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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #61,021
  • Apr 16, 2010 4:12pm Apr 16, 2010 4:12pm
I was real tempted to trade that AUDJPY i4b, but it wasn't quite good enough. the BEOBs on EURJPY and CHFJPY played out nicely too for those of you who played it.
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #61,022
  • Edited 8:00pm Apr 16, 2010 7:40pm | Edited 8:00pm
Hi,

i have a question regarding the DBHLC on the Eur/Jpy that appeared on my feed.

I was planning to play the retracement on this one, however it did not came. Looking at the way it broke downside, i would say that even if price retrace back to within the previous daily bar, it is no longer a valid trade anymore?

With regards to playing retracement trades, how do we consider if the trade is no longer valid?
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  • #61,023
  • Apr 16, 2010 8:14pm Apr 16, 2010 8:14pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Skin

Looks good bud, I like to put my TP just ahead of the round numbers(if taking profit from a short). This one bounced just before it then pierced through like a knife.

Best
Mike
Hi Mike,

Thanks for ur respond, yes when the first bounce, i was like damn it... winning turning into losing trade !!#$%^^... i would have move my stop to b/e if i am trading live... or may close out with some losses when H4 show a PB indicate that the price might be reversing up. so do u think it is advisable to hold on the trade before this piercing through 125 lvl happen?

Thanks,
skin
  • #61,024
  • Edited 8:45pm Apr 16, 2010 8:27pm | Edited 8:45pm
Autumm,
although i personally am not too strict with it, i'd like to know how many pips is the difference on both highs? looking at your chart, the second bar's high seem to be lower than the first bar's high.

the retracement didnt come simply because EUR was too weak. not to mention there was risk aversion again (which is JPY positive).

Quote
...With regards to playing retracement trades, how do we consider if the trade is no longer valid?
im not sure what u mean by 'valid/invalid' in this particular case..
if it retraced back a bit to the previous daily bar, it is still valid. the only difference is it made a minor retracement (than u've expected; let's say, more or less 38.2% ret)

if price is making little to no upside/downside retracement, it means price is very bearish/bullish.
so an alternative trade setup in eurjpy's case, if u are comfortable, u could've looked for retracements on the lower timeframes (since u didnt get a retracement on Daily) &/or traded a breakout on the lower timeframes.
on eurjpy M30, for example, u could have traded a TBL/TML (two-bar low/two matching low) breakout. if u put a horizontal line, M30 chart, around 125.05ish u will see the TBL. this is also near the 125.00, so u could've put your limit order under the 125.00 RN if u are conservative (specially since 125.00 is a PPZ -- check out H1/H4 chart).
again, do this if u are experienced/comfortable enough.

Hope this helps
  • #61,025
  • Apr 16, 2010 8:33pm Apr 16, 2010 8:33pm
Quoting skinfx
...so do u think it is advisable to hold on the trade before this piercing through 125 lvl happen?
...
Hello skin,
if i may...

it depends on your personality & risk appetite.
what u can do is exit some of your positions at/around 125.00 round number & leave some positions open to possibly extract more pips & exploit trends such as what happened to the jpy crosses like eurjpy today.
Hope this helps

Have a superb weekend ALL!!!
  • #61,026
  • Apr 16, 2010 10:18pm Apr 16, 2010 10:18pm
Hi,nasir.khan

can you tell the difference between breakouts and trend trading(peaks & valleys)? best to see chart examples if you don't mind ??

jeurre

Quoting nasir.khan
Well i do never know if my trades will go green or red. I never know that at the end of BAR will it turn out as a PB or not.

I do four things Breakouts , Trend trading (peaks and valleys), Touch trading and PA trading.

Firstly i would consider the market i am trading in which is the most important part. You can't trade trending technique in ranging markets and vise versa. This is the reason most people can't remain consistently profitable they take 10 pips on trend trades and lookout for runners in a ranging market.

Then i markdown my nearest...
  • #61,027
  • Apr 16, 2010 10:54pm Apr 16, 2010 10:54pm
Quoting Autumm
Hi,

i have a question regarding the DBHLC on the Eur/Jpy that appeared on my feed.

I was planning to play the retracement on this one, however it did not came. Looking at the way it broke downside, i would say that even if price retrace back to within the previous daily bar, it is no longer a valid trade anymore?

With regards to playing retracement trades, how do we consider if the trade is no longer valid?
I wouldn't enter a trade as a direct result of that bar anymore. It's too late , as you pointed out.

Once you've already had the momentum the first time, your odds decrease a lot for getting a successful run again.

If you're too late and miss out, just move on.

You're looking to take advantage of one of two things...

One.... is momentum from that bar the moment it does it's thing. (wether you catch a retracement entry or whatever). The best set up bars are large and close right at the extreme , or not far from it. The buying/selling pressure is strong at THAT time. This time you missed it. Don't get beat up over it. You need to evaluate your strategy over many trades, not just one.

Two.... is another independent setup off of the same level later on. Another pin or BEOB or whatever next week or something off of that 127.70 or so level again. This is where sellers came in, twice.

The only other valid option is in cases where the following movement went far enough to break through another valid level you could base another trade off of when it retraces to it. (A really good level with good confluences. ) Wether on the same time frame or whatever.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #61,028
  • Apr 16, 2010 11:19pm Apr 16, 2010 11:19pm
Quoting mbqb11
...They are like how can you do anything without the news! Yet I get grilled about it every time.

Case in point last night here is an IM from a good friend.
...
H************k 1:19 am
(1:19:16 AM): does the accident in iceland affect u?
.
.
Quoting TiaForex
My favourite line was one of yours for when someone asks where the euro is

"I dunno.... one something?"

I Lol'd at these.

We must all have this happen all the time.

People get puzzled when you haven't got a clue what's happening in market or world news. "Oh.... Aren't you playing with shares anymore?" (Yeah... "Shares" ...I stopped correcting people ages ago. LOL)

The old girl still doesn't understand how I make money when things go bad too. lol
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #61,029
  • Apr 17, 2010 12:19am Apr 17, 2010 12:19am
Quoting Bemac
Here's how...
Attachment
I mean with pictures etc.
Keeping it simple stupid.
  • #61,030
  • Apr 17, 2010 12:27am Apr 17, 2010 12:27am
Quoting Stockwalker
I mean with pictures etc.
That's a software. Send Cyrus a PM about it.
.
  • #61,031
  • Edited 1:26am Apr 17, 2010 12:39am | Edited 1:26am
Quoting Ghettobuddha
Hey Nasir,

Was wondering did you close out and go long on your UJ? This is my first touch trade Long off 92.24. Just wondering what you think.
I closed my trades but i did not took a touch trade to go long.

From my personal experience,

I got burned most of the times when i took touch trades on the very first big candle/bar after the breakouts.
So it's better to wait and let the bar close and then make your decision and looking at that huge bearish bar in uj i don't have the gut's to take a touch trade on a real account.
.
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  • #61,032
  • Apr 17, 2010 12:58am Apr 17, 2010 12:58am
Quoting jeurre
Hi,nasir.khan

can you tell the difference between breakouts and trend trading(peaks & valleys)? best to see chart examples if you don't mind ??

jeurre

This one i call a breakout and P&V trades are lying out in the Peaks and Valleys thread.

I only use peaks and valleys while adding in a trend trade but not much for reversal trades. On the other hand Breakout could be both a trend trade or a CT.
  • #61,033
  • Apr 17, 2010 2:08am Apr 17, 2010 2:08am
Quoting skinfx
Hi Mike,

Thanks for ur respond, yes when the first bounce, i was like damn it... winning turning into losing trade !!#$%^^... i would have move my stop to b/e if i am trading live... or may close out with some losses when H4 show a PB indicate that the price might be reversing up. so do u think it is advisable to hold on the trade before this piercing through 125 lvl happen?

Thanks,
skin
Hey Skin

It really depends on too many factors to make too general of a statement. My general rule is not to trade into major PPZs for this reason as it leaves you sort of up in the air with trade mgmt(again that is a personal thing). In general if I find a good trade into a strong area I am flat taking profit or moving to b/e pretty quick. The more confident I am in my trade the more I tend to let it breathe.

Best
Mike
  • #61,034
  • Apr 17, 2010 2:59am Apr 17, 2010 2:59am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey D

For me it doesn't matter in terms of why.

When I entered my usd/cad long I looked at the technical pattern which was setting us up for a "fake" break(induce weak sellers) of 1.0 and that failure and it being friday would be my explanation....
Nice video Mike...thanks for sharing
  • #61,035
  • Apr 17, 2010 6:19am Apr 17, 2010 6:19am
heres a couple of classic pinbar trades that worked out well. 1h TF,not for everyone. i have noted on the chart my views on this trade. the great thing about getting a nice run like this is that you get the chance to turn your scalp into a longer term trade fairly easily.

jon
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PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #61,036
  • Edited 6:40am Apr 17, 2010 6:27am | Edited 6:40am
Hi,

Second demo trade.

EUR/JPY daily. Had a DBHLC on Thursday. The low of second bar was 125.80 and the close was 126.26. I placed a sell order at 125.65 which was below what I thought was a PPZ on the 4hr.

About 9 hours later I had about 50pip profit although it had gone lower. Had gone to bed and was annoyed I missed out (I didnt expect it to happen so soon). I decided to move my stop to break even. My stop kicked in and I ended up missing out on about 130 pip profit. It fell below another PPZ which was also a 38fib line from a major high to major low.

Should I have just taken the 50 pip profit or should I have left my stop loss where it was originally?

Thanks!
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  • #61,037
  • Apr 17, 2010 6:27am Apr 17, 2010 6:27am
heres the other.

jon
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PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #61,038
  • Edited 7:02am Apr 17, 2010 6:35am | Edited 7:02am
Quoting Scotty2Cues
Hi,

Second demo trade.

EUR/JPY daily. Had a DBHLC on Thursday. The low of second bar was 125.80 and the close was 126.26. I placed a sell order at 125.65 which was below what I thought was a PPZ on the 4hr.

About 9 hours later I had about 50pip profit although it had gone lower. I decided to move my stop to break even. My stop kicked in and I missed out on about 130 pip profit. It fell below another PPZ which was also a 38fib line from a major high to major low.

Should I have just taken the 50 pip profit or should I have left my stop loss...
hey Scotty, trade management is a personal thing and as a person gains experience he/she will start to get an idea of what is comfortable to them. i know Mike for e.g. never takes partial profit where as i like to leave a third to try and catch a runner. What i can say for sure is that both me and Mike would have known what we were going to do in advance of pulling the trigger. for e.g. i took full profits on my real account at 65.15 on the nz/yen trade (my personal choice of buffer that place on top off /below RNs when i open/close positions )btw that was the only trade i took on my real acc. from the 2 yen pinbars.
back test your trades and see which style would have given the best returns, as im sure each trading style would give different results.

hope this helps a little

jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #61,039
  • Apr 17, 2010 6:38am Apr 17, 2010 6:38am
Was up early this weekend morning..quiet...family sleeping...thought I would contribute by posting this chart...

Keep in mind new to J16 but trying to apply the principles I've learned here and apply my past learning experiences.

The chart jumped out at me since I saw several trades on the daily. I am sure others may have already posted them.

Note that there are other confluences that I neglected to mark, eg. RN's etc. and for this I apologize.

Further, there are other signals that I didn't mark but could have-the chart just started to get distracting.

Keep in mind I'm not saying what I posted is correct....my intent is to contribute or reflect on the learning process.

Thanks to all who are here!
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  • #61,040
  • Apr 17, 2010 6:44am Apr 17, 2010 6:44am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
hey Scotty, trade management is a personal thing and as a person gains experience he/she will start to get an idea of what is comfortable to them. i know Mike for e.g. never takes partial profit where as i like to leave a third to try and catch a runner. What i can say for sure is that both me and Mike would have known what we were going to do in advance of pulling the trigger. for e.g. i took full profits on my real account at 65.15 (my personal choice of buffer that place on top off /below RNs when i open/close positions )btw that was the only...
ok. thanks for the reply!
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