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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #60,761
  • Apr 13, 2010 11:30am Apr 13, 2010 11:30am
Hi all,

Anyone watching AUD/USD to see if it turns into a pinbar to go long if it significantly breaks 0.9300?
Anything can happen.
  • #60,762
  • Edited 11:56am Apr 13, 2010 11:39am | Edited 11:56am
Quoting bertie123
Hi guys

can anyone explain why we got all these gaps in the last few days and is anyone trading them? Are these gaps a good opportunity?
The forex market is open 24/7 but our brokers are close dover the weekend. That means any weekend trading that affects price (sometimes reactions to news, sometimes not) will be reflected in an opening gap. That shows up on everyone's charts and because gaps almost always close, everyone is suddenly looking for the gap close.

I play them similar to Mike. They often run far the other way before closing so I try not to sit there with a mammoth drawdown. I open a small exploratory position and then use the gap for information. I'll either use it as a support resistance level (gaps sometimes close then turn around and head back the other way) or sometimes if I get solid price action pointing towards the gap then I Know we're headed into the gap and I can hold longer.

It's really a very discretionary process and I think a little more complicated than "see the gap, open 1% position to close" because that often leaves you sweating some drawdown. The bigger gaps tend to stay open a little bit longer too in my experience.

I am digging into my archives to find an old trade I took to illustrate my point. See the pinbar off the 7500 level on this NU. And see how the trade had an obvious target, the gap close, which it reached. Sometimes it pays to not open a position on Sunday night and wait to see a signal that the gap is about to close.

You can also scale in and scale out as Mike does, you certainly don't have to wait for full gap close.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NU_4H.png Size: 65 KB
  • #60,763
  • Apr 13, 2010 12:01pm Apr 13, 2010 12:01pm
this was pretty obviously going to happen
Attached Image
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #60,764
  • Apr 13, 2010 12:34pm Apr 13, 2010 12:34pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
this was pretty obviously going to happen

Dan,
Have a look at the weekly.
Pin going short.
I am so out of date that I have not yet caught the Millennium Bug.
  • #60,765
  • Apr 13, 2010 2:07pm Apr 13, 2010 2:07pm
Anyone looking at the AUD/JPY pin forming? just bounced off BRN, bit of traffic over the last few days but begfore that lots of space and FTA at around 86.80

Maybe good for a 35 pip scalp from 86.55->86.80?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy.gif Size: 17 KB
Anything can happen.
  • #60,766
  • Apr 13, 2010 2:31pm Apr 13, 2010 2:31pm
Quoting ddinnov
Anyone looking at the AUD/JPY pin forming? just bounced off BRN, bit of traffic over the last few days but begfore that lots of space and FTA at around 86.80

Maybe good for a 35 pip scalp from 86.55->86.80?
Hey D

Someone just asked me about this one in a PM

Hey A

. This pin is at a very high swing high so without that deep retracement that means were trading right into trouble. Overall it is the 87 round number but we have to watch that previous high around 86.80. Not a trade to get to fancy on it if you decide to take it. Not one I would pull the trigger on personally as there isn't much to go on.

Hope that helps
Mike
  • #60,767
  • Apr 13, 2010 2:42pm Apr 13, 2010 2:42pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
this was pretty obviously going to happen
Hi Dan,

Are you saying that this looks a good set-up? To me it does if the PB holds. Bouncing off BRN and a monthly pivot.
"Fail to prepare, prepare to fail."
  • #60,768
  • Apr 13, 2010 2:45pm Apr 13, 2010 2:45pm
Quoting packhorse
Hi Dan,

Are you saying that this looks a good set-up? To me it does if the PB holds. Bouncing off BRN and a monthly pivot.
something like this pack?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #60,769
  • Apr 13, 2010 2:58pm Apr 13, 2010 2:58pm
Hell Mike,

I am looking at the AUDNZD daily pin, looks like it is tradable.

However, the there is a huge weekly pin on top.

I am wondering is it better to stay away on trading this pin if there is higher timeframe PA will overrule easily. Even the Daily Pinbar is follow the trend?

What do you think about this daily pin?

Thanks!

PM
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd weekly.jpg Size: 96 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd daily.jpg Size: 109 KB
  • #60,770
  • Apr 13, 2010 2:58pm Apr 13, 2010 2:58pm
Quoting packhorse
Hi Dan,

Are you saying that this looks a good set-up? To me it does if the PB holds. Bouncing off BRN and a monthly pivot.
pin bar, BUOB, it's all good
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #60,771
  • Apr 13, 2010 3:25pm Apr 13, 2010 3:25pm
Still in the EURUSD trade at -43.10 pips.

I was a bad trader today, kept hitting snooze on the alarm and slept while I should have been moving my stop to BE.
  • #60,772
  • Apr 13, 2010 3:31pm Apr 13, 2010 3:31pm
Quoting PippingMama
Hell Mike,

I am looking at the AUDNZD daily pin, looks like it is tradable.

However, the there is a huge weekly pin on top.

I am wondering is it better to stay away on trading this pin if there is higher timeframe PA will overrule easily. Even the Daily Pinbar is follow the trend?

What do you think about this daily pin?

Thanks!

PM
Hey PM

for me the breakdown would be weekly pin didn't close strong below 1.3 and has already hit first trouble area(so some might have taken from that), now daily is a small pin at a small retrace(ie in traffic) and could be fine with a tight mgmt. Again size is a pretty big factor for me so this is a pass, into 1.31 seems very likely on a break(around 1.3080)

Hope that helps
mike
  • #60,773
  • Apr 13, 2010 3:33pm Apr 13, 2010 3:33pm
Possible Pin (Bar hasnt closed yet)

If it closes as a pin, theres 2 supporting areas of 23.6 fibs and 1 supporting area at a 38.2 fib for recent swings. Also, it would be supported by 93.00.

It will hit some possible resistance a few areas soon after though at 93.80. The 365 EMA, a minor swing high that was previously a major swing high in January. Then of course the newest swing high at 94.70.

Its also not exactly at a nice swing low, its a retracement.

Any other opinions?

(Edit, also.. You would need to remove the last 2 days and use the 04/08/2010 bar as the first eye)
Attached Image
  • #60,774
  • Apr 13, 2010 3:53pm Apr 13, 2010 3:53pm
Quoting chartergas

attached is set up i took and mismanaged!! as you can see it took off!!!
Hi Chartergas, welcome to the thread! Please be careful trading 15 minute charts, it seems easy at first but they will eat you alive if you don't know what you are doing. I would definitely start by reading the first post of the thread, and take your time, everything you need to trade successfully is here. In fact, the PF can be overwhelming if you jump in to early, so make sure you have a good understanding of all of the basics first.

The first post has a lot of great advice, if you want to speed up your learning curve trust that James16 knows what he is talking about and begin on higher timeframes, on a demo account of course

Good luck, and welcome!

Cory
  • #60,775
  • Apr 13, 2010 4:02pm Apr 13, 2010 4:02pm
Quoting Delfino
Possible Pin (Bar hasnt closed yet)

If it closes as a pin, theres 2 supporting areas of 23.6 fibs and 1 supporting area at a 38.2 fib for recent swings. Also, it would be supported by 93.00.

It will hit some possible resistance a few areas soon after though at 93.80. The 365 EMA, a minor swing high that was previously a major swing high in January. Then of course the newest swing high at 94.70.

Its also not exactly at a nice swing low, its a retracement.

Any other opinions?

(Edit, also.. You would need to remove the last 2 days and use...
I'm watching this as well and contemplating a long from perhaps 93.65 with the SL below todays low.

Worth noticing also that last 24H shows a double bottom-like structure on the 1H
  • #60,776
  • Apr 13, 2010 8:17pm Apr 13, 2010 8:17pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
and an 8 pip spread,

Quoting mbqb11
whoa Joel, we gotta talk about where you are trading!
Here guys, you can attach this to Any Pair, Any Timeframe. {The Text one on the Chart. Not the indi. in lower subframe.}

I like to compare the "Entry Cost" between EURGBP ($40.00 to get in and 3 Pips from B.E.) & GBPNZD.($80.00 to get in and 11 Pips from B.E.)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp bemac pip value.gif Size: 25 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzd bemac pip value.gif Size: 18 KB


Which do you think is the better deal?

Contrary to Popular belief, if you look across the board, a Pip is not commonly worth $10.00

Add that to the Current Spread & it may just assist you in deciding whether to Enter (or even exit) a Trade.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Bemac Pip Value.ex4   5 KB | 513 downloads
  • #60,777
  • Apr 13, 2010 8:26pm Apr 13, 2010 8:26pm
Quoting Bemac
Quote:...

good stuff B and not to mention often spread size is relative to the range a pair tends to move as well. Important stuff here... thanks B

Mike
  • #60,778
  • Apr 13, 2010 8:36pm Apr 13, 2010 8:36pm
Quoting mbqb11
good stuff B and not to mention often spread size is relative to the range a pair tends to move as well. Important stuff here... thanks B

Mike
Thanks Mike and if you do look at the Ind in the Lower Subframe, you might notice that the GBPNZD hit a 25.2 Pip Spread Yesterday.
That's a $180.00 Entry Cost
  • #60,779
  • Apr 13, 2010 9:13pm Apr 13, 2010 9:13pm
Quoting Bemac
Here guys, you can attach this to Any Pair, Any Timeframe. {The Text one on the Chart. Not the indi. in lower subframe.}
Thanks Bemac, that's really cool. I always do these calcs by hand in my journal before each trade, just to decide whether the EV is good enough for me to trade, and its kind of a pain to be honest.

Quoting Bemac
Contrary to Popular belief, if you look across the board, a Pip is not commonly worth $10.00
People forget that currencies are pairs, and pairs are not always USD short
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #60,780
  • Apr 13, 2010 9:28pm Apr 13, 2010 9:28pm
Quoting jarroo
In my book, it is technically an IB so structurally it is not correct but I don't think that would be a trader breaker, because its a double High.

Locationally it is perfect right where its at, a strong Daily/Weekly PPZ level. But with all PA setups, I like to know what is going on on the Higher Time Frames and the weekly is showing a bullish PB. So that would weight heavy on my mind.

The thing is . . .they can both (the Daily bearish IPB and the Weekly bullish PB) work out just fine. I would favor more so the weekly PB. Should be fun to see...

Hello Jarroo,

I have a question regarding the moving averages as resistance. It is about taking the weekly PB on the EG. If we buy a above the weekly pb high. However, on daily TF, there are 2 moving averages hovering right above the weekly high.

Do you consider this will be the big concern for taking this trade regarding trouble area? Also there is some weekly bar low there too.

Thanks!

PM
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eg weekly.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eg daily.gif Size: 31 KB
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