Attachments: Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

#1,801
Apr 13, 2010 9:09am Apr 13, 2010 9:09am

shahab8b
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts

Quoting Patience

Disliked

We gonna have hidden bullish divergence on 4 hour USDX - for those not sure what that means - it's lower low on RSI indicator and higher low on price. Well missed that while I was typing. Gold is tanking as well.

Ignored

gold may be

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: gold4.gif
Size: 22 KB

#1,802
Apr 13, 2010 9:15am Apr 13, 2010 9:15am

puks
| Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Trader | 902 Posts

It is the same chart that I posted a few pages ago using Bollinger Bands. Daily close are still within the range of "Sell-zone" as described by Kathy Lien using Bollinger Bands.

Also trading fundamentals - kind of swing trade. 1:1 RRR. with 200 pip stop and 250 pip .

That's the reason I am trying it in DEMO account to see if this strategy works.

Nothing else - I dont want to pollute your thread mate.

Quoting shahab8b

Disliked

what's the point of that, at least post a chart and tell us what's the reason of that short U/Cad trade.

Ignored

#1,803
Apr 13, 2010 9:17am Apr 13, 2010 9:17am

shahab8b
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts

Quoting Patience

Disliked

You're such a big time trader I'm lucky to earn 6% in a few months - ha, ha, ha ......

Ignored

that's a bit more than what I risk usually, I didnt like that E/U short Sl taken out earlier ,imo , this gap and gartely are pointing at 1.3500 , I wont give up on my opinion till I prove wrong, this time I'm more careful, SL>B/E at 1.3616

#1,804
Apr 13, 2010 9:22am Apr 13, 2010 9:22am

shahab8b
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts

Quoting puks

Disliked

It is the same chart that I posted a few pages ago using Bollinger Bands. Daily close are still within the range of "Sell-zone" as described by Kathy Lien using Bollinger Bands.

Also trading fundamentals - kind of swing trade. 1:1 RRR. with 200 pip stop and 250 pip .

That's the reason I am trying it in DEMO account to see if this strategy works.

Nothing else - I dont want to pollute your thread mate.

Ignored

don't look at that this way buddy, my bad , now I'm looking at your previous post regarding that.
as I said I'd like that you make the trades based on sound analysis ,it's not important whether you are trading on demo or real , so keep posting your ideas and trade calls so we can analysis and use them as well.

#1,805
Apr 13, 2010 9:24am Apr 13, 2010 9:24am

Patience
Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 7,219 Posts

Quoting shahab8b

Disliked

that's a bit more than what I risk usually, I didnt like that E/U short Sl taken out earlier ,imo , this gap and gartely are pointing at 1.3500 , I wont give up on my opinion till I prove wrong, this time I'm more careful, SL>B/E at 1.3616

Ignored

Looking good. Scrub that hidden bullish divergence, now that it's bounced, so has RSI. I should have waited before saying that. If 1.3691 was indeed the high then minus AWR @ 290 (last 26 weeks) then 1.3400 looks good to go. All depends on earnings coming out as well I suppose. Here's a website that I use to check what companies are announcing their earnings

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralConte...px?PageId=3272

Catcha later. Better go and be constructive ...

Nothing worth having is easy.

#1,806
Apr 13, 2010 9:31am Apr 13, 2010 9:31am

shahab8b
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts

E/U first target 1.3543 6% profit 2nd target (1.351) would be 10%.
this pair has given me a hard time

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: eu4e.gif
Size: 20 KB

#1,807
Apr 13, 2010 9:37am Apr 13, 2010 9:37am

shahab8b
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts

Quoting puks

Disliked

It is the same chart that I posted a few pages ago using Bollinger Bands. Daily close are still within the range of "Sell-zone" as described by Kathy Lien using Bollinger Bands.

Also trading fundamentals - kind of swing trade. 1:1 RRR. with 200 pip stop and 250 pip .

That's the reason I am trying it in DEMO account to see if this strategy works.

Nothing else - I dont want to pollute your thread mate.

Ignored

my view

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: ucad4.gif
Size: 15 KB

#1,808
Apr 13, 2010 11:40am Apr 13, 2010 11:40am

coolshades
| Joined Nov 2006 | Status: very junior member | 1,576 Posts

i am confused by the AUD sentiment and Patience's sentence in bold (if that sentence is by Patience). that bold sentence contradicts the AUD sentiment doesnt it?

Quoting shahab8b

Disliked

G'day patience, thanx for SSI report. interesting report, particularly regarding E/U.I'm short E/U at different levels and my target is 1.3510 then 1.3480

Ignored

#1,809
Apr 13, 2010 11:44am Apr 13, 2010 11:44am

shahab8b
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts

Quoting coolshades

Disliked

i am confused by the AUD sentiment and Patience's sentence in bold (if that sentence is by Patience). that bold sentence contradicts the AUD sentiment doesnt it?

Ignored

Long/Short ratio in A/U is -1.01 , almost flat, it's not important imo.

#1,810
Apr 13, 2010 11:55am Apr 13, 2010 11:55am

mmccormac
| Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Don't Plunge | 873 Posts

I just added a short on the pullback to this lower time frame trend line... Price also below that larger time frame 50% and failed at the larger time frame 61.8%. This can be played with a tight stop given the Fib so the RRR is good.

Below I've got the daily with the 61.8% failure and the shorter time frame for my new entry.

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: nzd-d.gif
Size: 44 KB

Click to Enlarge

Name: nzd-t.gif
Size: 43 KB

#1,811
Apr 13, 2010 1:50pm Apr 13, 2010 1:50pm

Tuner
| Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts

Quoting shahab8b

Disliked

Long/Short ratio in A/U is -1.01 , almost flat, it's not important imo.

Ignored

Hey there Shahab,

That's what I am as well at the moment.. flat

Didn't jump on any train yet. Had a look at the chart now trying to understand what is going on.
smaller timeframe it looks like a real rollercoaster.(as most of the pairs today)
Zooming out to the daily chart it looks the following to me:

-Former Resistance around .9250 didn't provide a strong support today
(bounced with some slippage first but we had a H4 close below that levels then)

- The area where we finally bounced a lot harder then (around .9220) seems like a retest of the former broken UTL (of the downtrend on daily) to me.

- Looking at that daily candle today (not finished yet) makes me also cautious for the moment.

--> Looking for a longer term down-move I'd like to see this UTL (light blue) broken or even the LTL (violet).
As I said yesterday I might "miss" the first some hundred pips of the move down. But there is much room down after that I think.

Don't know if this makes sense....just my thoughts

-Tuner-

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: aud_usd_daily.gif
Size: 19 KB

"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"

#1,812
Apr 13, 2010 2:38pm Apr 13, 2010 2:38pm

shahab8b
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts

let's see if S at 1.05260 can hold up one more time

U/Chf: long at 1.0540-45 has been taken , SL=1.0520 TP=10650 RRR :1:5

if the price touches S at 1.05260 again we may see a classic bullish divergence

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: uchf3b.gif
Size: 18 KB

#1,813
Apr 13, 2010 2:43pm Apr 13, 2010 2:43pm

shahab8b
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts

Quoting mmccormac

Disliked

I just added a short on the pullback to this lower time frame trend line... Price also below that larger time frame 50% and failed at the larger time frame 61.8%. This can be played with a tight stop given the Fib so the RRR is good.

Below I've got the daily with the 61.8% failure and the shorter time frame for my new entry.

Ignored

hi mmccormac, nice call