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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #1,861
  • Apr 14, 2010 5:09am Apr 14, 2010 5:09am
Quoting aghast
hello guys,

you've got a very interesting discussion here. i'm very interested in the COT index because it can be used as a NYSE openbook for the currencies compared to the stocks, even with the 3 days delay.

so to speak, you use it to see where they are predominantly adding positions /to be on the right side of the market/. this is very helpful and I can use it to be more sure of what I see on the charts, especially when going for the dips or the false rallies to support a trend.

by looking at the last CFTC report, it shows that the large non-commercial...
hello aghast,
welcome to this thread, you have your point of buying dip on A/U, and considering crowd in your side it has been a profitable model over past weeks,and if you look at long term it has been good investment over last year- but COT index cant remain extreme without a correction , but the timing is not easy
  • #1,862
  • Apr 14, 2010 5:20am Apr 14, 2010 5:20am
  •  aghast
  • | Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Fixed Income & Currencies Trader | 58 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
hello aghast,
welcome to this thread, you have your point of buying dip on A/U, and considering crowd in your side it has been a profitable model over past weeks,and if you look at long term it has been good investment over last year- but COT index cant remain extreme without a correction , but the timing is not easy
thanks for the warm welcome shahab8b. the chart I posted - aud/chf - as the example uses the EW count for entry. i also saw that the COT positions also coincided with the chart and I was happy to add a long position on the break of the resistance. now only time will tell whether I'll be right and how the price will develop. btw you have an impressive winning ratio in the beginning of the trade. 5000+ pips is no small achievement. are you always considering COT in your trades?
Fortune always favors the brave.
  • #1,863
  • Apr 14, 2010 5:30am Apr 14, 2010 5:30am
The retail trader is back in force selling A/U Risk is on with Intel reporting fab earnings. Got JP Morgan soon.

SSI: AUDUSD Shorts Jump 28% as Retail Bears Sell Into Two-Day Rally
Wednesday, 14 Apr 2010 10:10 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, DailyFX Research

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

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Intraday Highlight:

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.56 as nearly 61% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.17 as 54% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 4.0% lower than yesterday and 2.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 27.8% higher than yesterday and 7.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 13.1% stronger than yesterday and 8.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.42 as nearly 59% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.02 as 50% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 28.4% lower than yesterday and 33.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.7% higher than yesterday and 13.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 12.5% weaker than yesterday and 11.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.41 as nearly 58% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.27 as 56% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 6.1% lower than yesterday and 0.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.9% higher than yesterday and 6.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.5% weaker than yesterday and 5.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.26 as nearly 56% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.18 as 54% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 4.4% lower than yesterday and 17.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.5% higher than yesterday and 4.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.7% weaker than yesterday and 7.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.37 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.41 as 59% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.7% higher than yesterday and 2.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.7% higher than yesterday and 0.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.0% stronger than yesterday and 1.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 4.46 as nearly 82% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.16 as 81% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.5% higher than yesterday and 13.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.2% higher than yesterday and 21.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 6.1% stronger than yesterday and 16.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.83 as nearly 74% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.77 as 73% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.0% lower than yesterday and 41.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.1% lower than yesterday and 50.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.5% weaker than yesterday and 26.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.28 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.09 as 52% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 14.6% higher than yesterday and 24.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.5% lower than yesterday and 19.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 6.4% stronger than yesterday and 5.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Market_Strategy_Daily_14_Apr_2010.pdf   138 KB | 366 downloads
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,864
  • Apr 14, 2010 5:35am Apr 14, 2010 5:35am
short A/U .9325 SL=10 pips
based on #1840
  • #1,865
  • Apr 14, 2010 5:39am Apr 14, 2010 5:39am
long scalping E/U till 1.3636 then short
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  • #1,866
  • Apr 14, 2010 5:46am Apr 14, 2010 5:46am
Quoting shahab8b
long scalping E/U till 1.3636 then short
exit long -10
  • #1,867
  • Apr 14, 2010 6:01am Apr 14, 2010 6:01am
Quoting aghast
thanks for the warm welcome shahab8b. the chart I posted - aud/chf - as the example uses the EW count for entry. i also saw that the COT positions also coincided with the chart and I was happy to add a long position on the break of the resistance. now only time will tell whether I'll be right and how the price will develop. btw you have an impressive winning ratio in the beginning of the trade. 5000+ pips is no small achievement. are you always considering COT in your trades?

thank you for your comment, as I mentioned in the first page I try to use COT as my set up then enter & exit technically
  • #1,868
  • Apr 14, 2010 6:06am Apr 14, 2010 6:06am
Quoting Patience
The retail trader is back in force selling A/U Risk is on with Intel reporting fab earnings. Got JP Morgan soon.

SSI: AUDUSD Shorts Jump 28% as Retail Bears Sell Into Two-Day Rally
Wednesday, 14 Apr 2010 10:10 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, DailyFX Research

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

Attachment
Attachment

Intraday Highlight:

AUDUSD[font=Arial] - The...
we better listen to SSI this time, I exited short A/U with -3 pips, since yesterday I couldn't get them right,I'm taking a break for a while
  • #1,869
  • Apr 14, 2010 6:07am Apr 14, 2010 6:07am
JP Morgan earnings above expectations. Good for risk. Nothing much has changed with USDX 4 Hour chart. The US$ is just floundering. There is hidden bullish divergence but it's barely discernible on the RSI so I haven't marked it up.

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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,870
  • Apr 14, 2010 6:11am Apr 14, 2010 6:11am
what do you think about EU? i think the eu will go to bearish again.
  • #1,871
  • Apr 14, 2010 6:11am Apr 14, 2010 6:11am
Quoting shahab8b
we better listen to SSI this time, I exited short A/U with -3 pips, since yesterday I couldn't get them right,I'm taking a break for a while
I have so given up trying to short this thing. It's not worth the pain. Just scalping long A/J's - I feel way more comfortable going long this pair than A/U for some reason.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,872
  • Apr 14, 2010 6:13am Apr 14, 2010 6:13am
ok, a coffee would be good, now back to E/U long at 1.3600 SL=15
this one is good, will post the chart
  • #1,873
  • Apr 14, 2010 6:22am Apr 14, 2010 6:22am
E/U
long 1.3600 sl=15
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  • #1,874
  • Apr 14, 2010 6:25am Apr 14, 2010 6:25am
Quoting shahab8b
E/U
long 1.3600 sl=15
the trade has been taken at 1.3600 sl=15 risk 1%
  • #1,875
  • Edited 6:43am Apr 14, 2010 6:28am | Edited 6:43am
Quoting Patience
The retail trader is back in force selling A/U Risk is on with Intel reporting fab earnings. Got JP Morgan soon.

SSI: AUDUSD Shorts Jump 28% as Retail Bears Sell Into Two-Day Rally
Oh gawd.. just when i thought i had finally got in front of the curve
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
party is over for OZ for now. Expected further tightening which drove price to the current level is now of the table in light of continuing bad news across the board and loan approvals today. i would be very surprised if the london guys dont take this down at least 100 pips in todays session but i think the rest of the market will be just that - surprised and caught long with there pants down.
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #1,876
  • Apr 14, 2010 6:28am Apr 14, 2010 6:28am
Quoting shahab8b
E/U
long 1.3600 sl=15
that's what I'm talking about
  • #1,877
  • Apr 14, 2010 6:30am Apr 14, 2010 6:30am
Quoting shahab8b
E/U
long 1.3600 sl=15
who did take it?
  • #1,878
  • Apr 14, 2010 6:54am Apr 14, 2010 6:54am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
Oh gawd.. just when i thought i had finally got in front of the curve
lol - I know - shorting the A/U must be a bit like heroin - they just can't get enough of it. You can count me out though.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,879
  • Apr 14, 2010 6:55am Apr 14, 2010 6:55am
the news will be released in 35 min, I'll exit this E/U long before that, at first it was promising, but now back to entry , overall I prefer selling E/U so I wont hold it for a long time if it doesn't go my way
  • #1,880
  • Apr 14, 2010 7:00am Apr 14, 2010 7:00am
Quoting shahab8b
who did take it?
E/U's struggling a bit because of E/G.

I just went to put some unleaded petrol in my car (the cheaper unleaded) and it is now £1.18 per litre! When crude was at $140.00 a barrel I was paying £1.20. It's only at $84.00/$85.00 a barrel now. What on earth are they going to charge if it hits $140.00 a barrel again? I don't get it.
Nothing worth having is easy.
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