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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #1,761
  • Apr 12, 2010 6:27pm Apr 12, 2010 6:27pm
Quoting shanem
my thoughts on au is that it will fall if it closes say close to 92 ot 922. wait for a move up to 93 or more to short it. i base this last weeks candlestick and this weeks candlestick put together which will give us a pinbar to move downwards.

any ideas on the above ??? maybe i am completely wrong as usual also.
Hi shanem, I replied to your first post here and I asked you let me know your experience and method of trading.
besides, it's better you post a chart to show us your thoughts so we can discuss it. , for instance I dont get what did you mean of combining weekly candlesticks and getting a pinbar.
  • #1,762
  • Apr 12, 2010 6:29pm Apr 12, 2010 6:29pm
Quoting hellopip
It is moving in an up channel. I am going to place limit sell starting at 38% and upto 50%. Stop goes behind 62%
Short at: 1.0097, 1.0115, 1.0130
SL: 1.0185
TP: 1.0020, .99, .98
good , you are taking 3 positions at least watch your risk (dont risk more than 5% overall)
  • #1,763
  • Apr 12, 2010 6:32pm Apr 12, 2010 6:32pm
Quoting amyc
For AU if 9283 resistance holds then it should be back down into around 9200. From there I will be looking at long opportunities up to 9409. Once it has reached there I would be tempted to call a top until probably Q3.
Hi amyc, did you buy this dip or not?
  • #1,764
  • Apr 12, 2010 6:38pm Apr 12, 2010 6:38pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi amyc, did you buy this dip or not?
No, Not yet, I am still holding some shorts with stops at 9290. Chart on left shows we may have hit the bottom but i think it should bounce down off 9283 and move down into the green lows shown in the RH chart. The move of green highs to green lows or vice versa is common early in the week. If it goes above 9283 then i will look for longs.
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  • #1,765
  • Apr 12, 2010 6:42pm Apr 12, 2010 6:42pm
Quoting shahab8b
good , you are taking 3 positions at least watch your risk (dont risk more than 5% overall)
Thanks Sahab for your comments. I trade pretty less and gets in with probably 5 positions and 2-3% not more.

If you see aud/usd daily, there is a classic bearish divergence with MACD. This is coming up again and again. The volume is also dropping as it moves ahead. I have a feeling that buyers are exhausted. Also the observation that, gu almost stood still and au dropped 100 pips is weird. My comment at this point is there is an anomaly in the market regarding aud/usd. There is a bounce from 38% fib, if it does not hold, I have a feeling that we are going down to the 9140, which is 62% and channel bottom. At this moment I am a watcher. Better safe than sorry.
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  • #1,766
  • Apr 12, 2010 8:51pm Apr 12, 2010 8:51pm
check out the videos here, good analysis of all majors + JPY crosses

http://www.learningmarkets.com/Forex...s-and-Reports/
  • #1,767
  • Apr 12, 2010 9:04pm Apr 12, 2010 9:04pm
U/Cad

R at 1.0105 is the key
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  • #1,768
  • Apr 12, 2010 9:52pm Apr 12, 2010 9:52pm
Quoting shahab8b
somehow you got it right, the point is to use COT to make a better decision about the direction of your trades, not just taking short/long looking at COT.Let me put it this way, I dont know if you are familiar with Elliot Wave, in EW we have impulsive waves and...
Thanks Shahab for the reply. I don't use Elliot Waves but I understand what you meant by the larger trend being up.

I went short at 93.5 and rode it down till 92.75, before going long again. Lets see how it goes.

Thanks for the help.
  • #1,769
  • Apr 13, 2010 3:08am Apr 13, 2010 3:08am
hi shahab8b,

i did post regarding my trading experience dont know why it did not appear. Anyway trading since may 09 started with shares moved to cfd then fx which took allmy money i traded only au and every time i thought i was right the trend reversed and took my money. no specific trading style just was using variuos indicators but all failed one after the other.

am confused and dont know which is the right way before i loose my remaining 2 k too.
  • #1,770
  • Apr 13, 2010 4:58am Apr 13, 2010 4:58am
SSI: Retail AUDUSD Bears Take Profit on the Pull Back From the Yearly High
Tuesday, 13 Apr 2010 09:36 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, DailyFX Research

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

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Intraday Highlight:

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.01 as nearly 50% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.32 as 57% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 9.3% higher than yesterday and 37.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 16.4% lower than yesterday and 24.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.3% weaker than yesterday and 3.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

BE CAREFUL WITH AUD LONGS AT THE MOMENT - SENTIMENT IS NO LONGER ON YOUR SIDE. RETAIL TRADERS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO THINK THIS IS A ONE WAY TICKET UP.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.14 as nearly 53% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.11 as 53% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.6% higher than yesterday and 10.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.6% lower than yesterday and 10.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.6% stronger than yesterday and 4.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.30 as nearly 57% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.31 as 57% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 4.7% higher than yesterday and 13.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.9% higher than yesterday and 3.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.3% stronger than yesterday and 10.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.13 as nearly 53% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.11 as 53% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 3.8% lower than yesterday and 0.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.6% lower than yesterday and 6.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.2% weaker than yesterday and 6.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.45 as nearly 59% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.41 as 59% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.9% lower than yesterday and 10.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.1% lower than yesterday and 24.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.8% weaker than yesterday and 0.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 3.40 as nearly 77% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.86 as 79% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 8.3% lower than yesterday and 14.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.2% higher than yesterday and 15.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.7% weaker than yesterday and 1.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.03 as nearly 67% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.99 as 67% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.4% lower than yesterday and 0.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.3% lower than yesterday and 20.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.0% weaker than yesterday and 35.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.14 as nearly 53% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.03 as 51% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 6.6% higher than yesterday and 1.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 9.2% lower than yesterday and 12.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.4% weaker than yesterday and 0.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,771
  • Apr 13, 2010 5:06am Apr 13, 2010 5:06am
Quoting shahab8b
A/U

I'm tempted to call it a top. we will see.

looking to sell against the top
It is looking that way. I longed at NY close at support but that didnt hold and i stopped out. It has failed to hold gains above .93 It is now trading below significant support creating dark cloud cover for candlestickers or bearish outside bar for bar charters on the daily chart. I am watching lower time frames for breakouts from consolidation but much like PUKS and shanem, i have some seriously burnt fingers from picking tops and shorting this pair. I really think this is it though, I think interest rate is close to target and there is nothing to drive price higher and it is time for USD to shine, at least for a while. Problem is, I really thought I was right all the other times too
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BTC Return This Year: na
  • #1,772
  • Edited 5:24am Apr 13, 2010 5:10am | Edited 5:24am
Quoting Patience
BE CAREFUL WITH AUD LONGS AT THE MOMENT - SENTIMENT IS NO LONGER ON YOUR SIDE. RETAIL TRADERS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO THINK THIS IS A ONE WAY TICKET UP.
SSI Details:
EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.14 as nearly 53% of traders are long. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

G'day patience, thanx for SSI report. interesting report, particularly regarding E/U.I'm short E/U at different levels and my target is 1.3510 then 1.3480
  • #1,773
  • Apr 13, 2010 5:17am Apr 13, 2010 5:17am
As per the daily chart in EURJPY, the bear flag has formed. The SMA crossover are also supporting this trade so as long as we stay below 128.50-70, the bear trend remain in place.

Shorting against 128 with S/L at Daily close above 129 and seems to be a good opportunity with target of 124 and then 121 and then test yearly low around 119.70.
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  • #1,774
  • Apr 13, 2010 5:22am Apr 13, 2010 5:22am
I have decided to ignore everything except major S/R levels in AUD and I have decided to trade AUD purely based on fundamentals.

I have started building my AUD longs in extremely small lots - micro sizes and will keep building them all the way down to 90 (Increment of 75 pips) for an eventual target of 96 cents.

Plenty of opportunity to trade in other pairs and it looks EURCAD has a gap to be filled which will happen at some stage today after a stronger CAD data.

Cheers



Quoting shahab8b
G'day patience, thanx for SSI report. interesting report, particular regarding E/U.I'm short E/U at different levels and my target is 1.3510 then 1.3480
  • #1,775
  • Apr 13, 2010 5:36am Apr 13, 2010 5:36am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
It is looking that way. I longed at NY close at support but that didnt hold and i stopped out. It has failed to hold gains above .93 It is now trading below significant support creating dark cloud cover for candlestickers or bearish outside bar for bar charters on the daily chart. I am watching lower time frames for breakouts from consolidation but much like PUKS and shanem, i have some seriously burnt fingers from picking tops and shorting this pair. I really think this is it though, I think interest rate is close to target and there...
G'day M.A.C.Doug, it seems to me it has topped,however as we all know this pair is tough to short. I think we may see some more confirmation soon
here is my thought :a bullish hidden div in 4H delays the immediate bearish bias.but a Head & Sh might be in progress.
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  • #1,776
  • Apr 13, 2010 5:39am Apr 13, 2010 5:39am
E/G

as expected
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  • #1,777
  • Apr 13, 2010 5:41am Apr 13, 2010 5:41am
Quoting shahab8b
G'day M.A.C.Doug, it seems to me it has topped,however as we all know this pair is tough to short. I think we may see some more confirmation soon
here is my thought :a bullish hidden div in 4H delays the immediate bearish bias.but a Head & Sh might be in progress.
Aud has bounced off daily lows to the pip at 9224 and has now had a 4 hr close at gmt+8 above 4hr PP, this is bullish and high probability it will continue up into Wednesdays highs and probably 94.
  • #1,778
  • Apr 13, 2010 5:42am Apr 13, 2010 5:42am
I'm selling E/U at rallies
  • #1,779
  • Apr 13, 2010 5:43am Apr 13, 2010 5:43am
Quoting amyc
Aud has bounced off daily lows to the pip at 9224 and has now had a 4 hr close at gmt+8 above 4hr PP, this is bullish and high probability it will continue up into Wednesdays highs and probably 94.
agree up to .9300 after that I need to see its PA at that level
  • #1,780
  • Apr 13, 2010 5:43am Apr 13, 2010 5:43am
Quoting shahab8b
I'm selling E/U at rallies
I have just brought eu off 1.3560, I think it will head up into 1.38 before making new lows. 20 pip stop.
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