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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #1,781
  • Apr 13, 2010 5:50am Apr 13, 2010 5:50am
Quoting amyc
I have just brought eu off 1.3560, I think it will head up into 1.38 before making new lows. 20 pip stop.
what's the reason for that?
  • #1,782
  • Apr 13, 2010 5:57am Apr 13, 2010 5:57am
Quoting puks
I have decided to ignore everything except major S/R levels in AUD and I have decided to trade AUD purely based on fundamentals.

I have started building my AUD longs in extremely small lots - micro sizes and will keep building them all the way down to 90 (Increment of 75 pips) for an eventual target of 96 cents.

Plenty of opportunity to trade in other pairs and it looks EURCAD has a gap to be filled which will happen at some stage today after a stronger CAD data.

Cheers
Hey mate, there are different ways to approach the market and be profitable so stick to your plan and do a sound risk management.
as G.Soros says:"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong."
  • #1,783
  • Apr 13, 2010 6:08am Apr 13, 2010 6:08am
Quoting puks
I have decided to ignore everything except major S/R levels in AUD and I have decided to trade AUD purely based on fundamentals.

I have started building my AUD longs in extremely small lots - micro sizes and will keep building them all the way down to 90 (Increment of 75 pips) for an eventual target of 96 cents.

Plenty of opportunity to trade in other pairs and it looks EURCAD has a gap to be filled which will happen at some stage today after a stronger CAD data.

Cheers
If you are looking for gaps, why not going short E/U? as you are taking long A/U , shorting E/U will decrease your overall risk
  • #1,784
  • Apr 13, 2010 6:09am Apr 13, 2010 6:09am
Quoting shahab8b
what's the reason for that?
Incomplete chart patterns, after the breakout in Sundays highs price will continue up after retesting the break, dailys indicate 1.38 should cap the move.

The daily and weekly chart indicated 1.38 as soon as price opened on Sunday, the chart below just reinforces the view.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.GIF Size: 16 KB
  • #1,785
  • Apr 13, 2010 6:10am Apr 13, 2010 6:10am
Quoting amyc
Incomplete chart patterns, after the breakout in Sundays highs price will continue up after retesting the break, dailys indicate 1.38 should cap the move.
I got it, thanx for the chart.
  • #1,786
  • Apr 13, 2010 6:44am Apr 13, 2010 6:44am
Quoting shanem
hi shahab8b,

i did post regarding my trading experience dont know why it did not appear. Anyway trading since may 09 started with shares moved to cfd then fx which took allmy money i traded only au and every time i thought i was right the trend reversed and took my money. no specific trading style just was using variuos indicators but all failed one after the other.

am confused and dont know which is the right way before i loose my remaining 2 k too.

Shanem, you need to come up with a trading method and discipline yourself to follow it. I suggest you to use S/R and pivot point + fib level and my favorite one S turned R and visa versa, use RSI to locate Divergence.

the point is dont think much of which way is right, you can make money even if you are trading counter-trend trade, the key points are "Entry level" and your Risk to Reward Ratio (RRR)

look at my E/U example in 1min chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu3g.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #1,787
  • Apr 13, 2010 6:48am Apr 13, 2010 6:48am
Quoting shahab8b
Shanem, you need to come up with a trading method and discipline yourself to follow it. I suggest you to use S/R and pivot point + fib level and my favorite one S turned R and visa versa, use RSI to locate Divergence.

the point is dont think much of which way is right, you can make money even if you are trading counter-trend trade, the key points are "Entry level" and your Risk to Reward Ratio (RRR)

look at my E/U example in 1min chart
I gave you a 1min example to see the result soon, if it fails it doesn't matter as far as you control your risk, most of these set ups are profitable.

the Keys are: the Probability of success in the trade and the Odds you are getting for that particular trade (RRR)
  • #1,788
  • Apr 13, 2010 7:05am Apr 13, 2010 7:05am
thanks mate, will be putting a trading style into practice and follow it with stops etc. my biggest disaster happened as i did not use stops expecting everything to reverse in my direction.

how do u find the EMA 8,21,125 crossover ?? 125 being the filter for long or shorts.
  • #1,789
  • Apr 13, 2010 7:10am Apr 13, 2010 7:10am
I am out of my AUD longs at BE.

Back to demo-trading for a change :-)



Quoting shahab8b
If you are looking for gaps, why not going short E/U? as you are taking long A/U , shorting E/U will decrease your overall risk
  • #1,790
  • Apr 13, 2010 7:23am Apr 13, 2010 7:23am
A/U
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au4b.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #1,791
  • Apr 13, 2010 8:32am Apr 13, 2010 8:32am
Quoting shahab8b
G'day patience, thanx for SSI report. interesting report, particularly regarding E/U.I'm short E/U at different levels and my target is 1.3510 then 1.3480
G'day Shahab

Mmmmm, I don't know how this is going to play out. The US$ is really struggling to bounce at the mo but you do have the gap on your side. Loonie can't break parity. Daily and weekly Jurik say up for EUR. I'm struggling to pick something to scalp.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx-4hour-13apr.jpg Size: 163 KB
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,792
  • Apr 13, 2010 8:33am Apr 13, 2010 8:33am
E/U short has been taken at daily pivot at 1.3616 SL=40 TP=1.3510
  • #1,793
  • Apr 13, 2010 8:41am Apr 13, 2010 8:41am
Quoting Patience
G'day Shahab

Mmmmm, I don't know how this is going to play out. The US$ is really struggling to bounce at the mo but you do have the gap on your side. Loonie can't break parity. Daily and weekly Jurik say up for EUR. I'm struggling to pick something to scalp.
my E/U short have been good and bad, earned couple of hundred pips on different positions (E/U short) earlier , then hesitate to close couple of new lots short from 1.3600-610 at 1.3560 and SL hit - that was like a disaster, instead of huge profit I ended up losing 2% of my equity ,
I'm shorting this pair again, hopefully this time will get it right (from 1.3616), this gap should fill sooner or later (it's better before taking out my SL again)
  • #1,794
  • Apr 13, 2010 8:52am Apr 13, 2010 8:52am
I am ALL IN. Make or break of my Account (Demo)

I just entered 50 Lots of short on USDCAD. S/L at 1.01 and TP at 0.98.
  • #1,795
  • Apr 13, 2010 8:56am Apr 13, 2010 8:56am
Quoting puks
I am ALL IN. Make or break of my Account (Demo)

I just entered 50 Lots of short on USDCAD. S/L at 1.01 and TP at 0.98.

what's the point of that, at least post a chart and tell us what's the reason of that short U/Cad trade.
  • #1,796
  • Apr 13, 2010 8:59am Apr 13, 2010 8:59am
Quoting Patience
G'day Shahab

Mmmmm, I don't know how this is going to play out. The US$ is really struggling to bounce at the mo but you do have the gap on your side. Loonie can't break parity. Daily and weekly Jurik say up for EUR. I'm struggling to pick something to scalp.
I agree E/U may go up midterm but for now ,I'm counting on the gap and my bearish gartley , why don't you scalp E/U short, that's fast and entertaining for the time being
  • #1,797
  • Apr 13, 2010 8:59am Apr 13, 2010 8:59am
Quoting shahab8b
my E/U short have been good and bad, earned couple of hundred pips on different positions (E/U short) earlier , then hesitate to close couple of new lots short from 1.3600-610 at 1.3560 and SL hit - that was like a disaster, instead of huge profit I ended up losing 2% of my equity ,
I'm shorting this pair again, hopefully this time will get it right (from 1.3616), this gap should fill sooner or later (it's better before taking out my SL again)
We gonna have hidden bullish divergence on 4 hour USDX - for those not sure what that means - it's lower low on RSI indicator and higher low on price. Well missed that while I was typing. Gold is tanking as well.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,798
  • Apr 13, 2010 9:03am Apr 13, 2010 9:03am
finally it's going my way, E/U short (from 1.3616, my total risk is 4%) if it gets to daily S at 1.3540 I will get 6% profit
  • #1,799
  • Apr 13, 2010 9:05am Apr 13, 2010 9:05am
this E/U pair has been a roller coaster lately
  • #1,800
  • Apr 13, 2010 9:09am Apr 13, 2010 9:09am
Quoting shahab8b
finally it's going my way, E/U short (from 1.3616, my total risk is 4%) if it gets to daily S at 1.3540 I will get 6% profit
You're such a big time trader I'm lucky to earn 6% in a few months - ha, ha, ha ......
Nothing worth having is easy.
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