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Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

  • #401
  • Apr 14, 2010 4:49am Apr 14, 2010 4:49am
Quoting IdentifyTren
USDCAD seems to be an interesting one to study at the moment...
Ya, it will be interesting to see what USD releases do to it in a few hours.
  • #402
  • Apr 14, 2010 5:28am Apr 14, 2010 5:28am
Quoting Saxon
Haha, I hope not

Thanks for the update, I got that pair on my screen now. I don't really trade that pair but I will definitely keep an eye on it now. How the trades been going for you?
that's a pretty good bounce for some pips from the top? i did not take though missed it again =(

so far this week's been good to me, u/j and e/u trade but haven't found anything high probability today yet
am thinking of taking long for e/u as it's approaching S 1.36200 again, what do you reckon?

ya trade_price started g/j and i just kept it there since
  • #403
  • Apr 14, 2010 5:34am Apr 14, 2010 5:34am
Quoting Saxon
Looks like it took the bounce.
the R did hold, but the bounces aren't that many pips, did you take any?
  • #404
  • Edited 5:46am Apr 14, 2010 5:36am | Edited 5:46am
Quoting OvT
that's a pretty good bounce for some pips from the top? i did not take though missed it again =(

so far this week's been good to me, u/j and e/u trade but haven't found anything high probability today yet
am thinking of taking long for e/u as it's approaching S 1.36200 again, what do you reckon?

ya trade_price started g/j and i just kept it there since
took a long e/u tight SL targeting 1.36440
edit - bad trade it was, stopped out and S broken
  • #405
  • Apr 14, 2010 6:23am Apr 14, 2010 6:23am
Quoting Saxon
Haha, I hope not

Thanks for the update, I got that pair on my screen now. I don't really trade that pair but I will definitely keep an eye on it now. How the trades been going for you?
I have read through this thread and i like what i see. since there is no dumb question, i guess i can ask this.Attached is a 15 minutes chart of GBP/JPY. I see a head and shoulders formation.
if it clears 144.50 as the neckline then price should go up more than 200pips( judging from distance b/w head and neckline.) at least that is what i was taught in basic chart formations.
1.) fundamentally, can the USD go any higher to drive this pair that up?
2.) is this a valid pattern or am i just seeing what i want to see?
current price is 144.21. so saxon, what do you think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #406
  • Apr 14, 2010 6:27am Apr 14, 2010 6:27am
Quoting abasiakara
I have read through this thread and i like what i see. since there is no dumb question, i guess i can ask this.Attached is a 15 minutes chart of GBP/JPY. I see a head and shoulders formation.
if it clears 144.50 as the neckline then price should go up more than 200pips( judging from distance b/w head and neckline.) at least that is what i was taught in basic chart formations.
1.) fundamentally, can the USD go any higher to drive this pair that up?
2.) is this a valid pattern or am i just seeing what i want to see?
current price is 144.21. so saxon,...
Saxon knows more than I but be mindful of the daily chart on this pair. It seems that price is running into a resistance zone. There was a buy signal off the close of yesterdays daily close but I cannot say with certainty if it can continue up. Just my thoughts.
  • #407
  • Apr 14, 2010 8:06am Apr 14, 2010 8:06am
Anyone notice usd/cad is the only one rising after the news??
Aud experiencing a lagging effect?
  • #408
  • Apr 14, 2010 8:15am Apr 14, 2010 8:15am
Quoting GoldenGold
Anyone notice usd/cad is the only one rising after the news??
Aud experiencing a lagging effect?
maybe something to do with triple wednesday, not sure
  • #409
  • Apr 14, 2010 8:16am Apr 14, 2010 8:16am
Anyone watching the yen crosses? We are at resistance levels.
  • #410
  • Apr 14, 2010 8:29am Apr 14, 2010 8:29am
Could be wrong but the way this candle is setting up looks good for a short.
Attached Image
  • #411
  • Apr 14, 2010 8:34am Apr 14, 2010 8:34am
Quoting AnonymousX
Could be wrong but the way this candle is setting up looks good for a short.
My broker time is a little different than yours but I am watching this pair for a short too. There is a correlation between cad and aud, I expect cad to bounce up and aud to sell off. Aud is at a level so.....
  • #412
  • Apr 14, 2010 8:58am Apr 14, 2010 8:58am
i see narrowing wedge for a/u, she's gotta decide soon
although it's an ascending triangle pending breakout top, i am getting also few short signals, not too sure right now, let the PA decide, it always does
  • #413
  • Apr 14, 2010 10:55am Apr 14, 2010 10:55am
broke out, another wedge forming at 9358
just realised usd index took a dive maybe wait for it to bottom for a good scalp long
  • #414
  • Apr 14, 2010 11:04am Apr 14, 2010 11:04am
another note on e/u, adopting saxon's terminology the "00" level 1.3600 have been good bounces
  • #415
  • Apr 14, 2010 11:49am Apr 14, 2010 11:49am
Quoting OvT
another note on e/u, adopting saxon's terminology the "00" level 1.3600 have been good bounces
i favor buying usd/chf at 1.05 the "00" level targeting 250 pips.
  • #416
  • Apr 14, 2010 4:22pm Apr 14, 2010 4:22pm
I was out for a bit. So just taking a look at those setups in retro -

UJ did take that bounce, but you needed wide stops to be able to take the drop down since there was a little volatility. About a 13 pip violation

UCAD took a small bounce where it was expected, but was driven down lower. I only stayed in this position for a little while and got my stop to BE luckly.

I am still out of UCHF due to the gap, ~1.05063 is showing nice S/R but due to the two quick tests of it on H1 might invalidate. I like a large swing to a test of a S/R to feel confident.

I have similar feelings with EU with ~1.35931 as S/R, however, that S/R has been mucked around a little too much for me to base any trade on it.

I will get some setups in the works and posted soon. I also saw that there was a question about GJ a page or so back. I will get working on answering that question too but I see that Calderone might have already shed some light on it. Will get back soon though. Good luck with the trades!!!
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  • #417
  • Apr 14, 2010 5:31pm Apr 14, 2010 5:31pm
Quoting OvT
another note on e/u, adopting saxon's terminology the "00" level 1.3600 have been good bounces
I know you probably already know this OvT, but if there is anyone new out there I'll try to explain it.

"00"s "roundies", etc... They work well to either bounce the price or accelerate it. There are a lot fo theories out there as to why PA gets somtimes accelerated. Either way, "00"s are good prices to keep an eye on.

Here are a few websites I found that talk more about it. If I was more eloquent in speech I would try to explain it, but I would probably confuse more than help.

http://ezinearticles.com/?Forex-Trad...ers&id=1851400

http://www.theforexvillage.com/index...d-numbers.html

http://www.fxsuperb.com/rounded-numb...-forex-market/

http://www.elertgadget.com/palert/fo..._off_38269.htm

here is a thread someone started about it I think

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=163001

You can think of round numbers role in your every day life, like, if you paid 18.50 on some gasoline, you would probably round to 20 or so. When at the desks, large block or many lot orders are placed at these levels. See, I probably confused more than helped.
  • #418
  • Apr 14, 2010 5:45pm Apr 14, 2010 5:45pm
Hello everyone. Haven't traded but twice this week. The wife took a week vacation. Don't think I need to explain the rest.

The shorting opportunity on A/U to 9300 may be upon us within the hour. H4 is overbought...H1 is forming a nice candle and M15 has an almost 21 and 35 MA crossover. 9300 because we are still in an uptrend and there is strong MA support around there.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #419
  • Apr 14, 2010 5:53pm Apr 14, 2010 5:53pm
Quoting Clouds
i favor buying usd/chf at 1.05 the "00" level targeting 250 pips.
Ya, 1.05 is holding well. We'll see what London does to it. UJ and AU are on my radar right now. Also, disregard all the junk at the bottom of my charts too.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #420
  • Apr 14, 2010 5:55pm Apr 14, 2010 5:55pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Hello everyone. Haven't traded but twice this week. The wife took a week vacation. Don't think I need to explain the rest.

The shorting opportunity on A/U to 9300 may be upon us within the hour. H4 is overbought...H1 is forming a nice candle and M15 has an almost 21 and 35 MA crossover. 9300 because we are still in an uptrend and there is strong MA support around there.

That's where you've been then. Gotta keep the wife happy
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