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Odds are with a 4hr KISS

  • #161
  • Apr 15, 2010 9:38am Apr 15, 2010 9:38am
Quoting Rastaman
I am sure everyone knows there is nothing mysterious about pin bars.

They are simply a Head and shoulders pattern if you move down a time frame.

like this one on D1, on H4 it is a reverse Head and shoulders.



I only mention this as I myself did not know what they were till I studied at J16.
Actually, this is quite important if you think about it.

That D1 PB was not very successful and the reason is, if you go down to H4 you see it is a R H&S which is a bullish signal, but this one is in an uptrend, we want to see a Head & Shoulders at...
Nice Charts. I do the same thing...look at Daily every now and then to see if there is any obvious candles that stick out and then look at the h4 for an entry. Looks like you are on the right track! Keep up the good work.
  • #162
  • Apr 15, 2010 9:47am Apr 15, 2010 9:47am
Quoting Tw0eleven
Nice Charts. I do the same thing...look at Daily every now and then to see if there is any obvious candles that stick out and then look at the h4 for an entry. Looks like you are on the right track! Keep up the good work.
Yeah, the thing is, you can go back years and find a nice PA candle on the weekly, then highlight the top and bottom and wait in lair for it.

As the great Jesse Livermore said, 'We get paid to wait"!
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Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #163
  • Apr 15, 2010 11:53am Apr 15, 2010 11:53am
Quoting Tw0eleven
Good eye, same thing setting up on EJ chart too.
Not sure if you or anyone else took the EU short, but I see it worked for 30pips. I took the EJ short and made a nice little profit...entry was at 126.57.
  • #164
  • Apr 15, 2010 11:57am Apr 15, 2010 11:57am
Quoting Rastaman
Yeah, the thing is, you can go back years and find a nice PA candle on the weekly, then highlight the top and bottom and wait in lair for it.

As the great Jesse Livermore said, 'We get paid to wait"!
Very true. I think patience is very important in trading fx. The trades must come to you! You can't anticipate and jump into a trade ahead of time unless you want to lose money!

Another nice chart rastaman. I took a look at EU monthly and see the 1991 candle you are talking about. Also, there is a "Peak" in price Dec. 2004 at the same area.
  • #165
  • Apr 15, 2010 1:32pm Apr 15, 2010 1:32pm
Something to watch...
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #166
  • Apr 15, 2010 2:04pm Apr 15, 2010 2:04pm
Quoting Olu
Something to watch...

Yep, could be good for longs. I still have a hard time reading UCad though. Sometimes it trends so well, other times it's horrible...stops on a dime and reverses at weird places. Also, I typically only look for 30pips profit on this pair( just like EU and AU) because I never know when it's going to have a slow day or a breakout day...figure being conservative is best!

Cheers!
  • #167
  • Apr 15, 2010 2:14pm Apr 15, 2010 2:14pm
Tw0eleven

you are right. cad is a bit erratic. Take tonight(now uk time) ucad is going up while the gbpusd and eurusd are going up. it should be the opposite.

however what if this is the early stages of an abc correction in the ucad. Put in some stock market weakness and voila it will be a good story 700 pips later

For the time being we need to trade what we see. Keep our feet on solid ground
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #168
  • Apr 15, 2010 2:35pm Apr 15, 2010 2:35pm
Quoting Olu
Tw0eleven

you are right. cad is a bit erratic. Take tonight(now uk time) ucad is going up while the gbpusd and eurusd are going up. it should be the opposite.

however what if this is the early stages of an abc correction in the ucad. Put in some stock market weakness and voila it will be a good story 700 pips later

For the time being we need to trade what we see. Keep our feet on solid ground
Well said! Just a little side note...I see Ucad did have a semi-bullish engulfing candle on the last candle that closed above the 5&20 ma's...5 is about to cross the 20 and macd histogram is starting to move up. The bullish engulfing candle was only about 50pips big too....so if someone entered on the pullback to the 20 ma(about 1.0000) they would be up 30pips already!!! Amazing!
  • #169
  • Edited 7:43pm Apr 15, 2010 7:30pm | Edited 7:43pm
Just sold EU at 135490

Now,let the market decide how generous it wants to be.

EDIT: Chart hard to see in black.
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Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #170
  • Apr 15, 2010 7:45pm Apr 15, 2010 7:45pm
Quoting Rastaman
Just sold EU at 135490

Now,let the market decide how generous it wants to be.

EDIT: Chart hard to see in black.
Just curious how you got that entry? Did you wait for price to break candle low? IMHO, it looks like EU gave a short signal with pullback that would have an entry anywhere from 1.3460-80 which means you'd already have or be close to 30pips profit.
  • #171
  • Apr 15, 2010 7:54pm Apr 15, 2010 7:54pm
Quoting Tw0eleven
Well said! Just a little side note...I see Ucad did have a semi-bullish engulfing candle on the last candle that closed above the 5&20 ma's...5 is about to cross the 20 and macd histogram is starting to move up. The bullish engulfing candle was only about 50pips big too....so if someone entered on the pullback to the 20 ma(about 1.0000) they would be up 30pips already!!! Amazing!
I was looking for that pullback but did not get it. It apears I have missed the train on this one. I was looking for 1.0010 to get long
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #172
  • Apr 15, 2010 8:00pm Apr 15, 2010 8:00pm
Quoting Tw0eleven
Just curious how you got that entry? Did you wait for price to break candle low? IMHO, it looks like EU gave a short signal with pullback that would have an entry anywhere from 1.3460-80 which means you'd already have or be close to 30pips profit.

The PB right off the daily pivot, at the cross of the 20 & 6 EMA, the nose pierces the Monthly & weekly pivot which is a round number at 1.35380.
The back of that pb has already been tested and not violated. Also, I live in Japan and just got up a while back, and started my day.

This could well be a runner worth well over a hundred pips easily, I feel no need to rush. Of course this trade is not a recommendation to anyone to take, it is simply my humble opinion.
Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #173
  • Apr 15, 2010 8:05pm Apr 15, 2010 8:05pm
Quoting Rastaman
The PB right off the daily pivot, at the cross of the 20 & 6 EMA, the nose pierces the Monthly & weekly pivot which is a round number at 1.35380.
The back of that pb has already been tested and not violated. Also, I live in Japan and just got up a while back, and started my day.

This could well be a runner worth well over a hundred pips easily, I feel no need to rush. Of course this trade is not a recommendation to anyone to take, it is simply my humble opinion.
Ah, gotcha...my entries are soley based on 4hr. I may look at the Daily/Weekly/Monthly charts every now and then just to see if something sticks out...but I always scaled down to the 4hr for trading.

Goodluck to you sir...may the pips be with you!
  • #174
  • Apr 15, 2010 8:07pm Apr 15, 2010 8:07pm
Quoting Olu
I was looking for that pullback but did not get it. It apears I have missed the train on this one. I was looking for 1.0010 to get long
My charts show ucad pulled back to 1.0011 on the last candle (between 4pm-8pm EST)....but you might not have been around for that. Oh well, You did a great job posting the chart and seeing the setup...we can't trade them all. We need to sleep, spend time with family, go out and have fun...so we just take what we can get when we can.
  • #175
  • Apr 15, 2010 8:08pm Apr 15, 2010 8:08pm
Ladies and Gentlemen,

The market was very kind to me this week...have exceeded all my goals so I will be taking tomorrow off and enjoying a round of golf! Goodluck and have a good weekend to all!
  • #176
  • Apr 15, 2010 8:24pm Apr 15, 2010 8:24pm
Quoting Tw0eleven
Ladies and Gentlemen,

The market was very kind to me this week...have exceeded all my goals so I will be taking tomorrow off and enjoying a round of golf! Goodluck and have a good weekend to all!
Enjoy your game T

Exercise and trading go hand in hand.
Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #177
  • Apr 15, 2010 9:50pm Apr 15, 2010 9:50pm
Quoting Tw0eleven
Not sure if you or anyone else took the EU short, but I see it worked for 30pips. I took the EJ short and made a nice little profit...entry was at 126.57.
I did! I saw the bearish pin bar before I went to bed, and set a sell limit around the 5ema with a target of 30 pips. Woke up in the morning and got my pips. Minimal work!
  • #178
  • Apr 15, 2010 10:04pm Apr 15, 2010 10:04pm
I am noticing that a lot of people are talking about TP of 30-60 pips!

I also trade an M15 system where average TP is 50 pips and very often well over 100 pips.

Possibly letting a trade run more and cutting the losers short with good money management is a way to extract more profit out of the H4.
Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #179
  • Edited 2:13am Apr 16, 2010 2:02am | Edited 2:13am
EJ was 50 pips in profit but I decided to just move the SL to a tolerable area of support and hold on to it for the LO. It may go much further and let me move SL to BE+.


Just showing this on M15 so we can see the series of lower high and lower lows, as we come for a test of the 23.6 fibo.

EU looking pretty much as EJ.
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Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #180
  • Apr 16, 2010 5:56am Apr 16, 2010 5:56am
Quoting fthingf
I did! I saw the bearish pin bar before I went to bed, and set a sell limit around the 5ema with a target of 30 pips. Woke up in the morning and got my pips. Minimal work!

Excellent, nice work!!! That's exactly how I'd like this method to be. Simple and minimal work allowing a person to use their time for other things such as family, working around the house, golfing, etc... Have a good weekend.
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