Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

I agree. I trade on a longer time frame, so I don't look at a lot of the trade calls , although it has made me more aware of other opportunities I may not have noticed (like your CHF call earlier in the week)


You have been a great help to a lot of people . Don't let a small group put you off, you have a right to be here


Kim

Goldman Sachs have just been charged with fraud. VIX has jumped 2.0% from yesterday. Goldman's shares have dropped over 7%.

Bring it on .... might just be the catalyst for that indice correction ....

It is about time.

Double that Goldman stock now down over 10.5%

This is my favourite quote from Matt Taibbi:

"The world's most powerful investment bank is a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/matt-...#ixzz0lH8Ygaqt

Vix on the move.

shabab do you have a pending short at 0135? i seem to recollect somethging like that, though i have searched your posts and havent found any reference.

hey shah..... tend to post little but read a lot myself..... however, will not miss the opportiunity to post "thank you" here.....

people do tend to shake the tree that bears the most fruit..... so maybe there is some consolation there.......

and you have attracted several others that post helpful and constructive information also.......

thanks again......h

Hi I have been monitoring this thread for quite sometime. Had it enlighten me how the free site timingcharts.com has been an invaluable giveaways for possible turnaround.

Today I use it to my advantage. Of cos I dun trade them directly I use it as anti correlation/measure the risk averse of traders. S&P500=DOW=DOW JONES is opposite to USDX (Risk Haven) and more r less anti correlated to OIL.

http://www.global-view.com/gvi3/char...5_image020.gif


http://www.global-view.com/gvi3/char...5_image019.gif

Range 0 to 100. A reading of 50 means longs and shorts are equal.

Hi Shahab,

GS dropped the bomb and quickly changed the picture. It also changed the Aussie COT picture. The commitment shows that there is still a 2409 contracts net gain in the currency, but the GLOBEX daily chart shows a not so bullish scenario. It's already in the RSI overbought level and has started to decline. Also the COT is at 100 which I learned is the extreme level, so the market may squeeze some of the weak sisters and drop more. My idea is to try to short the AUD/USD on rallies, with risk aversion coming into the picture. I'll post a quick 1 hour chart with some channels and fibonacci resistance levels. You're the Aussie trader and you're more experienced so any insights will be very useful. Any rally or test to the channel top or the fibo levels might be considered short opportunity with reasonable SL. The chart also depicts a bullish divergence which might help drive the price to these levels. Hope it's a clear chart.

P.S. I've started reading the thread from the beginning while it's not thousand of pages. I see that you rely on the patterns. I've got some PDFs of them, maybe people that follow you will be interested to read about them. I'm attaching them.

Shorting the AUD in the midst of earnings season may not be the right time (unless scalping profit-taking or panic moves). It is currently in an ascending pattern, expecting another push north. It has presently retraced to the trend line that was acting as resistance, now likely to act as support.

Also, the S&P futures have yet to hit the 61.8 fib - the monthly chart below shows the historical resistance point is not far away at around 1236. Retracements to the 61.8 fib before turning again are quite common. It should test hard at this point - providing plenty of opportunity to recognise a potential reversal - bull markets seldom if ever turn around in a hurry.

I'd also be happier about shorting the AUD if the EUR/AUD cross was sitting on a fib, but it isn't (see chart below). The next south stopping point for the cross is around 1.4250.

hi guys
reversal candles
seems next week risk aversion lead the market.
AUDusd daily
http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/5x...h0kr_thumb.gif
Audusd weekly
http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/x9...5z88_thumb.gif

GBpusd daily
http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/v2...i67t_thumb.gif

Audyen weekly
http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/ms...7zhh_thumb.gif

Good luck

hi guys,

i dont know where my previous post has gone as i dont see it in the forum. anyway is it a good time to short aud ?? the cot has risen to 100 from 97 so is it bullish or bearish.

didn't we just go thru this dang gap business last week.... least this time the are in my direction and not against me...... subject to change of course.....

//------ 10 days left in the tax effect.....h

SSI: USDCHF Shorts Surge 65% as Retail Traders Fade Three-Day Rally
Monday, 19 Apr 2010 09:53 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, DailyFX Research

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:




Intraday Highlight:

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.03 as nearly 51% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.78 as 64% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.0% lower than yesterday and 12.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 64.7% higher than yesterday and 69.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 20.1% stronger than yesterday and 17.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.06 as nearly 52% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.03 as 51% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 13.6% higher than yesterday and 13.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 10.7% higher than yesterday and 9.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 12.2% stronger than yesterday and 6.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.15 as nearly 53% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.26 as 56% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 21.7% higher than yesterday and 11.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 15.7% lower than yesterday and 26.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.9% stronger than yesterday and 4.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.15 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.14 as 53% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 17.2% higher than yesterday and 23.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 15.7% higher than yesterday and 4.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 16.5% stronger than yesterday and 5.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 2.52 as nearly 72% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.02 as 80% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 21.6% lower than yesterday and 41.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 25.1% higher than yesterday and 20.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 12.3% weaker than yesterday and 13.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.83 as nearly 65% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.27 as 69% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.9% lower than yesterday and 29.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 20.6% higher than yesterday and 48.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.3% stronger than yesterday and 9.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 1.26 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.16 as 54% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 34.2% higher than yesterday and 16.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 8.1% lower than yesterday and 30.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 11.5% stronger than yesterday and 7.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD losses.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.20 as nearly 55% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.27 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 14.0% higher than yesterday and 15.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 20.8% higher than yesterday and 6.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 17.0% stronger than yesterday and 7.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.

hey p...... thanks....... looks like my trades against those guys in every pair except the usdjpy...... i'm in that same leaky long boat..... somebody better start bailing soon or i will.......

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that pretty pie chart has given me yet another idea.... maybe we could export our trades along with theirs to excel and build similar charts to compare........

then we could call it,

FXCM vs FF Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics ........


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fwiw, eurgbp sunday gap still open...... and eurjpy is sitting on the past support line...... both could go either way of course......h

At: 1.3520, 1.3541
sl: 1.3600
tp: 1.3465, 3410

Same here at 35.19

What's your stop and tps?. Asking as we may be doing different time frames)
Thanks

At 8870,
stop: 8920
tp: 8810, 8785,8710