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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #1,841
  • Apr 13, 2010 8:31pm Apr 13, 2010 8:31pm
Quoting Sierra8561
.9308
did you close A/U or still in? if you didnt, keep it and SL as .93300
  • #1,842
  • Apr 13, 2010 10:17pm Apr 13, 2010 10:17pm
Quoting shahab8b
did you close A/U or still in? if you didnt, keep it and SL as .93300
I hit my stop
  • #1,843
  • Apr 13, 2010 10:29pm Apr 13, 2010 10:29pm
a/u bounced off broken tl , ej double top
  • #1,844
  • Apr 13, 2010 11:25pm Apr 13, 2010 11:25pm
guys i dont think it time to short au now looking at the weekly it is in an strong uptrend. its better to let the downtrend start and then ride it all the way down. i have tried to short this beast and it never worked. i know u all are good with ur technicals but the trend is up just follow it for now.

just my small advice. i did make a couple of pips riding it up to 93
  • #1,845
  • Apr 14, 2010 12:12am Apr 14, 2010 12:12am
Quoting shanem
guys i dont think it time to short au now looking at the weekly it is in an strong uptrend. its better to let the downtrend start and then ride it all the way down. i have tried to short this beast and it never worked. i know u all are good with ur technicals but the trend is up just follow it for now.
i agree with you ُShanem.
seems interesting pattern going to be formed.

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/0e...e577_thumb.gif

good luck
  • #1,846
  • Edited 6:44am Apr 14, 2010 12:16am | Edited 6:44am
Quoting shanem
guys i dont think it time to short au now looking at the weekly it is in an strong uptrend.

just my small advice. i did make a couple of pips riding it up to 93
I disagree - party is over for OZ for now. Expected further tightening which drove price to the current level is now of the table in light of continuing bad news across the board but particularly loan approvals today. i think Shah's abcd pattern will play out without any new highs from here. i would be very surprised if the london guys dont take this down at least 100 pips in todays session but i think the rest of the market will be just that - surprised and caught long with there pants down. just my small advice. i made a good few pips riding it to .93 also (+30) but I am not looking for any more longs today Price is currently testing the M4 pivot and if my fundamentals are correct, it does not belong anywhere near that level today. we shall see if the market agrees with me or not soon. its better to let the downtrend start and then ride it all the way down.
Quoting shanem
i have tried to short this beast and it never worked. i know u all are good with ur technicals but the trend is up just follow it for now.
this is good advice, your losses have taught you a wise lesson here. there is a bullish continuation pattern forming on the 15 minute so best watch this play out. if it fails i will sell a break lower pretty hard
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud4.png Size: 56 KB
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  • #1,847
  • Apr 14, 2010 12:26am Apr 14, 2010 12:26am
I think there will be one more higher high this week into 9409. I think a move down is much more probable next week.
  • #1,848
  • Apr 14, 2010 1:14am Apr 14, 2010 1:14am
euryen240
---------

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/u2...rdy6_thumb.gif

good luck
  • #1,849
  • Apr 14, 2010 1:19am Apr 14, 2010 1:19am
Failed pattern as predicted. i didnt wait and sold the M4 pivot touch
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud10.jpg Size: 81 KB
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  • #1,850
  • Apr 14, 2010 1:38am Apr 14, 2010 1:38am
Audyen 60

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/nl...u8gu_thumb.jpg

good luck
  • #1,851
  • Apr 14, 2010 1:58am Apr 14, 2010 1:58am
  •  aghast
  • | Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Fixed Income & Currencies Trader | 58 Posts
hello guys,

you've got a very interesting discussion here. i'm very interested in the COT index because it can be used as a NYSE openbook for the currencies compared to the stocks, even with the 3 days delay.

so to speak, you use it to see where they are predominantly adding positions /to be on the right side of the market/. this is very helpful and I can use it to be more sure of what I see on the charts, especially when going for the dips or the false rallies to support a trend.

by looking at the last CFTC report, it shows that the large non-commercial traders have added 4632 longs compared to only 504 shorts, so the net is a long positive gain in the AUD. i guess this means there will be support on any dips even with the COT index at almost extreme levels. i guess it can stay in the extremes for a while before it starts to retrace.

by judging the COT index I would say buy the dips in the AUD pairs with a reasonable risk-reward ratio. I'm adding a chart to show what I mean. AUD/CHF can be bottom picked, it has a reverse positive divergence and I expect it to start forming wave 5 in the small 4 hour chart. the initial target can be 100% FE, or 161.8& FE @ 1.0150.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: cot-aud.png Size: 46 KB
Fortune always favors the brave.
  • #1,852
  • Apr 14, 2010 2:05am Apr 14, 2010 2:05am
Quoting aghast

by looking at the last CFTC report, it shows that the large non-commercial traders have added 4632 longs compared to only 504 shorts, so the net is a long positive gain in the AUD. i guess this means there will be support on any dips even with the COT index at almost extreme levels. i guess it can stay in the extremes for a while before it starts to retrace.
look at your globex chart again. you can see that the market reacted pretty quickly to the extreme positioning. you might only have a few days or the long opportunities might already be over as i am suspecting
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  • #1,853
  • Apr 14, 2010 2:14am Apr 14, 2010 2:14am
hi MAC

is it because the position fell from 100 to 97.59 in COT means it less bullish ??
  • #1,854
  • Apr 14, 2010 2:17am Apr 14, 2010 2:17am
  •  aghast
  • | Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Fixed Income & Currencies Trader | 58 Posts
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
look at your globex chart again. you can see that the market reacted pretty quickly to the extreme positioning. you might only have a few days or the long opportunities might already be over as i am suspecting
has it? we'll have to wait a few days so the scenarios can play out. i was looking at the globex chart and i can see that the index has stayed at the extreme from around 90 to currently 93.6 and actually there were new highs and the index hasn't started to fall yet, that's why i wrote that it can take some time.
Fortune always favors the brave.
  • #1,855
  • Apr 14, 2010 2:25am Apr 14, 2010 2:25am
Quoting shahab8b
who is in short A/U at .9300-310? lets see if I got the pattern right
I think you have and AUDJPY is a bat.
  • #1,856
  • Apr 14, 2010 2:33am Apr 14, 2010 2:33am
Quoting shanem
hi MAC

is it because the position fell from 100 to 97.59 in COT means it less bullish ??
When positioning turns from 100 (extreme) to slightly less so it can signify a top or a bottom. The dailyFX cot reports have a good explanation of this with charts.
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technic...at_Record.html
  • #1,857
  • Edited 3:05am Apr 14, 2010 2:54am | Edited 3:05am
Quoting aghast
has it? we'll have to wait a few days so the scenarios can play out. i was looking at the globex chart and i can see that the index has stayed at the extreme from around 90 to currently 93.6 and actually there were new highs and the index hasn't started to fall yet, that's why i wrote that it can take some time.
absolutely, it can take a long time and sometimes it can fail to turn at all. Lately though the price has responded quite quickly as you will notice if you look at the past examples on your chart. It took 3 days after extreme positioning was recorded in EUR/USD for the price to tank 2000 pips from 1.51 to current levels and the aussie has responded in a similar time frame as seen in the past examples on your globex chart

Quoting shanem
hi MAC

is it because the position fell from 100 to 97.59 in COT means it less bullish ??
No. I am not experienced enough with cot to interpret that dip
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  • #1,858
  • Apr 14, 2010 4:30am Apr 14, 2010 4:30am
U/J
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  • #1,859
  • Apr 14, 2010 4:43am Apr 14, 2010 4:43am
E/U as expected , well what to say
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,860
  • Apr 14, 2010 5:03am Apr 14, 2010 5:03am
Quoting shanem
hi MAC

is it because the position fell from 100 to 97.59 in COT means it less bullish ??

A/U : COT net positioning is long/ it means the trend is up (for instance hedge fund model buys dip on A/U)
COT index (13 weeks) is bullish extreme it means it's time for a correction,for the timing of a counter trend trade you need to use some technical.
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