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  • #241
  • Apr 11, 2010 11:04pm Apr 11, 2010 11:04pm
Quoting Saxon
It's odd, but I'm not in the Aussie right now; one of my major pairs. I am still unable to make sense on direction; enough to make a trade. Aussie did close the gap, thanks to the news. We are on a S/R right now and did break through a short term TL. I think the next few hours and London will help push this one way or the other.
yep i agree, because of gap, news, perhaps not a good time to enter, we shall wait and see if the S holds at 9313 and the next major one's at 9300 before making any sense of its direction
  • #242
  • Apr 11, 2010 11:10pm Apr 11, 2010 11:10pm
Quoting OvT
yep i agree, because of gap, news, perhaps not a good time to enter, we shall wait and see if the S holds at 9313 and the next major one's at 9300 before making any sense of its direction
I have direction as long to 9410 but i doubt that today is a good buy, I think tomorrow will be better for this pair.
  • #243
  • Apr 11, 2010 11:14pm Apr 11, 2010 11:14pm
Ya, I'm watching the Europe pairs and suprisingly USD/ZAR. UZ is at a really strong S/R and I have been trading bounces on it. It just took another big one. Here is the chart. I usually don't post the more illiquid pairs because I don't know if everyone's FCMs trade them.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #244
  • Apr 11, 2010 11:40pm Apr 11, 2010 11:40pm
AUD is coming up on "00" 93 - Green Line
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  • #245
  • Apr 11, 2010 11:48pm Apr 11, 2010 11:48pm
If UJ pushes through MAs, the only significant roof I have will be a combo of UTL and MA 200. I will sell there. See Chart
  • #246
  • Apr 11, 2010 11:49pm Apr 11, 2010 11:49pm
Quoting Saxon
If UJ pushes through MAs, the only significant roof I have will be a combo of UTL and MA 200. I will sell there. See Chart
Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #247
  • Apr 11, 2010 11:51pm Apr 11, 2010 11:51pm
Got triggered in aussie. Now sidelined waiting to see if 9270 can hold up.
  • #248
  • Apr 11, 2010 11:52pm Apr 11, 2010 11:52pm
Quoting blurbear
Got triggered in aussie. Now sidelined waiting to see if 9270 can hold up.
Ya, it looks like "00" 93 accelerated PA instead of bounced it. Also, plowed through MA 200
  • #249
  • Apr 11, 2010 11:54pm Apr 11, 2010 11:54pm
Quoting Saxon
Ya, I'm watching the Europe pairs and suprisingly USD/ZAR. UZ is at a really strong S/R and I have been trading bounces on it. It just took another big one. Here is the chart. I usually don't post the more illiquid pairs because I don't know if everyone's FCMs trade them.
Hi Saxon,
Now you have my attention - you trade UZ with the political situation here for the last 4-5 weeks, I will not be surprised if she takes another spike to the upside - I expect Z to take a bit of a knock - I am no economist, but carry on this way and your currency (ZAR) will get knocked... (EDIT: Ref: political lack of leadership, service delivery and a stewing pot of racism&fear)
  • #250
  • Apr 11, 2010 11:57pm Apr 11, 2010 11:57pm
Quoting Paulette
Hi Saxon,
Now you have my attention - you trade UZ with the political situation here for the last 4-5 weeks, I will not be surprised if she takes another spike to the upside - I expect Z to take a bit of a knock - I am no economist, but carry on this way and your currency (ZAR) will get knocked...
Due to the gaps that formed today in the Majors, I have been trading S/R strictly on UZ. Also, this summer I expect this pair to be my big bread winner. I have safe stops so I'm not concerned about unexpected vol. Also, with the more illiquid pairs I trade light. What do you think this summer will bring for your pair?
  • #251
  • Apr 11, 2010 11:59pm Apr 11, 2010 11:59pm
Quoting Saxon
Chart
This trade might come to fruition, so watch out. Also, make sure that your analysis works with mine before trading. Watch PA and if it is too strong, DONT TRADE. Good luck!
  • #252
  • Apr 12, 2010 12:15am Apr 12, 2010 12:15am
Quoting Saxon
Due to the gaps that formed today in the Majors, I have been trading S/R strictly on UZ. Also, this summer I expect this pair to be my big bread winner. I have safe stops so I'm not concerned about unexpected vol. Also, with the more illiquid pairs I trade light. What do you think this summer will bring for your pair?
This is what I mean by UZ being my bread winner this summer
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/
  • #253
  • Apr 12, 2010 12:22am Apr 12, 2010 12:22am
Quoting Saxon
Due to the gaps that formed today in the Majors, I have been trading S/R strictly on UZ. Also, this summer I expect this pair to be my big bread winner. I have safe stops so I'm not concerned about unexpected vol. Also, with the more illiquid pairs I trade light. What do you think this summer will bring for your pair?
Upcoming SWC might just favor Z for the next couple of months, we have also been fortunate that prior to the economic meltdown we had some serious financial legislation put in place to shelter the broader emerging community from over extension on debt (personal and commercial).

Political situation will remain factor - lets just HOPE for

Personally I dont trade UZ live - maybe once I have outgrown my "baby" trading shoes.

Would you mind sharing which other pairs you trade: ok, majors, major crosses and?
  • #254
  • Apr 12, 2010 12:28am Apr 12, 2010 12:28am
Quoting Paulette
Upcoming SWC might just favor Z for the next couple of months, we have also been fortunate that prior to the economic meltdown we had some serious financial legislation put in place to shelter the broader emerging community from over extension on debt (personal and commercial).

Political situation will remain factor - lets just HOPE for

Personally I dont trade UZ live - maybe once I have outgrown my "baby" trading shoes.

Would you mind sharing which other pairs you trade: ok, majors, major crosses and?
The pairs that I mainly trade are USD/CHF, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. I run an Asia/Pacific Pool so I try to book mostly A/P pairs, but if there is an obvious Europe setup then I will trade outside of my mandate. Lately there has been a lot of out-of-the-box PA with all my Pairs so my clients are going to get interesting statements and see they had exposure all over the place. Oh well, if it is profit and I have not ruined an exposure hedge for them, then they should be ok.
  • #255
  • Apr 12, 2010 12:32am Apr 12, 2010 12:32am
Off topic, but does anyone else find it intersting that the US dumped more $ into "saving the banks" than the EU is forking over to save Greece?
  • #256
  • Apr 12, 2010 12:34am Apr 12, 2010 12:34am
I know it was a nice Gap day, and it probably threw a wrench into all our analysis, but does anyone else have any setups in the works. The only real one that I am watching right now is that UJ one that i showed up above.
  • #257
  • Apr 12, 2010 12:39am Apr 12, 2010 12:39am
Quoting Saxon
This is what I mean by UZ being my bread winner this summer
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/
We seemed to have missed each other with the posts - locally Match (affiliate of FIFA) have canceled/retracted a third of all accommodation and airline projections due to the lack of international interest (especially in northern provinces). Match is battling to sell tickets, the numbers are just not there and the international wave expected, just not arriving.

It is known that SWC in each hosting country has spiked their economy, however without being negative - there are some realities down here:
1) residential property prices remains stable, not on up;
2) motor industry is expecting a 2nd bounce as first was meltdown, now the flood of rental cars hitting the second hand market - our # approved potential vehicle owners are just much smaller?
3) Retail Food Supply Chain has huge concerns to handle volume throughout the value chain;
4) security & service delivery coupled with the lack of political leadership to address much needed "corrections" is just not there - unfortunately this will impact the SWC.

Tourists will need to be wide awake, Western / Southern Cape is least affected.

However, we are happy at least the SWC brought much needed infrastructure and existing infrastructure upgrades throughout the country. Also spilling over into neighboring countries with tourism.

We have faith that the hosting will be positive and tourists safe.
  • #258
  • Apr 12, 2010 12:44am Apr 12, 2010 12:44am
Quoting Paulette
We seemed to have missed each other with the posts - locally Match (affiliate of FIFA) have canceled/retracted a third of all accommodation and airline projections due to the lack of international interest (especially in northern provinces). Match is battling to sell tickets, the numbers are just not there and the international wave expected, just not arriving.

It is known that SWC in each hosting country has spiked their economy, however without being negative - there are some realities down here:
1) residential property prices remains stable,...
You probably know better than anyone, since you live there. Either way, I feel that the games will not have a downward affect on the ZAR. If anything, it will at least give it direction for the summer.
  • #259
  • Apr 12, 2010 12:48am Apr 12, 2010 12:48am
Almost there
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  • #260
  • Apr 12, 2010 12:48am Apr 12, 2010 12:48am
Quoting Saxon
You probably know better than anyone, since you live there. Either way, I feel that the games will not have a downward affect on the ZAR. If anything, it will at least give it direction for the summer.
Agree, lets be positive and have faith...
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