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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #1,661
  • Apr 10, 2010 9:34am Apr 10, 2010 9:34am
Quoting Patience
Soros putting in his 2 pence as usual on the Great British Pound.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...3SK8lHoI&pos=2

And here's an article on the effect of a Yuan revaluation. Bloomberg were also saying that if the Yuan was revalued, the AUD would most likely benefit.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/36178418

thanx for sharing.

so long G/U first , then short it at 1.58 ish
  • #1,662
  • Apr 10, 2010 9:57am Apr 10, 2010 9:57am
Quoting shahab8b
thanx for sharing.

so long G/U first , then short it at 1.58 ish
Looks that way to me too. I might even try my luck at a long.

I remember saying to Hayseed that I saw some ATR indicator (not the standard MT4 one) on some charts around the place. I've just seen it on FF so I've loaded it and it looks good. Check it out.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 _ RANGE_TRADER_9.08 Labais53.mq4   18 KB | 274 downloads
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,663
  • Apr 10, 2010 10:16am Apr 10, 2010 10:16am
Quoting shahab8b
E/U

a bearish gartley?
Quoting Victory83
maybe

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/hi...838i_thumb.gif
same analyse, but i think we could count on 1.37 for gaining at least 100 pips
  • #1,664
  • Apr 10, 2010 10:20am Apr 10, 2010 10:20am
Quoting shahab8b
I like it, what is the level that you have for the turning point?
i think the first target could be 1150
  • #1,665
  • Apr 10, 2010 10:25am Apr 10, 2010 10:25am
Quoting Victory83
same analyse, but i think we could count on 1.37 for gaining at least 100 pips
why 1.37?
  • #1,666
  • Apr 10, 2010 10:26am Apr 10, 2010 10:26am
Quoting Victory83
i think the first target could be 1150
1150?? I mean the top I have 1190-91
  • #1,667
  • Apr 10, 2010 10:30am Apr 10, 2010 10:30am
u/Cad
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  • #1,668
  • Apr 10, 2010 10:31am Apr 10, 2010 10:31am
A/U

it should top at .9450 but not before that
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  • #1,669
  • Apr 10, 2010 10:41am Apr 10, 2010 10:41am
Quoting shahab8b
1150?? I mean the top I have 1190-91
sorry, in 1185-1187 i look for reversal in smaller time frame(5 min)
but as you know this pattern will be failed in break of X (1225)
but because of huge stop i just chase the price in clusters so as to hunt it in reversal point.
excuse me for my weak English language
  • #1,670
  • Apr 10, 2010 11:06am Apr 10, 2010 11:06am
Quoting Victory83
sorry, in 1185-1187 i look for reversal in smaller time frame(5 min)
but as you know this pattern will be failed in break of X (1225)
but because of huge stop i just chase the price in clusters so as to hunt it in reversal point.
excuse me for my weak English language
I looked my chart again I have 1188,
there is no need to chase it, I'll buy here then will sell at 1188, a SL of 1196 will do good.
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  • #1,671
  • Apr 10, 2010 11:10am Apr 10, 2010 11:10am
Quoting Patience
Looks that way to me too. I might even try my luck at a long.

I remember saying to Hayseed that I saw some ATR indicator (not the standard MT4 one) on some charts around the place. I've just seen it on FF so I've loaded it and it looks good. Check it out.
thanx patience, I downloaded it , very useful
  • #1,672
  • Apr 10, 2010 11:14am Apr 10, 2010 11:14am
Guys, I'm not posting COT this weekend, because I need to study for the exams

you can look at them at timingcharts.com

the briefing

U/J: buy dip
A/U: buy targeting .9450 then sell
U/Cad: look to buy a break of 1.0150
E/U: buy targeting 1.3650
G/U :buy targeting 1.5650
  • #1,673
  • Apr 10, 2010 11:22am Apr 10, 2010 11:22am
Quoting Patience
Looks that way to me too. I might even try my luck at a long.

I remember saying to Hayseed that I saw some ATR indicator (not the standard MT4 one) on some charts around the place. I've just seen it on FF so I've loaded it and it looks good. Check it out.
thank you patience for all your useful posts.
i would be grateful if you introduce me the thread or site or posts ... to know more about ATR and how we could use it for better trade

thank you
  • #1,674
  • Apr 10, 2010 12:54pm Apr 10, 2010 12:54pm
Quoting Victory83
thank you patience for all your useful posts.
i would be grateful if you introduce me the thread or site or posts ... to know more about ATR and how we could use it for better trade

thank you
Hi Victory83

Here's an explanation of how you can use ATR with your trading http://forex-indicators.net/volatility-indicators/atr

I just generally keep track of daily, weekly and monthly average ranges though. For example, if A/U's daily average for the last 60 days is 100 pips and I sit down at my computer and see that it's already done 95 pips by 1.00 pm London time (8.00 am NY time) then the probability of it going much higher is pretty slim. Of course, it can go over it's daily ATR but if my charts are pointing up and it's only done 50 pips for the day then the chances of being able to pick up some pips are much higher.

I usually quickly check on Thursday nights how much of the AWR (average weekly range) currencies have done to give me an idea of what may happen on Friday e.g. A/U and Loonie had only done half their average weekly range on Thursday and they were at the bottom of the range so that said to me that the chances of those pairs going higher were good to complete their average weekly ranges. A/U did indeed break higher but CAD employment data was disappointing so it was unable to break forcefully below parity. Cable had also only done half it's AWR and it was near the top of it's range so the chances of Cable going higher on Friday were good and it did. And I do the same thing a couple of days before month end just to give me an outlook on where I think currencies will end and what the best currencies to trade would be.

I hope this makes sense.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,675
  • Apr 10, 2010 2:55pm Apr 10, 2010 2:55pm
Quoting Patience
Hi Victory83

Here's an explanation of how you can use ATR with your trading http://forex-indicators.net/volatility-indicators/atr

I just generally keep track of daily, weekly and monthly average ranges though. For example, if A/U's daily average for the last 60 days is 100 pips and I sit down at my computer and see that it's already done 95 pips by 1.00 pm London time (8.00 am NY time) then the probability of it going much higher is pretty slim. Of course, it can go over it's daily ATR but if my charts are pointing up and it's only...
thank you so much
perfect explanation and thanks for link

wish you best
  • #1,676
  • Apr 10, 2010 7:45pm Apr 10, 2010 7:45pm
Shahab, Thanks for providing us with the answers to those questions I posted earlier. Most helpful!

Also, I am curious as to your TP for G/U. Why would you not want to target 1.5560 first since it provides some nice R?
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When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #1,677
  • Edited 2:10am Apr 11, 2010 2:00am | Edited 2:10am
Hi Shahab,
Thanks for the trading method..really appreciate the guidance you are providing here. I have a question and was hoping you could help with it.

In your latest update, you suggest that we buy UJ on dips. I looked up the yen globex chart (on timing charts) and I see the COT is stuck at 0. Shouldn't this mean JPY/USD is bottoming => USD/JPY is topping. In other words, shouldnt we be looking to short the pair since there seems to be future losses.

Let me know if I analyzed this wrong. Thanks and good luck with the exams.

Attaching the yen chart I was looking at.

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  • #1,678
  • Apr 11, 2010 9:45am Apr 11, 2010 9:45am
Quoting aragorn123
Hi Shahab,
Thanks for the trading method..really appreciate the guidance you are providing here. I have a question and was hoping you could help with it.

In your latest update, you suggest that we buy UJ on dips. I looked up the yen globex chart (on timing charts) and I see the COT is stuck at 0. Shouldn't this mean JPY/USD is bottoming => USD/JPY is topping. In other words, shouldnt we be looking to short the pair since there seems to be future losses.

Let me know if I analyzed this wrong. Thanks and good luck with the exams.

Attaching the yen...
hi there, take a look at these posts,
#784
#1060
#1158

in summary when there is a trend change, net positioning is changing form long to short or visa versa, and that makes COT index (13 week) extreme
there is a difference between extreme due to overcrowding and trend change.
  • #1,679
  • Apr 11, 2010 9:51am Apr 11, 2010 9:51am
Quoting MarcVUM
Shahab, Thanks for providing us with the answers to those questions I posted earlier. Most helpful!

Also, I am curious as to your TP for G/U. Why would you not want to target 1.5560 first since it provides some nice R?
Hi Marc,

I didn't make a trade call, you can TP on any R/S, I still don't have weekly Pivot S/R on my chart (it will be updated when the market starts) so there are important too.

I said 1.5650 due to the pattern I thought of, there is good chance that it gets R at 1.5550-60 , and reverse or head higher.

to sum up; I think G/U will go up, but it will reverse somewhere below 1.58 ish , take a look at my chart
  • #1,680
  • Apr 11, 2010 12:47pm Apr 11, 2010 12:47pm
hi guys,

i stumbled across this thread when i was trying to learn more on COT. my short story is that i lost 50k trying to short audusd for all the wrong reasons. am trying to recover it back with my 2k left. am doing a lot of reading etc so that i dont repeat my mistakes again. hopefully this time i should be on top of audusd.
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