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Silent Service Method

  • #7,881
  • Apr 8, 2010 9:10pm Apr 8, 2010 9:10pm
Good evening traders,

We finally have a A+ set up in the commodities...soybeans that is...the monster of the grain markets.

The chart is May beans with a huge pennant formation and the kicker is the very tight channel of the last few weeks.

The bean boys are up to something and I'm sure the move is going to be huge.

Up or down I could'nt care...as Chris always says...we have to reACT to the situation.

Keep it on your radar and I will keep you updated with charts.


good hunting,

golferfx
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  • #7,882
  • Apr 8, 2010 10:50pm Apr 8, 2010 10:50pm
Quoting jharvey407
Hey Guys... The first is the GBP wk. I put my lines of S/R, and then highlighted the area that I am looking at now with the blue box. I want to make sure I understand this method.

The second chart is the GBP 4hr with a couple of arrows...
Just a glance from your chart on G/U I see price level 1.52 getting "used and abused" (a lot of loading/unloading positions or transactions) but when price goes, it should go with conviction! So on the 4hr chart you have a box pattern forming and whenever price does breakout that box, should be a clue to its direction ... probably good for a couple hundred pips either way. It may form a pin after that b/c this kind of action is like the step before a pin is made.
  • #7,883
  • Apr 8, 2010 11:16pm Apr 8, 2010 11:16pm
Hi Guyz/Galz,

Just wanted to find out if there traders on this Thread using Alpari UK?

If yes, do you mind sharing your experience with them? I notice they have FX & CFDs and i am really keen to open a live account with them. Also, the Internet has some real interesting stuff, i read something negative on the internet about them and i wanted to confirm based on users comments and experience.

cheers all...........nice weekend
  • #7,884
  • Apr 9, 2010 12:35am Apr 9, 2010 12:35am
Quoting Danku
Hi Guyz/Galz,

Just wanted to find out if there traders on this Thread using Alpari UK?

If yes, do you mind sharing your experience with them? I notice they have FX & CFDs and i am really keen to open a live account with them. Also, the Internet has some real interesting stuff, i read something negative on the internet about them and i wanted to confirm based on users comments and experience.

cheers all...........nice weekend
Thanks all for the above comments about my chfjpy trade, taken on board.

Danku, I use a micro account with Alpari UK and they are as good as any but I only trade forex, I think you need a bigger account to trade cfds.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #7,885
  • Edited 6:44am Apr 9, 2010 3:23am | Edited 6:44am
Quoting clockwork71
Let me state that the title is no in reference to the author or poster of this article...it is a replay to the idea that since Trichet says Greece is in reasonable shape and everything is rosy, the EUR gains? Uh hello.....what is he supposed to say? The truth?

But notice the sheep....following every word he says, thinking (or not) that the world is fine. Please.

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=230480
A sovereign debt default is precisely what the U.S. is also starting to come to terms with for itself; not fun but reality. I mean, hell, Social Security alone is over 107 trillion dollars in debt... over 107 TRILLION $! Definitely not a fun statistic and definitely not on the news. Yet the Fed continues to print money like porn's going out of style.

Hmm, brings to mind them famous last words, "Let's shoot white-out til we black-out!"

Europe is just the first to get extensive media coverage of such a mass scale devaluation - of entire countries - not just a collapsing subprime mortgage market! Let alone a currency... And, speaking of currency, even as I write this Gold is making a noticeable climb on its way to $1,162/oz.. If it gets there, and clears it, we're probably going to see a retest of the $1,200ish highs in the near future.

Edit: The best suggestion I've heard to date in taking actual measures to resolve the Greek Sovereign Debt Default crisis is one I read in the March issue of Currency Trader Magazine @ www.currencytradermag.com (a free online resource). Summed-up in a paragraph, "There’s only one way the Eurozone can bail out Greece without losing reserve-currency aspirations: invent a new kind of Euro-bond with an explicit pan-EMU guarantee. This would prove the Eurozone has the institutional inventiveness to compete with the U.S.. As a practical matter, the EMU can’t hope to become the reserve currency until it has a bond market rivaling the U.S. bond market, anyway. The currently fragmented market for national bonds in Europe lacks depth, breadth, and variety." ~ C.T.M., Mar.'10, pg. 16
  • #7,886
  • Apr 9, 2010 6:53am Apr 9, 2010 6:53am
hey golfer

PM me when u decide to trade your usual 10 millions contracts . i want to be on your side .
samer

PS : nice chart as usual my friend



Quoting golferfx
Good evening traders,

We finally have a A+ set up in the commodities...soybeans that is...the monster of the grain markets.

The chart is May beans with a huge pennant formation and the kicker is the very tight channel of the last few weeks.

The bean boys are up to something and I'm sure the move is going to be huge.

Up or down I could'nt care...as Chris always says...we have to reACT to the situation.

Keep it on your radar and I will keep you updated with charts.


good hunting,

golferfx
  • #7,887
  • Apr 9, 2010 6:58am Apr 9, 2010 6:58am
Dan

i have been live with alpari for more than 2 years now , i have never ever had any problem with them . deposit and withdraw are fast . and execution is very good too , i have live account with ( fxdd , ibfx , fxcm , and others , and the best one is alpari )
but still my prefered broker is ATC BROKERS
samer


Quoting Danku
Hi Guyz/Galz,

Just wanted to find out if there traders on this Thread using Alpari UK?

If yes, do you mind sharing your experience with them? I notice they have FX & CFDs and i am really keen to open a live account with them. Also, the Internet has some real interesting stuff, i read something negative on the internet about them and i wanted to confirm based on users comments and experience.

cheers all...........nice weekend
  • #7,888
  • Apr 9, 2010 7:21am Apr 9, 2010 7:21am
Quoting Soca
Just a glance from your chart on G/U I see price level 1.52 getting "used and abused" (a lot of loading/unloading positions or transactions) but when price goes, it should go with conviction! So on the 4hr chart you have a box pattern forming and whenever price does breakout that box, should be a clue to its direction ... probably good for a couple hundred pips either way. It may form a pin after that b/c this kind of action is like the step before a pin is made.
Could you please post a chart with the 'box' illustrated for clarity. I'm not quite sure I understand exactly what you are describing. I'm still learing all of the terms and signals.

Thanks,
James
  • #7,889
  • Edited 8:44am Apr 9, 2010 8:19am | Edited 8:44am
Quoting jharvey407
Could you please post a chart with the 'box' illustrated for clarity...
Attached is a revised version of your chart to illustrate the "box" pattern I noticed and wrote about earlier. As you can see, on your current chart, price has clearly broken through its upper-bound for over 100 pips since - in other words "with conviction!"

And what I meant by saying "price level 1.52" was being "used and abused" comes from the premise that the more a respective support/resistance level is crossed, the "weaker" it becomes in terms of exerting influence on the spot price. This is b/c a sufficient number of buyers/sellers have loaded/unloaded their position "in a trade" and the "market moves" to facilitate the next "price level" of trade at any given moment. And that's all price action essentially is...

So @ 1.52 there was a substantial exchange of buying/selling occurring and once it was over, whoever was left moved the market. In this case it was the buyers, willing to buy higher and sellers waiting to "sell high," whom eventually filled the buyer's' orders. Price begins to slow and either consolidate, resume, retrace or reverse its trend - depending on your perspective or "timeframe" in technical terms. Sellers finally became the majority and thus "moved price" down to where anew buy order(s) are waiting to be filled or "bought low."

George... I mean, umm, some "samersoros" might slightly disagree with me for misaligning you and say the real objective is to "buy high and sell higher!" Anyway, I'm not used to explaining it but I hope that clarifies how I saw what was happening a bit more for you; good trading!
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  • #7,890
  • Apr 9, 2010 8:40am Apr 9, 2010 8:40am
Thanks samer960.............this makes my weekend..................will think about it this weekend and make a decision on moving to Alpari........cheers...............why do you prefer ATC Brokers..........what is it they have that Alpari dont have?

Ok guyz/galz............the booze is calling me and i have to answer the call.................

Quoting samer960
Dan

i have been live with alpari for more than 2 years now , i have never ever had any problem with them . deposit and withdraw are fast . and execution is very good too , i have live account with ( fxdd , ibfx , fxcm , and others , and the best one is alpari )
but still my prefered broker is ATC BROKERS
samer
  • #7,891
  • Apr 9, 2010 8:50am Apr 9, 2010 8:50am
Quoting Soca
Attached is a revised version of your chart to illustrate the "box" pattern I noticed and wrote about earlier. As you can see, on your current chart, price has clearly broken through its upper-bound for over 100 pips since - in other words "with conviction!"

And what I meant by saying "price level 1.52" was being "used and abused" comes from the premise that the more a respective support/resistance level is crossed, the "weaker" it becomes in terms of exerting influence on the spot price. This is b/c a sufficient number of buyers/sellers...

You are also trading at the top pivot of a bigger "box" (around 1.52 or 1.53) which has a lower pivot in the 1.48 area.

If you are keen on closing incrementally you could hold 1/4 or 1/3 of the contracts to see if it will take a bigger run out of the small box to the bottom of the big box, or look for reentry (depending on style).
  • #7,892
  • Apr 9, 2010 8:54am Apr 9, 2010 8:54am
Quoting Danku
Ok guyz/galz............the booze is calling me and i have to answer the call.................
  • #7,893
  • Apr 9, 2010 9:19am Apr 9, 2010 9:19am
Quoting Soca
Attached is a revised version of your chart to illustrate the "box" pattern I noticed and wrote about earlier.
Thanks for the illustration, it was very helpful. I see now that the price has moved out of the box to the upsided and has tested the box top as support.

I guess this begs the question, what would constitute a 'long' signal? Should we be looking for a PIN bar to form above support?

I am still reading the thread. I am on page 89, so I still don't have a complete grasp of the method. Although my last trade was a EUR short, which I entered on one of my signals, but used CW's stop management to pull 145 pips out of the market. Thank you all.
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  • #7,894
  • Apr 9, 2010 9:40am Apr 9, 2010 9:40am
One to watch..................guyz/galz................
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  • #7,895
  • Edited 10:31am Apr 9, 2010 9:57am | Edited 10:31am
Quoting TraderDavo
You are also trading at the top pivot of a bigger "box" (around 1.52 or 1.53) which has a lower pivot in the 1.48 area...
Yeah, I see the bigger box; good point.

I don't know... There were mostly stronger numbers out of Britain this week, such as the PMI, HPI and PPI e.g.. The U.S. and Eurozone too, yet w/a monetary difference being the GBP interest rate is .25% higher than the U.S.... The Euro's .75% higher... Greek's still in deep water...

(Maybe they ought get a clue and read my recent post and try out the advice from the Currency Trader Magazine before going balls-out into another bailout! Haha... Well?)

While price is clearing north the 50% retrace from last year's swings, it is right up against a massively influential diagonal TL from late 2007, shown in the chart below. (Thanks to MT4 and not Oanda this time.) This is a bigger deal to look at methinks from a technical perspective...

To go Long from here would be a countertrend trade for sure!
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  • #7,896
  • Apr 9, 2010 10:43am Apr 9, 2010 10:43am
the spread with ATC IS GREAT , gj is less than 3 pip ,ej is 1.5 pip . there is a commission but still it is much better than having a higher spread , ATC are true ECN . and u can be all the time in chat with support in case u need anything . they give u a software and u can chat with support anytime .
have a great week end
samer

Quoting Danku
Thanks samer960.............this makes my weekend..................will think about it this weekend and make a decision on moving to Alpari........cheers...............why do you prefer ATC Brokers..........what is it they have that Alpari dont have?

Ok guyz/galz............the booze is calling me and i have to answer the call.................
  • #7,897
  • Apr 9, 2010 11:17am Apr 9, 2010 11:17am
Quoting Danku
One to watch..................guyz/galz................
And the 38.2 retrace, weekly pivot and the MA200 on H4 are adding onto the hope for a turnaround letting my short survive.

Stefan.
10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
  • #7,898
  • Apr 9, 2010 11:22am Apr 9, 2010 11:22am
Hey samer...if I had your money I'd burn mine !!!

Let me know when you plunge the pound !!



love ya man,


golfer
  • #7,899
  • Edited 11:34am Apr 9, 2010 11:22am | Edited 11:34am
Quoting jharvey407
Thanks for the illustration, it was very helpful. I see now that the price has moved out of the box to the upsided and has tested the box top as support.

I guess this begs the question, what would constitute a 'long' signal? Should we be looking for a PIN bar to form above support?
Congrats on that trade; it should give you some get-up gumption to persist in learning more with this method and your own trading career.

Now, technically what you're looking at is a pin but this is where it gets a little more advanced, I think. If you look to the previous high there at 1.5380 or so, you'll notice that our 4H candle today closed just below that previous high. So, from that timeframe and on the conservative side, I'd say not until price closed above it would it start to qualify as a Long/Buy signal. However, it wouldn't necessarily have to be a textbook pin but it could be a pull back into the previous pin, again by proxy when looking further back in history to a time where 1.54 was a bottom or support level (Feb. 18).

In other words, price may also "convert" from this one pin to another in the opposite direction, in that zone and carry-on upwards... Time will tell.

So again, it's your perspective, or respective TF that in part determines what qualifies as a pin or no. In terms of the Silent Service Method, it's usually a pinbar on both the 4H and Daily TF or above that qualifies as a signal to buy/sell, if I recall(!) Have at least two reasons to enter a trade. In this case it's S/R and a pin, plus a fib that's just below us now - all counts.

Next it would be prudent to back out on the TFs and notice what I just posted in regards to the "market structure" or environment just north of here. Should price break through that trendline it would have to be swift and substantial for me to justify getting in on a pullback. Plus, since it is countertrend, I'd be following my stop more closely on a shorter TF than a 4H - say a 1H or even a 15M instead - because the market could come back harder given the circumstances. (It usually does on the climb-up more often than going-down in my experience.)

I realize that was just one or maybe two ways to answer your question. I'll leave it open for others to chime-in, not to mention I have other things to do right now, like sleep As I'm writing this Gold just whacked through $1162/oz.. It's getting interesting...
  • #7,900
  • Apr 9, 2010 11:35am Apr 9, 2010 11:35am
I realize that was just one or maybe two ways to answer your question. I'll leave it open for others to chime-in, not to mention I have other things to do right now, like sleep As I'm writing this Gold just whacked through $1162/oz.. It's getting interesting...[/quote]


Hey jHarvey,

My humble 2 cents....keep it simple...trade the trend...CT trading is for the gunslingers...someone always gets killed.

Plan your trade from the big charts and just keep buying/selling those pullbacks...much easier.



Great weekend all,


golferfx
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