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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #1,961
  • Apr 16, 2010 1:40am Apr 16, 2010 1:40am
  •  aghast
  • | Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Fixed Income & Currencies Trader | 58 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
E/u short trade

I was supposed to show the result of my interpretation of RSI S>R in this trade here is the result
risk 2% returned 4% due to good RRR , note the RSI move in accordance to PA
Hi Shabab,

is the RSI a previous support turning resistance a reliable and higher probability call? I have actually never observed it this way and I can't make any comments on that, but on the eur/usd trade it stopped exactly at the previous RSI support and turned down even if the price didn't reach the same level. Maybe you're using it and have observed it more. Can you comment on that?
Fortune always favors the brave.
  • #1,962
  • Apr 16, 2010 4:38am Apr 16, 2010 4:38am
SSI: Retail NZDUSD Positioning Flips on 30% Drop in Longs
Friday, 16 Apr 2010 09:14 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, DailyFX Research

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

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Intraday Highlight:

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.33 as nearly 57% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.25 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 30.5% lower than yesterday and 16.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 15.1% higher than yesterday and 10.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 10.2% weaker than yesterday and 1.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.17 as nearly 54% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.13 as 53% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.6% higher than yesterday and 4.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 5.8% higher than yesterday and 4.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.3% stronger than yesterday and 7.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.46 as nearly 59% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.71 as 63% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 6.0% higher than yesterday and 1.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 9.5% lower than yesterday and 5.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.8% weaker than yesterday and 0.3% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.10 as nearly 52% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.42 as 59% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 24.5% higher than yesterday and 13.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 20.0% lower than yesterday and 15.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.6% weaker than yesterday and 7.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 3.17 as nearly 76% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.61 as 72% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.9% higher than yesterday and 71.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 11.9% lower than yesterday and 14.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.7% stronger than yesterday and 30.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 3.27 as nearly 77% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.24 as 76% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.2% lower than yesterday and 7.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.9% lower than yesterday and 7.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.4% weaker than yesterday and 1.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.64 as nearly 62% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.15 as 68% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.7% lower than yesterday and 19.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 28.8% higher than yesterday and 0.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 8.0% stronger than yesterday and 22.3% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.48 as nearly 60% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.87 as 65% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 14.5% higher than yesterday and 10.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 9.2% lower than yesterday and 12.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.9% weaker than yesterday and 6.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,963
  • Apr 16, 2010 6:19am Apr 16, 2010 6:19am
Quoting blurbear
From high of 9363 to today's low so far of 9284, seems like ABCD completed. Maybe bouncing now towards 9330 and slightly higher.

Possibly a bigger BAT or CRAB perhaps forming on the 4 hourlies if 9363 is not taken out.

Attachment
you were right, that's my first thought even I posted the chart here then I got ride of it , fortunately I stopped out at B/E no worries
  • #1,964
  • Apr 16, 2010 6:21am Apr 16, 2010 6:21am
Quoting OvT
on this setup, with high correlation now between e/u and a/u, i notice that e/u seems challenging the S 1.3532, and when it breaks a/u might probably follow down as well, what do you think?
E/U is a descending triangle
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  • #1,965
  • Apr 16, 2010 6:27am Apr 16, 2010 6:27am
Quoting aghast
Hi Shabab,

is the RSI a previous support turning resistance a reliable and higher probability call? I have actually never observed it this way and I can't make any comments on that, but on the eur/usd trade it stopped exactly at the previous RSI support and turned down even if the price didn't reach the same level. Maybe you're using it and have observed it more. Can you comment on that?
I posted that to show you where to look for S turned R and visa versa on the chart, it has no meaning if you don't look at the PA first , if you see the PA and RSI confirms your findings your chance of success is double. price doesn't need to reach the previous level in that case , I drew the path of RSI on the chart as you see, you know if the trade is wrong based on that.
  • #1,966
  • Apr 16, 2010 6:27am Apr 16, 2010 6:27am
Quoting shahab8b
E/U is a descending triangle
I am seeing double bottom in 1H chart in EU.

As usual, long at 1.3525 - stop at 60 pips and 1st TP at 1.3565, move stop to BE and then the second TP at 1.3590 (weekly R1) and depending on the PA, the second TP can be extended to 1.3655 (Daily R1).

Cheers
  • #1,967
  • Apr 16, 2010 6:28am Apr 16, 2010 6:28am
G/U short scalping (daily pivot + 5min div) short around 1.5465
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  • #1,968
  • Apr 16, 2010 6:53am Apr 16, 2010 6:53am
Quoting Patience
SSI: Retail NZDUSD Positioning Flips on 30% Drop in Longs
Friday, 16 Apr 2010 09:14 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, DailyFX Research

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

Attachment
Attachment

Intraday Highlight:

NZDUSD[font=Arial] - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.33 as nearly 57% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.25...
G'day Patience, have you look at some indicies recently, they seem unstoppable? I think we are about to see something serious.
take a look at this NASDAQ weekly chart, we are about to re-test the neckline of the H & Sh top
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  • #1,969
  • Apr 16, 2010 6:59am Apr 16, 2010 6:59am
Quoting shahab8b
G/U short scalping (daily pivot + 5min div) short around 1.5465
still in play, lets see if they come down a bit more so I can move SL>B/E

i risked 1% aiming to get a 4% return (sl,12 tp 50)
17-18 pips so far
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  • #1,970
  • Apr 16, 2010 7:34am Apr 16, 2010 7:34am
long U/j at .9260 SL=27 TP=45
  • #1,971
  • Apr 16, 2010 7:40am Apr 16, 2010 7:40am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
still in play, lets see if they come down a bit more so I can move SL>B/E

i risked 1% aiming to get a 4% return (sl,12 tp 50)
17-18 pips so far
Hey there Shahab,
Nice call . I see you go for some short-term trades as well now the last days. Good thing to do in such a "rollercoaster-week"
S/R work here the same way on smaller timeframes.

Are you still holding the E/U shorts and U/CHF long?
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #1,972
  • Apr 16, 2010 8:10am Apr 16, 2010 8:10am
G/U mission accomplished : risked 1% returned 4% RRR=1:4
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  • #1,973
  • Apr 16, 2010 8:15am Apr 16, 2010 8:15am
E/U
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  • #1,974
  • Apr 16, 2010 8:17am Apr 16, 2010 8:17am
U/chf long
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  • #1,975
  • Apr 16, 2010 8:20am Apr 16, 2010 8:20am
Shahab, how did A/U treat you last night? Just got back and read a couple of posts back that there was a little bit of whipsaw action going on.

I'm waiting for the Daily S2 to get hit again.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #1,976
  • Apr 16, 2010 8:34am Apr 16, 2010 8:34am
Quoting Tuner
Hey there Shahab,
Nice call . I see you go for some short-term trades as well now the last days. Good thing to do in such a "rollercoaster-week"
S/R work here the same way on smaller timeframes.

Are you still holding the E/U shorts and U/CHF long?
hey tuner , thanx for you appreciation,I still have two short E/U and two long U/Chf with SL>B/E (1.3574, 1.0567)


on a separate note; I realized that my thread and trade calls made some good friends as well as some enemies , I have been receiving lots of pm recently- most of them for appreciation but a few quite annoying.
in addition to that, I put myself under pressure to be right for sake of others who are trading the calls which led to some hasty trade calls that I usually don't take when I'm alone.
Having said that ,I've decided to post less from now on, just on occasional basis as I've already said what I should have said. I will post but not like before .I mentioned all the necessary points regarding the COT analysis and my TA approach. some find it useful some not, that's ok.
there are lots of seasoned trader posting here that need non of these things but I did it for sake of helping some newbies searching for something to improve their trading method. I didn't want them to learn it the hard way as I did back in 2007 while taking long on U/Cad which brought me a margin call.

well I think, that's all. have a good day
  • #1,977
  • Apr 16, 2010 8:45am Apr 16, 2010 8:45am
Quoting shahab8b
hey tuner , thanx for you appreciation,I still have two short E/U and two long U/Chf with SL>B/E (1.3574, 1.0567)


[font=Verdana][color=Red]on a separate note; I realized that my thread and trade calls made some good friends as well as some enemies , I have been receiving lots of pm recently- most of them for appreciation but a few quite annoying.
in addition to that, I put myself under pressure to be right for sake of others who are trading the calls which led to some hasty trade calls that I usually don't take when I'm alone.
Having said that...
I am sorry to hear a few have ruined it for the rest of us. I enjoy following and taking some of your trades. People need to realize they have the final say in taking a trade. If they don't agree with you or understand your reason for the trade they should stand aside. I for one really appreciate how great you have made this thread.
  • #1,978
  • Apr 16, 2010 9:04am Apr 16, 2010 9:04am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
[quote=shahab8b;3645507]hey tuner , thanx for you appreciation,I still have two short E/U and two long U/Chf with SL>B/E (1.3574, 1.0567)

on a separate note; I realized that my thread and trade calls made some good friends as well as some enemies , I have been receiving lots of pm recently- most of them for appreciation but a few quite annoying.
in addition to that, I put myself under pressure to be right for sake of others who are trading the calls which led to some hasty trade calls that I usually don't......[/quote]

Shahab,
I think I said it lots of times before, but I really appreciate(d) all you efforts on here. Spending a lot of time..mostly to help others on here (sharing your knowledge and your calls)
Only Benefit for you could be that you as posting a trade setup on here, explaining it,.. you think more about it and maybe get another opinion before placing it
(but I'm pretty sure in your case you either way analyze deeply befor you place any trade)
So it's mostly or only us followers profiting from your posts.

If it puts you under pressure and harms your own trading (and profit!!) this is the worst thing to happen for you.
The even getting annoying PM is a shame.

I can understand your decision to post less after that.

I always tried to understand your calls, overthink it.. then place it.. or not. Learned a lot (in that short time) I would say.
Helped me a lot to improve my trading-approach and I thank you for that.

Still hope you won't quit posting completely and still have you around here.

All the best!


Tuner
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #1,979
  • Apr 16, 2010 9:05am Apr 16, 2010 9:05am
Quoting shahab8b
G'day Patience, have you look at some indicies recently, they seem unstoppable? I think we are about to see something serious.
take a look at this NASDAQ weekly chart, we are about to re-test the neckline of the H & Sh top
I have and I don't know what to think because I thought we would have had a correction by now. That chart looks really scary. All I know (or have read) is that a healthy bull market needs corrections. The average Joe Blogg must be kicking himself thinking he'll get back in on the next dip but it hasn't materialised. My other half wants to buy some more shares and I've been saying for weeks now "wait, wait, a correction is going to happen" - lol - we are now having bets with each other which week it's going to start. I'm obviously out of the money. I'm just glad that I don't play the indices because I would have lost a tonne of money trying to short it.

Was just looking at the VIX. You would never believe we are coming out of the worst financial crisis in 100 years.

Attached Image
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,980
  • Apr 16, 2010 9:16am Apr 16, 2010 9:16am
Quoting shahab8b
on a separate note; I realized that my thread and trade calls made some good friends as well as some enemies , I have been receiving lots of pm recently- most of them for appreciation but a few quite annoying.
Huh? Are you serious? OMG, some people Don't let it get you down Shahab. You can't help people like this - they'll blow their account anyway. They just want to be spoonfed - probably using your trades as a free signal service without even bothering trying to understand the analysis behind it.

Have a restful weekend - you need a break - I know posting can be time consuming. They should be thankful you have given your time.
Nothing worth having is easy.
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