USDCAD trend reversal?

Hi again,

I've been holding the GBP/USD long since last week. Been quite the rollercoaster past few days.

Led me to look again at the EURO/GBP. Took a short this morning on the short term retrace above the 88.00 level. Long term charts/Monthlies are showing a topping out on this pair with a lot of downside potential. Might be worth trading this pair from the short side for the next few months.

Ongoing soverign debt problems in Europe mainland coupled with the upcoming U.K. election just may produce a decent move. Possible recovery brewing in the U.K. to boost the GBP thrown in to boot.

This weeks BOE plus ECB will chart the course.
There is a nicely forming trend starting to exhibit on the 4 hour and larger time frames. Currently the unwinding of long term carry trades is probably moving the pair now.

Am waiting for something to happen in the USD/CAD to show the possible future.

Closed the GBP/USD longs. Will wait out the overnight as the equities reversal today warrants watching.
Keeping on the EURO/GBP short and just added a GBP/JPY short for a quick move out of ASIA, target 140.00. U.S. consumers still retrenching

Hey VENGE: sorry about your poutine urge not being satisfied (but ya shoulda listened waaaay back in Dec). You do not have to go to the "swamp" to gets yer arteries clogged. You get PEI taters,gourmet olive oil & a ribsteak roast. You broil the roast, collect the drippings in order to make a gravy & fry the potato strips in the extra-virgin olive oil ( cold-pressed naturally) to a light golden brown. Layer the above with slivers of gourmet swiss cheese ( from Canada) and voila- served with succulent ribeye steak- gastronomic heaven.

G/CAD: await < 5180

E/CAD: STO is O/S on D mayhaps retrace to 3500/3650? but all ema's are down.
I am liking sell below 3330.

E/CHF: there has been little action (D chart) since 04/1 $ is @ the down TL ( 03/11-04/1 hi's). Good trade coming?

Meantime; I be shopping. With LOONIE strength, I can get those books FOTO recommended on Amazon far cheaper than in Canada including the duty,shipping, taxes .

Evening TB: thanks for your input. The more insight from people, the better our probability to profit!

I find reading the info of others & applying it to MY TRADE PLAN has been most beneficial. The info allows me to make a more balanced decision.

I shall put 9986 onto my charts & watch it.

well for another view
i'm long usd/cad SL .9980 TP 1.07
and eur/cad SL 1.335 TP 1.44
and gbp/cad SL 1.525 TP 1.62

Hey Scare,
Thanks for the recipe, but just not the same as sitting in a diner on St. Catherine's St. in downtown Montreal and gorging oneself on that most delicious Quebec specialty!

Not sure if anyone else saw this on the news-wires a little bit ago, but seems there is a rumour that CAD employment report has been leaked and will come in 'much stronger' than expected +25k. Going on past leaks, this could be credible and is certainly the reason we saw the USD/CAD get hammered this a.m.!

Clouds, I note you seem pretty bearish on the CAD? Is that a contrarian play as players are pretty long loonies? What's your time frame(s) on your TPs?

Cheers!

Jeeze, USD/CAD did get hammered. My rational, is that parity is a big psychological level, and A/U and U/C are highly correlated, and A/U is near .93 , which is a big resistance, but today's PA is making me doubt my convictions. The week is pretty much over, will have wait till next week and see what happens.

YO VENGE: thanks for the tip . Never did poutine on St. Catherines ( went to High School of Montreal on University) but got amazing atherosclerosis from the daily Ben's smoked meat sandwiches.

CAD got too much going its way right now for a reversal ( sorry TB, Clouds et al).

I'm watching E/Cad sst 3335 & G/Cad sst9973 ( TPP 9770).

As Clouds mentioned "wait until next week" {truly appropriate for a Leaf fan}

I don't know how this will play out, but if the only thing holding up the Euro is the SNB, then this is a good opportunity to short EURO.
Have added to the EURO/GBP short on the spike up. Shorted EURO/USD on the same intervention.

USD/CAD . Technicaly it is still down and this may continue on FED devaluing fears, but there are other opportunities to trade in other pairs.
Equities just seem to be a house of cards that any small wind will topple.
Bulling up stocks on government spending is not the stuff of good economics.

The Euro/Usd on the 8 hr/40 day chart has an obvious downtrend drawn from the high on 3/17 This resistance line seems to be holding which implies some serious sellers at this level.
There is no way to judge how the market will respond when the Greek bailout whatever form it takes is publicaly announced. That is the most known event to be probably announced over the weekend. There is still the specter of Spain overhang and the Bundesbank is not a happy camper about the politics involved.

This is just another trade, and should be treated as such. Only gamblers swing for the fences, which is not speculating.

FOTO: a pleasant weekend to you.

Came across a grasshopper/ant article @ http://www.babypips.com/blogs/curren...images/040910/ that

you & Venge;et al, may gleam some information from.

Began with a Woody Allen quote : " More than any other time in history Mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair & hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly!"

If gold escalates, then the comm currencies should also.

Hi Scarecru,
Maybe you could double check that weblink, it didn't come up when clicked upon. Think that the US is on the verge of rediscovering itself.

The greater good that the socialists keep harping on by redistributing Americas wealth is not the greater good that built America. The greater good that built America was the belief that freedom of the individual, self determination, was more precious then slavery to the State.

Perhaps this administration has not read any unrevised history books. That America was founded upon principles enshrined in the Magna Carta.

If my posts tend to have a political theme and people are uncomfortable with that, they should take a look at the Nuremberg trials. These outline how people who knew what was going on, said and did nothing to prevent the rise of Fascism because the preception of the greater good for Germany never was challenged.

I prefer to leave my country to my childrens, childrens, childrens a free democracy.

As in Herman Melvilles short story Billy Budd, "I prefer not to" is my response to what is going on.

FOTO: sorry about that.

google :babypips & when google page up click on babypips ( should take you to new blogs - just did it twice).

I hate to tell you, but America nowadays has a debt so huge that it is unpayable by current means - there is no America's wealth to distribute anymore, you now owe everything you have. That is what you are leaving to your children, as a matter of fact. Sorry for that, man.

FOTO: Rhetorical question. I believe that you know the definition of the R?.

The Grasshopper/Ant parable: the tune being played on the fiddle is "Rhetoric" & the governments have elevated it to "Rhapsody" status.

However;to be fair, living in a "Nanny State" does have its advantages.


For example,............. ....

ok, I shall get back to you with them.
Wait, one just came to mind... you get higher taxes to help the politicos give your assets to the poor! ( Now, don't you feel better?).

FYI to newbies: definitions: " rhapsody": rapturous writing

"rhetorical question": question asked for effect with no answer expected

"rhetoric": skill in effective writing & speaking; insincere language

Dear Jan: what country isn't in similar straits?
That be the result of rhetorical altruism.

Hey Scarecru, no big deal. Am always interested in others ideas.

Hi JanPoko. Protecting ones lifes work from confiscation is where the markets are now. Just walk down the block where you live, smell that spring air, America is still the best.
No offense intended to the friends up in that North country. Hope your snow is gone by now.

Course the snow is gone-Gore's Global Warming is ensuring that soon we won't be needing Florida (Dec thru Mar) Thunder Bay will be the new Ft. Lauderdale

My thoughts on charts:

M: STO & MacD are down.

W: STO & MacD are down.

D: to me, it appears a sym triangle in a downtrend- bearish.

I shall watch for a triangle break for either retrace up or US/CAD 98

From the weekly charts 1 wk/10 year. The major support level at 1.0250 when it broke moves this pair into the next trading range lower. The level from .9800 to the 102.50 level held for good part of 2008. This pair has held below this prior support long enough to suggest that the downside has the potential to reach the next major support at .9800

Prior to the 1.0250 level sucumbing we had a double bottom in place. It should now be treated as a resistance level. The only way to trade the USD/CAD from the long side is if one holds the opinion that deflation will be the ongoing state of affairs, with eventual impact upon commodities.

To trade that fundamental viewpoint one must also hold a technical view of the market. To confirm that deflation is the reality would mean a concerted drive above and hold above the key 1.0250 level. If that is achieved then this pair should be traded long.

For now the Canadian economy is performing better then the US and will most likely be the first to raise interest rates as Bernanke will do nothing until there are sustained gains in employment.

I think this pair should be traded as a range bound market with a buy of .9800 and sell rallies at 1.0230

Given the tenuous nature of the equities rally (too far too fast without real economic activity) the fundamentals do not support the notion that the USD/CAD is now in a major downtrend, leading to levels as low as .80

1.00 parity level is finding significant support. Whether from profit taking by those shorts from higher levels or actual position building of longs is a difficult call. Most likely too early to be made currently.

If one trades for the short term then this post is of no real meaning. For the longer term player then the call is neutral as we are basicaly at midpoint of the larger range. The longer term trader would take no position now, as no real direction is evident in price.

Would also keep close watch of EURO/USD as a sharp break to the downside would trigger a selloff in equities. If that were to happen and no followup central bank intervention (possible but not likely) then that would be a trigger event for the next directional move in this pair.