit Attachments

james16 Chart Thread

  • #61,081
  • Apr 17, 2010 11:09pm Apr 17, 2010 11:09pm
Hang in there. When I started, I stayed on demo for nine months. I went live and traded a measly $100. I stayed around break-even for roughly a year and a half after that. The light bulb finally went on. It is all about support and resistance (location) as others have stated. Now I often take trades purely based upon support and resistance without a PA setup. For example, I entered long on EUR/CAD on Friday based on the Daily timeframe even though there was no solid PA setup.

Scott

Quoting Mauzzz
Hey Guys,

I'm full of emotions right now and I don't know who else I can share them with that could understand me as well as you all can. Feel free to pay no attention to what I say, I just need to write it down to cool off.

So after two months of lurking around here I decided to get the forex tester and start applying some of the knowledge I've gained here. Well, as I should have expected - I failed horribly. I traded on the daily time frame, trying to follow all the rules - max 2% per trade, trying to take only the best pins, trying to...
  • #61,082
  • Apr 17, 2010 11:13pm Apr 17, 2010 11:13pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
you missed it because interbank doesn't finish drawing the weekly bar until the sunday daily bar of the NEXT week on IBFX closes.


edit: actually that wouldn't have made a difference in this case lol
It was on a lot different feeds. On FXCM, the S/L would be like 6-7 pips. lol
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdjpyipba.gif Size: 21 KB
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #61,083
  • Apr 17, 2010 11:15pm Apr 17, 2010 11:15pm
Quoting jarroo
It was on a lot different feeds. On FXCM, the S/L would be like 6-7 pips. lol
What's the RR on a 190 pip move.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #61,084
  • Apr 17, 2010 11:20pm Apr 17, 2010 11:20pm
Quoting jarroo
It was on a lot different feeds. On FXCM, the S/L would be like 6-7 pips. lol
Recalulation: SL 12-13pips
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #61,085
  • Apr 18, 2010 12:20am Apr 18, 2010 12:20am
Quoting jarroo
Recalulation: SL 12-13pips
On Fxpro, it's like 1:3 via a 50 pip stop and a 150 pip target.

g.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nj.gif Size: 17 KB
I believe . . .
  • #61,086
  • Apr 18, 2010 1:12am Apr 18, 2010 1:12am
Quoting Dan Gilbert
Here's what I have been messing with lately:
Dan,

Thanks for the time and effort. Really useful.

Glynn
"Fail to prepare, prepare to fail."
  • #61,087
  • Apr 18, 2010 1:40am Apr 18, 2010 1:40am
Thanks for the feedback Mike, SC & Shaun,

That's what I'm posting the charts up here for now

I did see the traffic to the left of E/N but thought it might still be tradeable if it broke up a bit but that range is pretty hard to ignore.

Swing highs/lows for the win!

I must admit it's awefully hard waiting for really good daily set ups, but I think this is probably one of the most crucial lessons to be learnt. It amazes me how I can read and be told something so many times but still have to make the same mistake many times over for it to actually sink in. Somehow I don't think I'm alone in that method of learning..

I must keep repeating to myself:

Having no open position is a position in itself
Protection of capital is more important than anything else
Every time I trade I am risking my capital
I am trading to grow my capital not make trades

Patience patience patience..
Anything can happen.
  • #61,088
  • Apr 18, 2010 2:44am Apr 18, 2010 2:44am
I have read about pinbar at swing high/low, but I have found out that the consideration of swing high/low position has no predictive power, because the fact that swing high/low is a swing high/low can only be known in hindsight.

Let me explain the point with the following figures. In Figure 0, we see a pinbar, but is it a swing high/low, it cannot be told yet. Price after the pinbar can go up and can down. If it goes up, you can then see it is a swing low (Figure 1), and the fortune teller now tell you their prediction works out. If the price go down, the pinbar is not at a swing low (Figure 2), and the fortune teller can now tell you they are not wrong.

The hindsight phenomenon couples with the fact that swing high/low pinbar (Figure 1) is more eye-catching than a pinbar at other locations (such as Figure 2). The illustration that swing high/low is a useful consideration is so easy to appear real. It is like a fortune teller speaks louder for correct prediction and plays down their wrong prediction.

So, be aware the emptiness of this swing high/low consideration.

Hope people find it useful.
Attached Images
  • #61,089
  • Apr 18, 2010 2:50am Apr 18, 2010 2:50am
Quoting kk007
I have read about pinbar at swing high/low, but I have found out that the consideration of swing high/low position has no predictive power, because the fact that swing high/low is a swing high/low can only be known in hindsight.

Let me explain the point with the following figures. In Figure 0, we see a pinbar, but is it a swing high/low, it cannot be told yet. Price after the pinbar can go up and can down. If it goes up, you can then see it is a swing low (Figure 1), and the fortune teller now tell you their prediction works out. If the price...
Hey KK

This is not the entire story though. Bars at swing points are only part of what makes them useful there. Understanding the type of potential swing point can go very far into understanding the potential of the bar(coupled with its size and location). A huge pinbar at a swing high or low that is a major potential swing point has the make up of less touble areas and thus a possible to be a runner. Where as a bar at a more minor swing point is by nature going to have more trouble areas(see my recent video I posted in this thread on understanding traffic). Just picking a swing point and any old pinbar is why most will fail. You have to take it the next step an understanding what locations and what a bar is likely to do to build a game plan that over time will produce profits. So while I understand your point it is only part of the story.

Hope that helps
Mike
  • #61,090
  • Apr 18, 2010 3:07am Apr 18, 2010 3:07am
Hi Mike,

Thanks for responding.

A number of factors are into consideration, pinbar length, the troubleness of the position, traffic, trendline, etc when evaluating position. I haven't found any problem with these factors. Here, I have singled out swing high/low to critise.

I want to argue that the factor of swing high/low is unnecessary. Unlike the other factors listed above, swing high/low cannot be known at real time (you know it afterwards). What is the usefulness of something who can only speak in hindsight?

Of course if you take a number of factors into consideration and include swing high/low, the uselessness of the swing high/low consideration may not be that obvious, because of the present of the other factors considered.

cheers,

kk



Quoting mbqb11
Hey KK

This is not the entire story though. Bars at swing points are only part of what makes them useful there. Understanding the type of potential swing point can go very far into understanding the potential of the bar(coupled with its size and location). A huge pinbar at a swing high or low that is a major potential swing point has the make up of less touble areas and thus a possible to be a runner. Where as a bar at a more minor swing point is by nature going to have more trouble areas(see my recent video I posted in this thread on understanding...
  • #61,091
  • Edited 4:00am Apr 18, 2010 3:47am | Edited 4:00am
Quoting kk007
....swing high/low cannot be known at real time (you know it afterwards).What is the usefulness of something who can only speak in hindsight?...
well, trading is about probabilities.
we try to trade when we believe/know that odds are in our favor.
we cannot be certain that each trade we take will be a winner.

in that light, we can say that everything (good/bad trade; swing hi/low or not, etc) is known/discernible in hindsight.
if u single out 'swing high/low', & if u do the same to the other factors u've mentioned(see below), then IMHO it's (possibly) susceptible too to the hindsight &/or usefulness 'issue.'
like the other factors, 'swing hi/low' is just a piece of the puzzle (but necessary, IMHO). it works in synergy with the other factors (confluence).
Hope this makes sense


Quote
..A number of factors are into consideration, pinbar length, the troubleness of the position, traffic, trendline, etc when evaluating position...
  • #61,092
  • Apr 18, 2010 3:59am Apr 18, 2010 3:59am
Quoting jarroo
Recalulation: SL 12-13pips
doesnt change much

Quoting jarroo
What's the RR on a 190 pip move.
  • #61,093
  • Apr 18, 2010 4:03am Apr 18, 2010 4:03am
Quoting kk007
I have read about pinbar at swing high/low...
figure 1 & 2 are similar.
both are at a swing low but in Figure 2, the PB did not work since the trend is obviously strong.
BUT we are not surprised (that this PB fails) since we can see an immediate PPZ above the PB.
  • #61,094
  • Apr 18, 2010 4:06am Apr 18, 2010 4:06am
Quoting cprao
Thank you for your comments.

From the above checklist....


u can add the close should be/ideally above the open (for a bullish PB)
  • #61,095
  • Apr 18, 2010 4:24am Apr 18, 2010 4:24am
Would like to see some PA around the 9,000 BRN and PPZ. Let's see if the low of the last green bar (8,994) gets broken.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD JPY 160410 W.JPG Size: 136 KB
  • #61,096
  • Edited 4:52am Apr 18, 2010 4:29am | Edited 4:52am
I haven't said anything is certain a winner.

Quoting supremeChaos
well, trading is about probabilities.
we try to trade when we believe/know that odds are in our favor.
we cannot be certain that each trade we take will be a winner.
A S/R is known at real time. I mean when the price hit a S/R, you know it is hitting. Whether the S/R can block the price movement, it is another issue.

If everything is known only in hindsight, an edge does not exist, and there is no need to learn to predict price movement.

Hope this make sense.

Quoting supremeChaos
in that light, we can say that everything (good/bad trade; swing hi/low or not, etc) is known/discernible in hindsight.
if u single out 'swing high/low', & if u do the same to the other factors u've mentioned(see below), then IMHO it's (possibly) susceptible too to the hindsight &/or usefulness 'issue.'
like the other factors, 'swing hi/low' is just a piece of the puzzle (but necessary, IMHO). it works in synergy with the other factors (confluence).
Hope this makes sense
  • #61,097
  • Apr 18, 2010 4:29am Apr 18, 2010 4:29am
Both Figure 1 and Figure 2 comes from Figure 0.

Quoting supremeChaos
figure 1 & 2 are similar.
both are at a swing low but in Figure 2, the PB did not work since the trend is obviously strong.
BUT we are not surprised (that this PB fails) since we can see an immediate PPZ above the PB.
  • #61,098
  • Edited 4:47am Apr 18, 2010 4:44am | Edited 4:47am
A Sunday diversion.

I have started re-reading the thread from the start (page 60 so far). Can anyone enlighten us as to where those original posters are - Habeeb, Eastmaels, Accrete, Sceptre amongst lots of others?

Are these traders still active in the PF? Did they succeed? Where are they now?

Just curious.

J67
  • #61,099
  • Apr 18, 2010 4:47am Apr 18, 2010 4:47am
Quoting Jonners67
Where are they now?

Just curious.

J67
counting money.!!!!
  • #61,100
  • Apr 18, 2010 4:55am Apr 18, 2010 4:55am
Quoting trade price
counting money.!!!!
Ha Ha Ha - very funny!!

I sincerely hope so!
33 traders viewing now