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Trade Guider System VSA, fact or fiction?

  • #21
  • Apr 17, 2010 10:06am Apr 17, 2010 10:06am
Do not worry it reminds me all the time. Mostly just because I was not thinking straight or to biased. VSA showed the buying climax on eu at top , but i was so bull biased I ignored it. Only cost me 30 pip as i keep stops tight.

If success are random should we not be wrong 50% of the time ?

Now I am not saying vsa is the only way to trade either , but the one that has made the most sense to me in my 7 years of being in the markets. Aslo even if we are wrong 50% of the time , good money management skills are more key in this game than a good trading system

So many focus on the system and forget all about money management.

PS what is your education ? you seem to think at a very high level . I am a Civil Engineer myself.

Quoting asgard2
Congrats on your successful trade.

I have been a full time trader for quite some time and the market teaches me almost on a daily basis that I am not perfect and there is always scope for improvement. When I am over confident it swiftly reminds me how humble and insignificant I am.

If it hasn't yet reminded you, then I would suggest its coming

I might also remind you, picking the top of a trending market is one of the easiest things to do, picking the ceiling and floor of a sideways market is an enviable skill.

While I am happy to wear...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #22
  • Apr 17, 2010 10:17am Apr 17, 2010 10:17am
Quoting sharpster
Maybe you can share your trading plan with us here
Mate, I am just a regular forex trader that has survived the test of time.

I don't know of any magic bullet.

Let me tell you something though, you are ignoring provable logic at your own peril! No information ever comes easy, so write yourself a small script and run the numbers yourself.

Personally, I am really pleased if you are making money.. Good for you!
  • #23
  • Apr 17, 2010 10:29am Apr 17, 2010 10:29am
I just want to post that I still view volume as an important indicator when used in the traditional way for forex.

My problem is with the specific volume bar theory proposed by the trade guider method.
  • #24
  • Apr 17, 2010 10:56am Apr 17, 2010 10:56am
Quoting asgard2
Mate, I am just a regular forex trader that has survived the test of time.

I don't know of any magic bullet.

Let me tell you something though, you are ignoring provable logic at your own peril! No information ever comes easy, so write yourself a small script and run the numbers yourself.

Personally, I am really pleased if you are making money.. Good for you!

Actually, i am fairly new to fx, i mostly trade ftse100 shares EOD, i guess you could call me a trend follower using my own variation of the turtle rules, it works for me...not all the time but i make money in the long run and that`s what i trade for.

You said you are an fx trader who stood the test of time, so why not post your charts and set-ups for us all to learn from.
  • #25
  • Apr 17, 2010 11:00am Apr 17, 2010 11:00am
Maybe you`re just a little upset because you were banned from the VSA thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=6878
  • #26
  • Apr 17, 2010 11:40am Apr 17, 2010 11:40am
Quoting sharpster

You said you are an fx trader who stood the test of time, so why not post your charts and set-ups for us all to learn from.
Listen buddy, this is how it goes.

It is unlikely that anyone's trading experience can be wrapped into a couple of charts.

The chart setup does not make you anything. If you want to know what I use as my guide for entry.

I never enter a trade before I know where it should end and what my reward should be.

My stop is below the lowest/highest swing point.. I know I have missed the trade when my stop risk is more than 20% of the expected reward.

I use Metatrader charts with my own adjusted Fibonacci levels, Trend, Candlestick patterns, pivots and volume. I use 4 time frames. I have a couple of non standard entry methods based on tick movement and candle formation.

Most of the time the pivots are hidden and my Fibonacci levels are barely visible so I have an uncluttered chart and hopefully a clear head.

I expect to win 8 trades out of 10 and I find this to be relatively consistent. I rarely make more than two trades in one day.

In a sideways market and I stop trading especially if the price huggs one side too long.

My Guide for early exit, are some rules I wrote that I have in my management EA. All based on candlestick patterns and tick movement.

My management EA is a work in progress and I never stop improving it.

Thats it..
  • #27
  • Apr 17, 2010 11:47am Apr 17, 2010 11:47am
Quoting asgard2
Well, I am not about to argue with you.

Each to their own but I think I will be swapping volume indicators for an order flow indicator for my own trading.

I think to viably refute any argument, some evidentiary support needs to be forthcoming. I am not sure what conclusion can reasonably be achieved without it.

Not quite ready to give up your Linus blanket yet, Eh?
http://www.schulzmuseum.org/images/linus-blanket.jpg
I DO understand. I struggle occasionally with the urge to return to a nice simple black and white (or should I say red and green) system. But indicators try to distill human behaviour down to a mathematical formula resulting in a simple "If...Then" dichotomy. As such, they are doomed to fail. But at least you have the advantage that as long as you cling to indicator-based trading, you can always blame your failures on the indicators and not yourself. Of course, I suppose one could blame their failures with VSA on the methodology itself and not accept responsibility either.
"You can't have everything... where would you put it?"
  • #28
  • Edited 12:39pm Apr 17, 2010 12:08pm | Edited 12:39pm
Quoting sharpster
Maybe you`re just a little upset because you were banned http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=6783
Did you want to discuss anything on topic?
  • #29
  • Apr 17, 2010 12:32pm Apr 17, 2010 12:32pm
Quoting Rangerdoc
Not quite ready to give up your Linus blanket yet, Eh?
.
OK. people, I find it really flattering that my opinion matters so much to the people in that VSA thread.

When you lodge your report please ask the chief to send some of my peers (equals) next time. Be nice to waste some time engaged in intellectually elevated conversation on this topic.
  • #30
  • Apr 17, 2010 12:37pm Apr 17, 2010 12:37pm
A continuously logical account VSA gives for futures: 1. Volume s/r on futures: 1,2(/3).

Give me line patterns. Tried ages to get forex VSA; big and price-contrasting volume work, they're just more rare.
  • #31
  • Apr 17, 2010 12:59pm Apr 17, 2010 12:59pm
Quoting asgard2
Did you want to discuss anything on topic?

No, i`m bored with this already.
  • #32
  • Apr 17, 2010 1:03pm Apr 17, 2010 1:03pm
Quoting ha-pattern
A continuously logical account VSA gives for futures: 1. Volume s/r on futures: 1,2(/3).

Give me line patterns. Tried ages to get forex VSA; big and price-contrasting volume work, they're just more rare.
Thank you and at last someone sees a difference.

I use volumes and have done for a long time.. If the volume is continually going down and the price is going up. Then it could be an indication that interest in the price is dissipating.

Naturally, this decline must be compared to the same session times. The best indication I found to be one 60 minute time frames and CAN friday was a typical example. Something of interest is if there is a large move like that often the NY session will be totally flat with any movement constrained.

I am not sure why this is so but I never trade after London close if there has been a big move during the London session.
  • #33
  • Apr 17, 2010 3:10pm Apr 17, 2010 3:10pm
Ok here is a chart posted elsewhere on this forum so I thought it might be interesting to check it out from a trading perspective as an example.

The last week was bearish for this chart .. Bears++

The prior daily candle closed in a hanging man formation at a new high. Bears++

The wide range bar down was not under high volume and appeared after an inverted hammer. Bears++

The market had started and continued down past a strong support zone of the day prior Bears++

At the close of bar 1 how do you know that is not bar two?

It was the highest volume and at that point was great long hammer and it was a down bar.

So you should have entered at the open of bar three if you were not marking the charts in after the event and would have been backwards 41 points.

The Bar had blasted through the low and given all other bearish signs.. would you have closed the trade or would you have been stopped out at the low of 2 or would you have crossed your bits in hope?

As it was the day closed lower than is marked on this chart.. How successful was the method without the benefit of hindsight? I think the people doing up these charts are finding bars to fit the results after the event.
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  • #34
  • Apr 17, 2010 3:38pm Apr 17, 2010 3:38pm
Man another typical thread.. an FF member centred on intellectually discussing certain obvious cracks in a methodology being attacked by the narrow-minded lot bent on repairing their egos..

Good posts asgard, all true.. also agree with the last chart
  • #35
  • Apr 17, 2010 4:12pm Apr 17, 2010 4:12pm
odd you mention that Islander took this trade on bar 1

bar 1 forced me out of my sell off top of asia. Add to that that fact that that volume came on range low.

bar 1, 2 or 3 would have made you a nice tidy 60 pip and if you use 20 pip stops gu you will be stopped out 90% of the time.

Quoting asgard2
Ok here is a chart posted elsewhere on this forum so I thought it might be interesting to check it out from a trading perspective as an example.

The last week was bearish for this chart .. Bears++

The prior daily candle closed in a hanging man formation at a new high....
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #36
  • Apr 17, 2010 4:25pm Apr 17, 2010 4:25pm
odd you mention that Islander took this trade on bar 1

bar 1 forced me out of my sell.

bar 1, 2 or 3 would have made you a nice tidy 60 pip and stopped pn 76% reatrce of down move with a lovely double top hence my skype to my client gu is a sell here the very 1 minute bar it reversed for 80 pip to downside

You talk of a daily candle , yet you post a 15 min chart. Within one day we could have a range of 100 pip both up and down . In fact prior to GS news hitting the wires that is exactly what we had. Did bar 1,2 or 3 not produce 60 pip before market showed more weakness ?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=6859

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...36#post3643536

and others

Next argument please

Quoting asgard2
Ok here is a chart posted elsewhere on this forum so I thought it might be interesting to check it out from a trading perspective as an example.

The last week was bearish for this chart .. Bears++

The prior daily candle closed in a hanging man formation at a new high....
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #37
  • Apr 17, 2010 4:29pm Apr 17, 2010 4:29pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4373

now for chart

still maintain the reason you do not get it ... is cause you just do not get it! lol

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  • #38
  • Apr 17, 2010 4:35pm Apr 17, 2010 4:35pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4323

before

and after

guess there are some that get it and some that just do not get it. So this bs about posting charts in hindsight is complete nonsense.

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  • #39
  • Apr 17, 2010 4:48pm Apr 17, 2010 4:48pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...21#post3152521

result

Just call me a vsa rock star

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  • #40
  • Apr 17, 2010 4:50pm Apr 17, 2010 4:50pm
Now you can change the title of thread to

'vsa i do not get it'

Lol
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