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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #1,741
  • Apr 12, 2010 10:50am Apr 12, 2010 10:50am
Quoting shahab8b
look at my last G/U charts at previous pages,

Long G/U 1.5400 SL=1.5350 TP=1.5550 & 1.5650

same time short E/G from .8825 Sl=50 targeting weekly pivot at .8780
I exited short G/U earlier at B/E, atm holding short E/U and E/G

I'm looking to long G/U again if the set up is right
  • #1,742
  • Apr 12, 2010 10:57am Apr 12, 2010 10:57am
E/G
my thoughts
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  • #1,743
  • Apr 12, 2010 11:15am Apr 12, 2010 11:15am
G/U

Buy limit at 1.53 SL=1.5250 TP =weekly R1 & R2

reason:
R>S
Fib 23%
weekly pivot,

I like this trade
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  • #1,744
  • Apr 12, 2010 11:42am Apr 12, 2010 11:42am
Going down from fib and channel top
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  • #1,745
  • Apr 12, 2010 3:20pm Apr 12, 2010 3:20pm
Quoting Tuner

So you did hold your Long A/U from 9280?
I got out at resistance + 12 after a long ride to nowhere. This is how it played out on the 5min chart. You can see how effective the pivots were.
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BTC Return This Year: na
  • #1,746
  • Apr 12, 2010 3:23pm Apr 12, 2010 3:23pm
Written by Danske Bank Apr 12 10

Market was short EUR ahead of Greek loan announcement
The latest IMM data covers the week from 30 March to 6 April.
Speculative investors trimmed EUR positions slightly, but remained significantly short the single currency going into last week. This helps explain the relief rally in the EUR following the announcement yesterday that eurozone member states together with the IMF will offer a combined loan of EUR45bn to Greece. EUR/USD has climbed more than 2% since Friday to trade back above 1.36, as EUR shorts have been unwound. Given the significant short positions that have been built up in recent months, we suspect that the current positive EUR sentiment could have further to run.
Short CHF positions were trimmed, despite alleged SNB intervention on 1 April seeing EUR/CHF spike slightly higher. Net short CHF positions currently stand at m13% of open interest.
Non-commercial positions continue to show long positions in the USD bloc currencies and short positions in the EUR bloc currencies, reflecting the EUR negative sentiment that has been in place for some time
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  • #1,747
  • Apr 12, 2010 3:36pm Apr 12, 2010 3:36pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
I got out at resistance + 12 after a long ride to nowhere. This is how it played out on the 5min chart. You can see how effective the pivots were.
well done. some green pips.
right now we are also sitting on the weekly pivot again for some time already.
let's see what the direction will be.
Still holding my Short EUR/AUD (+45 at the moment)
so I would like to see AUD bounce to the upside again.
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #1,748
  • Edited 4:32pm Apr 12, 2010 4:21pm | Edited 4:32pm
U/J

buy limit at 92.90 Sl=92.60 TP 95 & 97
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  • #1,749
  • Apr 12, 2010 4:57pm Apr 12, 2010 4:57pm
it seems A/U starts falling when we don't expect it ,this market never fails to surprise us.

I'm looking to short A/U if I get a chance to enter at weekly pivot re-touch at .9279

there is a case of right angle-descending broadening top
  • #1,750
  • Apr 12, 2010 5:09pm Apr 12, 2010 5:09pm
A/U

I'm tempted to call it a top. we will see.

looking to sell against the top
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  • #1,751
  • Apr 12, 2010 5:10pm Apr 12, 2010 5:10pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
it seems A/U starts falling when we don't expect it ,this market never fails to surprise us.

I'm looking to short A/U if I get a chance to enter at weekly pivot re-touch at .9279

there is a case of right angle-descending broadening top
Hey there Shahab,
Yes I was surprised as well. Had a nice short running on EUR/AUD.
and now see it back from +75 to BE+1
Pretty unsure about the AUD at the moment. thought it was going for a last up-move this week.

Are you still in the EUR/GBP?
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #1,752
  • Apr 12, 2010 5:18pm Apr 12, 2010 5:18pm
Quoting shahab8b
A/U

I'm tempted to call it a top. we will see.

looking to sell against the top

I'm looking to see if we can get into short, in a good entry with minimum risk

you guys look at your charts and let me know what you think

for now I think of weekly pivot at .9279 & daily pivot at .9300 with a wide SL
  • #1,753
  • Apr 12, 2010 5:24pm Apr 12, 2010 5:24pm
Quoting Tuner
Hey there Shahab,
Yes I was surprised as well. Had a nice short running on EUR/AUD.
and now see it back from +75 to BE+1
Pretty unsure about the AUD at the moment. thought it was going for a last up-move this week.

Are you still in the EUR/GBP?

you should have taken profit on 75 pips,
actually it did , it went to .9387 ,we will see if that's it ,or we will get caught in shorting this beast again.

yea, I still have short E/G, that one is bleeding
  • #1,754
  • Apr 12, 2010 5:27pm Apr 12, 2010 5:27pm
my thoughts on au is that it will fall if it closes say close to 92 ot 922. wait for a move up to 93 or more to short it. i base this last weeks candlestick and this weeks candlestick put together which will give us a pinbar to move downwards.

any ideas on the above ??? maybe i am completely wrong as usual also.
  • #1,755
  • Apr 12, 2010 5:31pm Apr 12, 2010 5:31pm
Quoting shahab8b
I'm looking to see if we can get into short, in a good entry with minimum risk

you guys look at your charts and let me know what you think

for now I think of weekly pivot at .9279 & daily pivot at .9300 with a wide SL
For AU if 9283 resistance holds then it should be back down into around 9200. From there I will be looking at long opportunities up to 9409. Once it has reached there I would be tempted to call a top until probably Q3.
  • #1,756
  • Apr 12, 2010 5:39pm Apr 12, 2010 5:39pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
you should have taken profit on 75 pips,
actually it did , it went to .9387 ,we will see if that's it ,or we will get caught in shorting this beast again.

yea, I still have short E/G, that one is bleeding
I know... would have been some nice pips.
next time...

I had a short on the AUD from sunday opening from 9383...took 25 lousy pips out of that one. (at least not BE )

For now let's see how far the retrace goes. weekly or daily pivot, as you suggested could be fine. if we topped now.
I am tempted not to go for a short yet (burnt my finger too often the last weeks) and maybe wait until we got the clear trend again. (down?)
If we drop there is much room to go south
I rather miss the first "some hundred" pips now and try to jump on the train later. --> at the moment
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #1,757
  • Apr 12, 2010 5:49pm Apr 12, 2010 5:49pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
you should have taken profit on 75 pips,
actually it did , it went to .9387 ,we will see if that's it ,or we will get caught in shorting this beast again.

yea, I still have short E/G, that one is bleeding

Some Elliott Wave analysis:

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0100412110735/
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #1,758
  • Apr 12, 2010 6:19pm Apr 12, 2010 6:19pm
Looks attractive to me considering the RR
Long at 1.4360
stop: 1.4303
TP: 1.4550
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  • #1,759
  • Apr 12, 2010 6:24pm Apr 12, 2010 6:24pm
A/u

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usd/cad

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  • #1,760
  • Apr 12, 2010 6:26pm Apr 12, 2010 6:26pm
It is moving in an up channel. I am going to place limit sell starting at 38% and upto 50%. Stop goes behind 62%
Short at: 1.0097, 1.0115, 1.0130
SL: 1.0185
TP: 1.0020, .99, .98
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