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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #3,181
  • Edited Mar 26, 2010 2:44am Mar 25, 2010 11:40pm | Edited Mar 26, 2010 2:44am
i see what you're talking about in the h4. that 4h tl is holding very strong so i'm keeping an eye on that if it keeps falling

updated chart with next buy target.

edit. missed the limit buy by 8 pips.
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  • #3,182
  • Mar 28, 2010 10:05am Mar 28, 2010 10:05am
Thanks to all posters. All opinions expressed is what makes for interesting discussion.

Politics of currencies are created by Soverign powers. National self interest will always be a factor affecting policy decisions. It is those decisions that influence market perceptions and consequently market valuations.

The extreme levels that markets can reach are not driven exclusively by rational thought. Emotional decision making and finding those distortional highs and lows is the basis of contrarian trading.

Currently the U.S. is being affected by such an emotional distortion which
is allowing the ongoing Nationalization of the private economy by Government regulation. This will be challenged in November as a free people will not tolerate the absolutists intruding in the daily lives of citizens to such a degree.

Americans are not so naive they cannot differentiate those who serve the public from those whose lust for power and control drives decisions. The tempest brews.

This is a factor in analysis of the macro conditions underlying the USD.
I will continue to trade the USD from the bull side as I believe the tide is turning and America is getting to the point that the civilian population fully is coming to grips with the ugliness of centralized planning.
  • #3,183
  • Mar 28, 2010 8:36pm Mar 28, 2010 8:36pm
Quoting foto
Thanks to all posters. All opinions expressed is what makes for interesting discussion.
I will continue to trade the USD from the bull side as I believe the tide is turning and America is getting to the point that the civilian population fully is coming to grips with the ugliness of centralized planning.
Well stated, my friend (as usual)

The USDI is going up!

However, wrt Loonie-comms are increasing their shorts & CAD futures are going up. That is why I am loonie bear.

WRT OZ: comms be increasing their short position BUT the future's $AUD has been dropping!

Euro: future's $ is dropping & comms are increasing their longs.
Interesting times acomin'.
I shall still view parity for loonie, tempered with US$ strength on other X's.
  • #3,184
  • Mar 30, 2010 5:30am Mar 30, 2010 5:30am
Finally some good news out this morning. Find myself long the GBP/USD on the break of 1.50 and sustained price action above the 1.5050 level.

Maybe the good old Anglo-Saxon economic model will lead out of the quagmire.

The Euro is faced with increasing inflationary pressure with imports and a structural problem that will collapse if the ECB is forced to raise interest rates. Like it even less at this time. Waiting for some turn in price on the retrace and will sell again.
  • #3,185
  • Mar 31, 2010 10:39am Mar 31, 2010 10:39am
Something to consider, with the likelyhood that China will be designated a currency manipulator, it would be a strange thing for them to keep holding the USD reserves they have at current/past levels.

The current near term support for the EURO/USD may be contributable to this notion that China has been selling USD and buying Euro for awhile now. May also explain the exhaustion breakdowns of this Pair.

Since this is a blog and much trading is conjecture in any event, thought it might be a contributing factor in analysis.

The action in EURO/GBP during US hours suggests heightened buying of EURO over the GBP during those banking hours. Whereas off US time the reverse occurs.

Also capital flows out of the EURO into CHF suggests that the Euro is not as strong internaly. When currency reserve transfer runs its course, more selling in the Euro is likely. Just have to wait it out for good entry.

Have a happy holiday to those celebrating Easter.
  • #3,186
  • Mar 31, 2010 9:40pm Mar 31, 2010 9:40pm
NFP on Fri- EASTER & PASSOVER holidays. Possible thin mkt action resulting in increased volatility? Good scalping-maybe.

BEAVER still going up (went long in early Feb @ 82.65) Positive CAD news today.

Eyeballing E/CHF: lifetime low today. SNB intervention likely? ( has SNB EVER intervened before)

E/Y: D chart. inverted H&S? with neckline break. Will retest 125? STO is in O/B area. Previous Support/Resistance @ 126.80. I'm thinking BuyStop entry @ 127. Target 130
  • #3,187
  • Apr 1, 2010 6:47pm Apr 1, 2010 6:47pm
Anybody get a Swiss chocolate treat about 11a.m. EDT? Gotta say this aboo the Swiss- when SNB says CHF too high- ya gotz to lissen.
( they may remain neutral during war;but, don't invade the franc!).

Leafs out of playoffs, so Loonie has until June 2011 to reach parity before I lose my bet! My loonietek says parity & possible 0.9750 afore HST.

With NFP tomorrow, & holiday; I am going to watch for more Swiss cheese. Don't trade any chf pairs unless, they appear a gift.
  • #3,188
  • Apr 2, 2010 5:02pm Apr 2, 2010 5:02pm
I'm not sure what others have on their charts, but in the last minute of trading today, the UC shot up to 1.0411 and stopped at 1.0396 on my chart. I trade with ACM and I don't use stops, but this 307 pip move at the end of the day looks bizarre on my charts. Actually, I'm currently long so if I could TP now, I would be handsomely rewarded.

Question...does anyone else have this on their charts? Is is just after hours computer server maintenance? Or is someone expecting commodoties to drop a bit next week?

I can post a screen shot if anyone cares.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #3,189
  • Apr 2, 2010 6:01pm Apr 2, 2010 6:01pm
I have checked three sources and they all agree thsat the usdcad closed @1.01050. I bet you can not close that trade and take the 300pips. You will have to wait till sunsay night to re-assess the situation

Good luck
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,190
  • Apr 3, 2010 9:15am Apr 3, 2010 9:15am
Olu, i checked around too and found the same close level as you. I've seen crazy things happen with the spreads after hours, but not my candles and charts. And you're right...i could not close the trade as trading close immediately after the spike. I'm sure it will settle back down to the 1.01xx area.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #3,191
  • Apr 3, 2010 9:18am Apr 3, 2010 9:18am
Go here: http://www.ac-markets.com/

and click on the "Currency Rates" box on the left. Then check out the after hours posted rate for the USDCAD. As of 10:15 am on Saturday, it is 1.0402x


P.S. Gotta be a computer maintenance thing. When I check my ACM demo account (where I post all my charts), the rate is 1.01085.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #3,192
  • Apr 3, 2010 4:28pm Apr 3, 2010 4:28pm
DUCE: read your posts & my constipation problem is now solved!

4 different chart platforms that I use have Hi for the day (Apr 2) @ 1.0130.

Tomorrow when mkts open, hope I don't see a gap up to your nose-bleed highs!

What are the Cad crosses showing? eg: Cad/Y Cad/Chf etc. Are they also showing this extreme CAD weakness?
  • #3,193
  • Apr 4, 2010 10:06am Apr 4, 2010 10:06am
Quoting Scarecru
DUCE: read your posts & my constipation problem is now solved!
LOL ! This was not my intention at all, Scarecru. I was just posting what I saw. I'm sure it is a weekend server thing. Let's see what tonight's open brings. I doubt there will be any gap.

Happy Easter and Passover to those who celebrate, and ciao for now.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #3,194
  • Apr 5, 2010 8:58pm Apr 5, 2010 8:58pm
Support @ 0160 was broken & now mayhap be retrace target.

However; I still believe parity is possible.

Indicators on D still show US/CAD down.

My TPP ( should parity be reached) is 0.9830.Then 0.9770.

Still long BEAVER, & if Loonie keeps its strength, shall monitor E/CAD & other CAD X's for short opportunities.
  • #3,195
  • Apr 5, 2010 9:39pm Apr 5, 2010 9:39pm
Good Evening FOTO:

Hope that you & yours spent a wonderful Easter/Passover weekend.

Today was somewhat interesting wrt serendipitous info.

One guy was telling me about his fx trading course & how the instructors were talking about the United Arabs dinar becoming the new reserve currency ( he can make millions on a $10K account).

Then there was a news (business) clip & it was mentioned (re: USD) that trend reversal is similar to the Queen Mary changing direction; it goes with the current & tests it until it finds the weak spot & is then able to cross the current. Made sense to me, as he added the distance required for the turnaround is large.

Third: I was listening to a sports audio clip of B.O. throwing out the first baseball of the season. I may be wrong ( often am) but I thought that I heard booing from the stands!

Just made me think about your GH/Ants posts is all. (I always reread the posts in this thread).

These are items that I utilize in making my trade decisions on the Bottom Feeder levels.

Fear not, one of these fine days, I; too, shall be a US/CAD bull.
  • #3,196
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:39am Apr 6, 2010 9:39am
So look at this, parity printed for the first time since July ’08 (actually 0.9992)! It’s been a slow grind to here and it’s possible to see gains continue as the BOC gets closer to hiking rates maybe by end of Q2...? Relatively speaking, CAD has been outperforming many of its counterparts and should this trend continue and commodity prices remain strong, a push lower to 0.9800 initially is likely. Recently, CAD gains look to have been fueled by the rise in equities and commodities – oil prices especially.



That said, the contrarian in me is saying to buy since everyone got what they wanted - a print at parity! However, the contrarian in me is wrong more often than he is right...So I think I will ignore him for the moment.
  • #3,197
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:50am Apr 6, 2010 9:50am
Quoting Vengeance
So look at this, parity printed for the first time since July ’08 (actually 0.9992)! It’s been a slow grind to here and it’s possible to see gains continue as the BOC gets closer to hiking rates maybe by end of Q2...? Relatively speaking, CAD has been outperforming many of its counterparts and should this trend continue and commodity prices remain strong, a push lower to 0.9800 initially is likely. Recently, CAD gains look to have been fueled by the rise in equities and commodities – oil prices especially.



That said, the contrarian in me...
If u have a $10000 account,400:1 leverage, start building long with mini lots every 100 pips down and u can't lose!...
  • #3,198
  • Apr 6, 2010 8:29pm Apr 6, 2010 8:29pm
Quoting Vengeance
So look at this, parity printed for the first time since July ’08 (actually 0.9992)! It’s been a slow grind to here and it’s possible to see gains continue as the BOC gets closer to hiking rates maybe by end of Q2...? Relatively speaking, CAD has been outperforming many of its counterparts and should this trend continue and commodity prices remain strong, a push lower to 0.9800 initially is likely. Recently, CAD gains look to have been fueled by the rise in equities and commodities – oil prices especially.



That said, the contrarian in me...
VENGE: my take- you're just pissed because I don't gotta buy you a poutine.
You speak volumes re: .98??.

My take is consolidation(range sl</> parity for awhile).Usually, Apr/May is CAD +ve.
Meanwhile; I shall play in the G/CAD sandbox.
  • #3,199
  • Apr 7, 2010 12:15am Apr 7, 2010 12:15am
Hi guys, usdcad has now put in a 79% Fib monthly retrace which has completed a MacD positive divergence on all timeframes down to the 4Hr which is a little uncertain at the moment. I'm looking for a small climb up; then a retest of .9986 which I think will just about finish this downward run...just my thoughts on it
  • #3,200
  • Edited 10:09am Apr 7, 2010 10:08am | Edited 10:09am
Quoting Scarecru
VENGE: my take- you're just pissed because I don't gotta buy you a poutine.
You speak volumes re: .98??.

My take is consolidation(range sl</> parity for awhile).Usually, Apr/May is CAD +ve.
Meanwhile; I shall play in the G/CAD sandbox.
I am pissed about the poutine! Haven't had a good one in a while; gotta go to Montreal for that!

I'm looking at .9820 back from May '08 as the next target to the downside. My .9975 was hit this a.m. and there is not a whole lot of bids sitting in the .99s, although some around .9950 and then nothing till .9900.

Trend down is looking tired, and has been due for a bounce for weeks now, IMO. With another build in oil inventories, I think 7th, 8th, 9th week of straight builds I am still scratching my head on oil sitting in the 80s. I'd love to see a bit of USD strength so I can reload shorts at more favourable rates.

Have fun with GBP/CAD! Been a bit to schizophrenic for me. I think EUR/CAD has a better profile if you want to try a CAD cross. And thanks to Greece, you can be relatively assured, at least for the time being, that the overall EUR trend remains down.

Well gotta get back to 'work', clients be a callin!

Merry Trading y'all!
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