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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #1,701
  • Apr 11, 2010 5:09pm Apr 11, 2010 5:09pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
well done
EU stil running. found the right way again
After those trades I will stand aside and wait what London and US session will bring.
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #1,702
  • Apr 11, 2010 5:15pm Apr 11, 2010 5:15pm
Quoting Tuner
EU stil running. found the right way again
After those trades I will stand aside and wait what London and US session will bring.
that's the best thing, I set the TP, and I'm going to library.
later
  • #1,703
  • Apr 11, 2010 5:51pm Apr 11, 2010 5:51pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Does everyone pretty much expect these gaps to be filled in?

hey marc..... most all gaps close.... i wrote a ea to verify that long ago.... it logged every gap of reasonable size and kept talley on length of time it took to close....

there were some drawdowns if it took a week or more...... very few ended in a loss.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #1,704
  • Apr 11, 2010 6:14pm Apr 11, 2010 6:14pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting hayseed
hey marc..... most all gaps close.... i wrote a ea to verify that long ago.... it logged every gap of reasonable size and kept talley on length of time it took to close....

there were some drawdowns if it took a week or more...... very few ended in a loss.....h

Hey there hayseed,
That sounds interesting. been going through the charts looking if/how gaps were filled...Sure with an EA that work would be a lot easier

seen before you have some nice tools and codings.. you only use them as "assistance" in your trading or also automated?

Regards,
Tuner
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #1,705
  • Apr 11, 2010 6:38pm Apr 11, 2010 6:38pm
hey tuner..... 99.9% automated.... way too laid back to manual trade... it's just not me....

i prefer to spend my time coding and let the ea's handle the money.....


//----

just about the only time i manually enter a order is on sunday...... if the market gaps and runs hard against my open orders, i will at times place a few orders just for deer feeder money..... they gotta eat too........

and as hard as the market is moving against me now, their going to be eatin real good........ ouch......ouch....... h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #1,706
  • Apr 11, 2010 6:53pm Apr 11, 2010 6:53pm
Quoting hayseed
hey marc..... most all gaps close.... i wrote a ea to verify that long ago.... it logged every gap of reasonable size and kept talley on length of time it took to close....

there were some drawdowns if it took a week or more...... very few ended in a loss.....h
What TF did you use to back test? on an H4 TF was the gap closed in under 8 hrs? More insight would be much appreciated.

This one made me some nice pips for the start of the week. Won't trade till tomorrow now.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #1,707
  • Apr 11, 2010 6:59pm Apr 11, 2010 6:59pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting hayseed
hey tuner..... 99.9% automated.... way too laid back to manual trade... it's just not me....

i prefer to spend my time coding and let the ea's handle the money.....


//----

just about the only time i manually enter a order is on sunday...... if the market gaps and runs hard against my open orders, i will at times place a few orders just for deer feeder money..... they gotta eat too........

and as hard as the market is moving against me now, their going to be eatin real good........ ouch......ouch....... h
Thanks for the info..
The fact that you are coding them yourself is a good thing. Way better than buying a "black box" that just promises huges profits.
so you can be more confident in letting them handle your money I think.

I did try to get into coding a bit more myself. but it takes some time as well.
There is an EA-contest from a Broker here in Germany at the moment.
signed up there with a "slightly" modified EA I found on the net..
one month to turn 10000 Demo-Euro into a lot more hopefully. we will see

yeah- today is a bit crazy
just took some pips out of those gaps and will stand aside for now to wait for London and US sessions to react.

Good luck with your trades!
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #1,708
  • Apr 11, 2010 7:03pm Apr 11, 2010 7:03pm
Fibs and Pivots...

YEAH... Greece is saved.

Inserted Video
  • #1,709
  • Apr 11, 2010 7:17pm Apr 11, 2010 7:17pm
Quoting acumen
Fibs and Pivots...

YEAH... Greece is saved.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DUbq3R89WU

Hi Mike, thanx for your nice video and perfect analysis,

guys, watch this video and look at 2.27 min when Mike drew the R turned S line on the screen, if you can see these lines while you are trading you will make money.
  • #1,710
  • Apr 11, 2010 7:38pm Apr 11, 2010 7:38pm
Quoting aragorn123
Hi Shahab,
Thanks for the links. Let me see if I got this right...

when there is change in net positions from positive to negative (or vice-versa) and COT index is extreme, then go with the trend.

when the change in net position is in the same direction (positive or negative) and COT index is extreme, go counter trend.

Is the above correct? If it is, then could you please answer the Yen question below ...

Last 3 Net positions: 10161 -> -30866 -> -42305
COT...
somehow you got it right, the point is to use COT to make a better decision about the direction of your trades, not just taking short/long looking at COT.Let me put it this way, I dont know if you are familiar with Elliot Wave, in EW we have impulsive waves and corrective waves, the impulsive moves are those move that are sharp and some times vertical, corrective moves have different characteristics. If you know the net positing of the market you can be 75% sure that you get the impulsive moves direction right.for instance , look at E/U: larger trend and impulsive moves are in the direction of net position (down) ,for A/U impulsive moves and trend are in the direction of positioning too (up) for U/J the net positing is long so you can expect the impulsive moves to be in the upside.as a general rule counter-trend trading is not safe at all, you need to have enough technical reason to do so , and COT extreme readings can stay extreme for a couple of weeks before you see a reversal or a significant correction.
  • #1,711
  • Apr 11, 2010 7:48pm Apr 11, 2010 7:48pm
Quoting hellopip
Looks to me a pretty god set up.
Long near 7130
Stop: behind 7075
Target: 7234, 7281, 7327
Hi there, good set up,
would you mind letting me know for how long you have been trading?
  • #1,712
  • Apr 11, 2010 8:13pm Apr 11, 2010 8:13pm
EU is a classic bearish gartley to me. I don't use the pivots, sorry.
Recently found your thread, what a cool place!
  • #1,713
  • Apr 11, 2010 8:17pm Apr 11, 2010 8:17pm
Quoting elitejets
EU is a classic bearish gartley to me. I don't use the pivots, sorry.
Recently found your thread, what a cool place!
Hi elitejets, thanx for your comment, I had that bearish garltey too, haven't changed my mind yet, still cautiously bearish on this pair

here is the gartley
#1659
  • #1,714
  • Apr 11, 2010 8:29pm Apr 11, 2010 8:29pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi elitejets, thanx for your comment, I had that bearish garltey too, haven't changed my mind yet, still cautiously bearish on this pair

here is the gartley
#1659
Careful with your NZDUSD hellopip, its a pretty bearish pattern called a butterfly. You might want to wait for a deeper pullback to buy.
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  • #1,715
  • Apr 11, 2010 10:36pm Apr 11, 2010 10:36pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi there, good set up,
would you mind letting me know for how long you have been trading?
Thanks. I am trading about 18 or so months. Love your thread. Its simply great!
  • #1,716
  • Apr 12, 2010 12:22am Apr 12, 2010 12:22am
hey guys
Audusd opened with gap and broke its resistance, seems it come down for last kiss,therefore i think we could limit order 0.9323
and sl 93. or set a buy stop in 0.9340
Good luck
  • #1,717
  • Apr 12, 2010 12:52am Apr 12, 2010 12:52am
Quoting shahab8b
that was expected, the reason I closed all my USD long positions on Fri- with tiny profit or small loss- and didn't hold any open position over the weekend

I stand aside atm, to see how things develop into London and NY session.
Wow, a lot of action. I see you stood aside very well - raking in the pips Commodity currencies lagging here. EUR/Cable's day in the sun. So much for a bounce off the 200 MA on 4 hour USDX. It gapped right over it.

Hey Elite, nice to see you around

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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,718
  • Apr 12, 2010 1:32am Apr 12, 2010 1:32am
closed this for a 5 pip profit, because of gap.

Quoting coolshades
at 5450, 100 pip sl. h4 charts below. i have had the b and the p for a bpc trade and waiting for the c now @ 5450

changed entry to bit higher allowing for some flux around 5400 area
  • #1,719
  • Apr 12, 2010 3:51am Apr 12, 2010 3:51am
AUD/USD price has retraced to test the backside of the broken weekly down trendline. bears need price to trade back underneath this important level thus creating a false breakout. bulls need it to hold. Either way it is unlikely to yield without a fight and should be good for a few pips long at least. i have entered long at .9280
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BTC Return This Year: na
  • #1,720
  • Apr 12, 2010 4:06am Apr 12, 2010 4:06am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
AUD/USD price has retraced to test the backside of the broken weekly down trendline. bears need price to trade back underneath this important level thus creating a false breakout. bulls need it to hold. Either way it is unlikely to yield without a fight and should be good for a few pips long at least. i have entered long at .9280
Hey there.
I agree
Got in a bit later @ .9287.
We had a nice bounce of the weekly pivot there.
(and just before the 4H LTL of the recent upmove)
Looking for some pips from here. maybe the daily pivot@ .9313. or R1 @ .9360
Will watch PA at these levels.
we will see
Good Luck to you
-Tuner-
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
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