DislikedPetra,
Since this is not a coin flip or a roulette wheel, winning X does not have to equate to losing X on a 50/50 basis. I give you an example:
One of my models has a pretty balanced win/loss ratio - i.e. over the course of a month, quarter and year, it comes to more or less 50% winning and 50% losing trades (1200 on avg per year). The model relies on a less frequent but reoccurring phenomenon which delivers days (not indiv. trades) with a 1:4 risk/reward ratio. Since I never really know when these days happen in advance, I had to create a...Ignored
Thank you for your candor. You have set forth parameters that more than overcome any negative expectancy. 1:4 Risk/Reward with a win ratio of anywhere near 50% is exciting. I cannot accuratley calcuate your positive expectancy without the exact pip loss and pip profit points--- but no matter. You have a winning edge. How much data do you have (live and backtest) to give you confidence? I would be happy to run any numbers for you. One number you might be intrested in is the longest string of losers you should expect over 100, 1000, and 10,000 trades. That way, when the bad steak happens, you will be able to withstand it with confidence, knowing it is just a statistical blip and there is no reason to question your system. Congratulations!
Regards,