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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #1,561
  • Apr 9, 2010 9:27am Apr 9, 2010 9:27am
Quoting shahab8b
you guys do you have a gap on E/U and U/chf?
my charts are messed up

Yes on both here
  • #1,562
  • Apr 9, 2010 9:28am Apr 9, 2010 9:28am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
you guys do you have a gap on E/U and U/chf?
my charts are messed up
I do have it as well... also cable..
seems the FxPro feed messed up.
(My other brokers don't show it)
Just loaded the historical data..seems those numbers are really missing from them.
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #1,563
  • Apr 9, 2010 9:29am Apr 9, 2010 9:29am
Is anyone still holding a CAD long?
  • #1,564
  • Apr 9, 2010 9:30am Apr 9, 2010 9:30am
I don't know about you guys but this market today is so crazy to trade
  • #1,565
  • Apr 9, 2010 9:31am Apr 9, 2010 9:31am
Quoting kimd
Is anyone still holding a CAD long?
yes I do
  • #1,566
  • Apr 9, 2010 9:33am Apr 9, 2010 9:33am
yeah, it's kinda scary trading.

Interesting the pound and aussie are rising against the USD , and the CAD is getting weaker, which is good news for me. Been holding it a few days now.
  • #1,567
  • Apr 9, 2010 9:33am Apr 9, 2010 9:33am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
I don't know about you guys but this market today is so crazy to trade
I agree.. thought still something wrong with the price-feed
but it is really goin like that... pretty nervous up and down
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #1,568
  • Apr 9, 2010 9:33am Apr 9, 2010 9:33am
I am out with 2 huge loss making weeks :-(




Quoting shahab8b
I don't know about you guys but this market today is so crazy to trade
  • #1,569
  • Apr 9, 2010 9:34am Apr 9, 2010 9:34am
Quoting puks
On a clear break of .9330 (15M candle close above), I will enter long AUD with 1st TP at .9406 and second tp at .9500.

If the entry doesn't get filled so be it but I WILL NEVER SHORT AUD.

You can short everything else but AUD.
come on.... shorting aud was good a year ago. eur/aud went from 1.61 to 2.10
5,000 pips , and never short aud? ok!
oh, i forgot, it was good this year too, from .93 to .88 and .86, trend is changing man. EMA's are beginning to point down. You think forever and ever AUD going up? ok....
  • #1,570
  • Apr 9, 2010 9:35am Apr 9, 2010 9:35am
Fitch just cut Greece's outlook to negative. I guess that was the spike down but I don't have a gap. The Vix is still at 16.20. It seems everybody is expecting indice downside ..... lots of options (or whatever it is) being bought for a spike to happen in Vix.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,571
  • Apr 9, 2010 9:35am Apr 9, 2010 9:35am
Quoting kimd
yeah, it's kinda scary trading.

Interesting the pound and aussie are rising against the USD , and the CAD is getting weaker, which is good news for me. Been holding it a few days now.
to my observation CAD moves before AUD, it means A/U will come down finally
  • #1,572
  • Apr 9, 2010 9:39am Apr 9, 2010 9:39am
Quoting Clouds
come on.... shorting aud was good a year ago. eur/aud went from 1.61 to 2.10
5,000 pips , and never short aud? ok!
oh, i forgot, it was good this year too, from .93 to .88 and .86
I am not arguing but shorting that pair has never worked for me. consider me superstitious or whatever but I will short other pairs. there are plenty of pairs out there in the market.

Fundamentally we are much stronger than EZ, UK and US so why short? I'll buy dips.
  • #1,573
  • Apr 9, 2010 9:43am Apr 9, 2010 9:43am
Quoting Patience
Fitch just cut Greece's outlook to negative. I guess that was the spike down but I don't have a gap. The Vix is still at 16.20. It seems everybody is expecting indice downside ..... lots of options (or whatever it is) being bought for a spike to happen in Vix.
thanx for the info, I'm trying to close all in green and call it a week, it has been a wonderful week (over 1000 pips in my account including scalping) so I don't like to finish with a disaster
  • #1,574
  • Apr 9, 2010 9:45am Apr 9, 2010 9:45am
today I'm conservative I closed all U/Cad longs with tiny profit
  • #1,575
  • Apr 9, 2010 9:46am Apr 9, 2010 9:46am
Quoting puks
I am not arguing but shorting that pair has never worked for me. consider me superstitious or whatever but I will short other pairs. there are plenty of pairs out there in the market.

Fundamentally we are much stronger than EZ, UK and US so why short? I'll buy dips.
what changed fundamentally from 1995 to now? just curious. the reason aud gained past seven years was cause of the usd. if a smaller currency does well against the usd, they tend to do better than other currencies also, because when aud/usd changes 100 pips it changes a bigger % than a 100 pip move with a less %..

eur/aud was 1.44 in 1997, and 2.08 in 1998, and 1.60 in 2007, and 2.08 in 2008, and 1.44 in 2010....

currencies go up and down, they aren't like stocks, where they go in 1 direction for 100 years....
  • #1,576
  • Apr 9, 2010 9:50am Apr 9, 2010 9:50am
Quoting puks
I am not arguing but shorting that pair has never worked for me. consider me superstitious or whatever but I will short other pairs. there are plenty of pairs out there in the market.

Fundamentally we are much stronger than EZ, UK and US so why short? I'll buy dips.
I understand your point, I had took long A/U before as you know, but you need to know where to short where to long, and keep RRR in place , shorting on a R and taking long at a S is usually safe if you play with the rules
  • #1,577
  • Apr 9, 2010 9:51am Apr 9, 2010 9:51am
Agree -

Right at this point in time, and until such time Fed is confident in US recovery, I am bullish in AUD.

If china story ends, bubble bursts, i will become bearish on AUD but that aint gonna happen overnight and so my current bias remains valid.

cheers


Quoting Clouds
what changed fundamentally from 1995 to now? just curious. the reason aud gained past seven years was cause of the usd. if a smaller currency does well against the usd, they tend to do better than other currencies also, because when aud/usd changes 100 pips it changes a bigger % than a 100 pip move with a less %..

eur/aud was 1.44 in 1997, and 2.08 in 1998, and 1.60 in 2007, and 2.08 in 2008, and 1.44 in 2010....

currencies go up and down, they aren't like stocks, where they go in 1 direction for 100 years....
  • #1,578
  • Apr 9, 2010 9:54am Apr 9, 2010 9:54am
short gold at 1159 finally , this is my last trade of the day
  • #1,579
  • Apr 9, 2010 9:55am Apr 9, 2010 9:55am
Quoting shahab8b
thanx for the info, I'm trying to close all in green and call it a week, it has been a wonderful week (over 1000 pips in my account including scalping) so I don't like to finish with a disaster
Yeah, it's messy today. CAD employment data threw a spanner in the works. It's just the timing of when this correction will take place. I'm wary at these levels although I have been scalping A/J long, but with Vix at 16, I'll be ready to change my bias at a moment's notice.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,580
  • Apr 9, 2010 9:56am Apr 9, 2010 9:56am
Quoting shahab8b
short gold at 1159 finally , this is my last trade of the day
who is in?
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