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Silent Service Method

  • #7,861
  • Apr 7, 2010 2:51pm Apr 7, 2010 2:51pm
Eurgbp 250 pips up now (185 locked in)

I'm loving this thread more and more.

I've opened an account with activtrades, cfds and some exotics with not too high a spread. I'll let you know how it pans out.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #7,862
  • Apr 7, 2010 5:41pm Apr 7, 2010 5:41pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
Eurgbp 250 pips up now (185 locked in)

I'm loving this thread more and more.

I've opened an account with activtrades, cfds and some exotics with not too high a spread. I'll let you know how it pans out.

Yeah, please do....a lot of the guys from around the world would like to know how they pan out.

Great trade.
  • #7,863
  • Apr 7, 2010 7:02pm Apr 7, 2010 7:02pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
Thanks for the tips on cad/jpy and the broker.

I think I have looked at ODL and they are Russians? I'll have to recheck, I'd prefer something FSA or US regulated (no offence if you are Russian, still...). I have found a company called activtrades who offer a good range of things to trade but on the demo account the feed only goes back a year or so so I can't really put weekly s/r levels on it. I don't know if it's the same on their live feed? I had the idea of just finding the levels from another chart provider, java if necessary, and plotting...

The CHFJPY could be considered a range trade, not a bad idea. In fact that pair is great for range trading......

IB charts are HORRIBLE. It's the one complaint I have against them
  • #7,864
  • Apr 7, 2010 7:10pm Apr 7, 2010 7:10pm
Quoting jharvey407
Hey guys,

I just started reading this thread. I am on page 16 now, and I intend to read the entire thread.

I just wanted to thank everyone for the time and effort.

I am just starting to trade again, after taking a long break. As look back over my trading history most of the best trades were long TF trades. That is what I am concentrating on now, so I expect this thread to be very useful.

Thanks
JH
I have found that there are 2 main factors in losses: (for me at least.)

Short time frames

And anticipating a move, instead of reacting to one.

Welcome JH, and if you need anything, just PM me.

Chris
  • #7,865
  • Apr 7, 2010 10:01pm Apr 7, 2010 10:01pm
Looks like the S&P500 might be running out of steam.....

This week's close could be fairly important. (Weekly chart)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,866
  • Apr 8, 2010 3:12am Apr 8, 2010 3:12am
Eyeing Gold, some of the Yen crosses and the E/U, which is hovering round 1.3300 at moment - all looking to go.

Most, if not all the majors are at crucial levels this morning, what with interest rate announcements due out of Europe and Britain in a few hours as well.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xAU:uSD Daily.jpg Size: 104 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gBP:jPY Daily.jpg Size: 93 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: uSD:jPY Daily.jpg Size: 85 KB
  • #7,867
  • Apr 8, 2010 5:43am Apr 8, 2010 5:43am
Also looking at Alpari. Only problem the have 29 Pairs esp afew that trend nicely.

And by the way, just took a CT long on gbpusd.......IB Fakey Setup from 8hr TF........CHEERS

Quoting clockwork71
Yeah, please do....a lot of the guys from around the world would like to know how they pan out.

Great trade.
  • #7,868
  • Apr 8, 2010 6:52am Apr 8, 2010 6:52am
Danku - just remember you are going counter trend, and you should be fine. 1.58 should be a brick wall that will be tough if you get there.
  • #7,869
  • Apr 8, 2010 6:53am Apr 8, 2010 6:53am
Quoting Soca
Eyeing Gold, some of the Yen crosses and the E/U, which is hovering round 1.3300 at moment - all looking to go.

Most, if not all the majors are at crucial levels this morning, what with interest rate announcements due out of Europe and Britain in a few hours as well.

Agreed on the Euro....I think it's getting ready to go as well. We will see, I am hoping to come home to big profits later.....or I should say - more profits on my short.
  • #7,870
  • Edited 8:03am Apr 8, 2010 7:11am | Edited 8:03am
I don't mean to detract from the thread/method/theme but while on topic of choosing brokers, especially for those prospecting U.S. based brokerages and/or not beholden to mere sentiment when choosing a broker, let me briefly advise to go to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (C.F.T.C.) website for some numbers as part of your search. (The broker's actual, capital reserve numbers, i.e..)

The reason, simple: To get more assurance that even if one's broker became insolvent one could legally verify and leverage this information, should it go to a court of law - in order to get most, if not all of your money - back!

With interest!

Won't be long and don't plan on making it a discussion or argument ... and if you don't know or care already, I promise I won't try to make your eyes glaze over just to stay on point here but this is what I have:

The C.F.T.C. puts out a monthly financial report listing the financial data that was submitted in the previous month by firms under their regulation. In other words, firms or "Brokerages" become "Futures Commission Merchants" or F.C.M.s, who are required to declare the net capital reserve they have on-hand relative to the minimum capital requirement imposed by the C.F.T.C., among other things I won't go into here.

Now why that's worth repeating and restating is because I needed more information about whom I'm entrusting my money with when depositing it in a trade account! So chalk-it-up to due diligence. That the majority of brokers are not part of an actual bank, nor are they equal by operational means, should go w/o saying. And knowing full well anything could happen, even if that meant my broker could become insolvent for one reason or another, I dug in and began looking for the hard numbers. And these are the questions I had answered by the C.F.T.C. financial report I read at-the-time which gave me just that little bit more assurance:

1) Is this broker even on the list 2) What's their "net capital requirement" [column "c"] and 3) What's their actual "excess net capital" [column "d"]?

That's it. I could send my money w/a little less anxiety than normal and as a result of that experience, will never put my money w/a brokerage that isn't on that list! Period. Quite regardless of what some may think about "regulation."

Attached to this post is a copy of a financial report from the C.F.T.C. for the month of March. Hope it helps anyone who comes across it and thanks for your time in reading this side note on this outstanding thread! Otherwise I'd deduce that there's comparable agencies like the U.S. C.F.T.C. in other 1st-world countries, who would have information like this on brokerages and other influential financial firms based in their country.

The exact web address for the reports' archive: http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/Fi...FCMs/index.htm
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf fcmdata0210.pdf   43 KB | 232 downloads
  • #7,871
  • Apr 8, 2010 10:01am Apr 8, 2010 10:01am
Quoting clockwork71
Agreed on the Euro....I think it's getting ready to go as well. We will see, I am hoping to come home to big profits later.....or I should say - more profits on my short.
So, eur down, gbp up... Sounds good to me with my eurgbp short!

It has reacted a little to the long term upwards trendline but I don't think it's a strong trendline (this is the third touch) and I've got 200 pips locked in now so I'm happy to let it ride.

Clockwork, one question, I notice when I'm moving my stop behind the resistance on the 4 hour timeframe that this equates to the high of the previous days price action, is this too tight? I always leave at least 50 pips space between the stop loss and the price. I'm thinking eurgbp usually only moves about 80 pips in a whole day.

The other thing I am wondering about is that as we are approaching the 86 level is it wiser to trail the stop tightly behind the 4 hour as above or give it a chance to bounce from 86 a few times to see whether it breaks through but only after some consolidation? Part of me wants to trail tighter because of the approaching support so I don't give too much away and the other part wants to relax, leave the stop loss at 200 pips and let it do what it's going to do. Sorry if this seems similar to my last trailing question.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #7,872
  • Apr 8, 2010 11:19am Apr 8, 2010 11:19am
Quoting clockwork71
I have found that there are 2 main factors in losses: (for me at least.)

Short time frames

And anticipating a move, instead of reacting to one.

Welcome JH, and if you need anything, just PM me.

Chris
Thanks Chris,

I agree with both of your statements. I am learing PA and I am also learning how to let a trade ride.

I am currently short EUR/USD. I have been in the trade for 5 days, I have 155 pips locked with a stop just above the last 'area' on the 4hr. I think there is still room for some more downside, so I am going to follow your stop theory and see what I get from the market.

JH
  • #7,873
  • Apr 8, 2010 12:08pm Apr 8, 2010 12:08pm
Thanks Chris,

It worked out fine......i knew where it would find the first trouble area and placed my T/P at 1.5271...........not bad for a quickie +63pips on a CT trade..............am done for the week guyz/galz.........been a good week......cheers all..............

Quoting clockwork71
Danku - just remember you are going counter trend, and you should be fine. 1.58 should be a brick wall that will be tough if you get there.
  • #7,874
  • Apr 8, 2010 2:10pm Apr 8, 2010 2:10pm
I took this trade not long after the close of the last 4 hour candle. To me it looks like pretty clear price action at a pretty strong trendline support level (bit worried it's trendline and not horizontal significant round number). The daily is lining up for a nice reversal candle. The 4 hour shows a higher close reversal. UsdChf is at a resistance level (or at least a decent trendline) and most of the other jpy pairs are reversing in a similar pattern which would give me confidence in a chfjpy reversal. I've put a 100 pip stop loss (just below the swing low) and a 200 pip take profit on it (the next resistance and a handy 1:2 risk/reward)(having thoughts about just getting to break even and seeing if it runs further but I've got time to work that one out in my head).

I've attached charts.

I wonder if anyone could comment on this trade and tell me if they took it or would have taken it if you had seen it? (lol)

I really would welcome any helpful comments about my thinking behind this trade, whether it works out well or not. Thanks.

Just heard that Malcom Mclaren has died
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chfjpy 4 hour.gif Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: chfjpy daily.gif Size: 33 KB
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #7,875
  • Apr 8, 2010 3:05pm Apr 8, 2010 3:05pm
Quoting jharvey407
Thanks Chris,

I agree with both of your statements. I am learing PA and I am also learning how to let a trade ride.

I am currently short EUR/USD. I have been in the trade for 5 days, I have 155 pips locked with a stop just above the last 'area' on the 4hr. I think there is still room for some more downside, so I am going to follow your stop theory and see what I get from the market.

JH
That my friend, is all you can really do.
  • #7,876
  • Apr 8, 2010 3:13pm Apr 8, 2010 3:13pm
I have not even had the chance to look at the charts, so I may look a bit wankish, who knows?

But this is the first thing I thought when I saw the chart.
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  • #7,877
  • Apr 8, 2010 3:15pm Apr 8, 2010 3:15pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
I've attached charts.

I wonder if anyone could comment on this trade and tell me if they took it or would have taken it if you had seen it? (lol)

I really would welcome any helpful comments about my thinking behind this trade, whether it works out well or not. Thanks.
I'll give you a different take on the set-up, but it's always safest to trust yourself and not let other people talk you into or out of a trade.

The first thing I see is that your SR lines look a lot like mine, yet you're taking a trade from the middle, based on what I would consider to be minor trendlines. Secondly the weekly is currently a bearish outside bar, and the last 2 weeks look a lot like a one big pin bar. Tomorrow could change that, but it's something to be aware of nonetheless.

Clearly the yen pairs have set up because the usdjpy pinned, but if you look at the other pairings, I think there's more opportunity elsewhere.

Personally I'm leaning towards the eurjpy or the gbpjpy, because of the way their usd components are shaping up. Because the eur, gbp, and jpy versus the usd are quoted, if you find the yen going one way and the other going the other, these two pairs will often just go sideways. However because of that when both sides of the cross pair go up or down together against the usd, either of these will churn in terms of pips. That volatility does require larger stops, but in my opinion, it will likely be worth it. Also the gbpjpy and eurjpy are sitting on SR not between it.

So, if it's a jpy pair you want, I would not choose the one you did. I will probably be going long the gbpjpy or eurjpy, since both ther gbp and eur are also showing bullish daily pins (though yes, a bit "traffic-y"), as is the usdjpy.

Just my 2 pips.
  • #7,878
  • Apr 8, 2010 3:18pm Apr 8, 2010 3:18pm
Let me state that the title is no in reference to the author or poster of this article...it is a replay to the idea that since Trichet says Greece is in reasonable shape and everything is rosy, the EUR gains? Uh hello.....what is he supposed to say? The truth?

But notice the sheep....following every word he says, thinking (or not) that the world is fine. Please.

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=230480
  • #7,879
  • Apr 8, 2010 6:42pm Apr 8, 2010 6:42pm
Hey Guys,

I am slowly working my way through this thread. I am upto page 56 now I think. I feel like I have finally found a group of traders that trade the way that I like to trade. I have been looking at the charts and trying to learn the signals. I would like your feedback on a couple of charts if you don't mind.

The first is the GBP wk. I put my lines of S/R, and then highlighted the area that I am looking at now with the blue box. I want to make sure I understand this method.

The second chart is the GBP 4hr with a couple of arrows pointing to PIN bars that I beleive are the signals that we are looking for.

Any comments?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp wk.gif Size: 45 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #7,880
  • Apr 8, 2010 7:20pm Apr 8, 2010 7:20pm
Quoting jharvey407
Hey Guys,

I am slowly working my way through this thread. I am upto page 56 now I think. I feel like I have finally found a group of traders that trade the way that I like to trade. I have been looking at the charts and trying to learn the signals. I would like your feedback on a couple of charts if you don't mind.

The first is the GBP wk. I put my lines of S/R, and then highlighted the area that I am looking at now with the blue box. I want to make sure I understand this method.

The second chart is the GBP 4hr with a couple of arrows pointing...
In and of itself, I like the lines in general. My chart is as follows:

Major - 1.48, 1.58, 1.68
Minor - 1.53, 1.63

There are others, but I am answering via my phone. This is the area in the proximity of your chart....

Chris
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