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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #6,241
  • Apr 8, 2010 12:20am Apr 8, 2010 12:20am
Quoting Custos
Well, as you maybe know I used to first take off half at R:R 1:1 and then use the extension of the swing as a target. ....
Hope that helps
Custos,

your input please: something I have been looking at, and really it is just looking at this stage, is if you catch a trend early, like the late Jan 2010 trends - you get in on Day/4hr level, "trail" your stop (on the 4hr / day TL / S/R's, manually/auto - whatever tickles your fancy) by +- 150 pips (or your ADR if it makes you happy) you stay in trades for really long time with lots of opportunity to add to positions.

In this case my thinking is that you would still enter with small SL, then once at BE and in profit, allow your trade to develop with the trend.

EG. EU, enter on 18 Jan 2010@ 1.43394 (or slighly earlier, depending on your trading style), stop would take you out only on 3 Feb 2010, allowing you opportunity to get back in 4 Feb 2010... with of course decision points on 1 or 2 Feb... allowing +400-500 on average...
  • #6,242
  • Apr 8, 2010 12:46am Apr 8, 2010 12:46am
Getting tight
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  • #6,243
  • Apr 8, 2010 1:02am Apr 8, 2010 1:02am
yeah, that's basically the idea. Also my inital stop is still ridiculously small. I wanna achieve the highest R:R possible. So even if I make 20 mistakes in a row, I am still in profit. And yes, I would let the trade develop with the trend and move stop to b/e. But I don't take off any of my lotsize anymore. I will let the whole position ride.
I attached a chart with your example of the 18 jan 2010 and the 3rd of feb. Now I would also add on more occasions and lower time-frames, but for clarity I only marked those two entries.
The trade of 18 jan 2010 would have been stopped out once it broked my initial trendline. However, I would have probably reentered at the 3rd of feb. Cause you can see another trendline at the highs of the last swing + a horizontal S/R level + probably a fib level. So that's how I would have played that. But I would definitely have added on other occasions as well.

Does that answer your question?
Quoting Paulette
Custos,

your input please:...
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  • #6,244
  • Apr 8, 2010 1:44am Apr 8, 2010 1:44am
Quoting Custos
yeah, that's basically the idea. Also my inital stop is still ridiculously small. I wanna achieve the highest R:R possible. So even if I make 20 mistakes in a row, I am still in profit. And yes, I would let the trade develop with the trend and move stop to b/e. But I don't take off any of my lotsize anymore. I will let the whole position ride.
I attached a chart with your example of the 18 jan 2010 and the 3rd of feb. Now I would also add on more occasions and lower time-frames, but for clarity I only marked those two entries.
The trade of 18 jan...
Yes thanx, exactly my line of thinking - entries on smaller TF confluences and then adding more on smaller TF's too...

Am starting to test it in demo, think I have now done enough paper trades and back testing...

Much appreciated
  • #6,245
  • Apr 8, 2010 7:03am Apr 8, 2010 7:03am
So many of these pairs are not coming close to the ADR this week for some reason, Not sure what to make of that...

--NM
  • #6,246
  • Apr 8, 2010 7:04am Apr 8, 2010 7:04am
Hi, please excuse my English, this method of trading is that I have worked for a while there are some things clear here that I have served me make it perfect. NightMoves thank you very much for all the things you've shared, I like working the chart settings in 4H and Figure 1H activation is the key to success in this method

Saludos.
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  • #6,247
  • Apr 8, 2010 7:30am Apr 8, 2010 7:30am
Quoting sistecno
Hi, please excuse my English, this method of trading is that I have worked for a while there are some things clear here that I have served me make it perfect. NightMoves thank you very much for all the things you've shared, I like working the chart settings in 4H and Figure 1H activation is the key to success in this method

Saludos.
HI Sistecno,
I am glad your finding this method useful. Its a pretty solid method of trading for sure. They key is patience and wait for the setups to complete, let the price come to you and it will.

I use the daily, H4 and H1 as my main time frames. I will use the weekly to define the longer term S/R levels, and then look for setups on the H4 and H1, but I have traded the 30 minute time frame too. I have had good success with it.

The smaller time frames to me are just not worth it unless your trying to scalp it works for that but I am not really looking for scalping trades, the longer I can stay in the trade the better.

--NM
  • #6,248
  • Apr 8, 2010 8:29am Apr 8, 2010 8:29am
USDCAD might be headed for another impulse to the down side....

--NM
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  • #6,249
  • Apr 9, 2010 4:50am Apr 9, 2010 4:50am
Hi Nightmoves,

I wished to say a big thank you for going to all the trouble you have in this thread, I have been following it for a week or so but am only starting to get into the start. I am completly new to forex trading (1 month) and hopefully by researching into this thread it can help me become clearer on decisve trends and stop me getting hit so foten. Out of intrest what are your thoughts on GJ at the moment, I got hit quite badly on what was a winning trade as i was 100 certain it would follow the trend down?

Thankfully Mack
  • #6,250
  • Apr 9, 2010 5:41am Apr 9, 2010 5:41am
Quoting Mackem
Hi Nightmoves,

I wished to say a big thank you for going to all the trouble you have in this thread, I have been following it for a week or so but am only starting to get into the start. I am completly new to forex trading (1 month) and hopefully by researching into this thread it can help me become clearer on decisve trends and stop me getting hit so foten. Out of intrest what are your thoughts on GJ at the moment, I got hit quite badly on what was a winning trade as i was 100 certain it would follow the trend down?

Thankfully Mack
HI Mackem,
The GJ imo is at the moment is not one that I would want to trade. It has been palying with daily resistance for awhile and there is no clear indication of which way it will go, it has been down trending on the longer time frames.

I would only be looking for short position on that pair, but again thats on the longer time frames, on the 4 hour TF it has been in an uptrend until recently when it started testing Daily resistance, I would back off that pair for awhile until it gives a clear indication of what it is going to do.

--NM
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  • #6,251
  • Apr 9, 2010 5:54am Apr 9, 2010 5:54am
Quoting Mackem
Hi Nightmoves,

I wished to say a big thank you for going to all the trouble you have in this thread, I have been following it for a week or so but am only starting to get into the start. I am completly new to forex trading (1 month) and hopefully by researching into this thread it can help me become clearer on decisve trends and stop me getting hit so foten. Out of intrest what are your thoughts on GJ at the moment, I got hit quite badly on what was a winning trade as i was 100 certain it would follow the trend down?

Thankfully Mack
Also if i zoom into the Daily chart it is still above the trend line, so I think it is best to wait and see if the down trend is going to pick up steam again.

--NM
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  • #6,252
  • Apr 9, 2010 6:12am Apr 9, 2010 6:12am
EURGBP is testing daily support...it is not a fast mover but a break below the support could be a nice slow profitable ride...

--NM
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  • #6,253
  • Apr 9, 2010 6:46am Apr 9, 2010 6:46am
Hello NightMoves,

at first thanks for your thread, it's very interesting. What do you think about EUR/USD pair?

Thanks a lot
  • #6,254
  • Apr 9, 2010 7:03am Apr 9, 2010 7:03am
Quoting rematrx
Hello NightMoves,

at first thanks for your thread, it's very interesting. What do you think about EUR/USD pair?

Thanks a lot
ON the EURUSD H4 I am seeing a triangle forming I wont get into it until it gets better organized. The trend is down but lately it has failed to make lower lows as a matter of fact it has made lower highs and higher lows, so again its one of those pairs that is in a limbo state imo. See the H4 chart I attached and you will see what I am talking about it just has no real direction at the moment. Inside that triangle it could go any direction...

--NM
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  • #6,255
  • Apr 9, 2010 7:28am Apr 9, 2010 7:28am
This is what I am seeing across the board on the FX currency index, strong pairs and weak pairs on each time frame.

--NM
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  • #6,256
  • Apr 9, 2010 7:54am Apr 9, 2010 7:54am
I'm trying to understand your trading method. You are only using the MA's for determination of trend direction and setting up your trades based on B-P-C. Is it correct?

Thanks
  • #6,257
  • Apr 9, 2010 11:40am Apr 9, 2010 11:40am
Quoting rematrx
I'm trying to understand your trading method. You are only using the MA's for determination of trend direction and setting up your trades based on B-P-C. Is it correct?

Thanks
Yes I use the MA's to determine the trend health so to speak, if the PA is harmonically swinging and not wildly banging off the MA lines then I consider it a real high probabilty trend with easy to define entries based off the S/R levels, if however the trend is at one moment swinging off the 30 MA then the next swing hits the 100 and the next hits the 50 and then back to the 100...etc that to me is too wild and risky even though it may be trending, trying to find the next impulse can be difficult at best.

I do not use the MA to locate entries, I use normal S/R levels, Round numbers, trend lines and fib levels, and the more you have to come together in one spot the better. Trend line breaks happen all the time and sometimes you need more than 1 trend line, if the trend is too steep then PA is too fast and best to wait for a retracement.

Scan multiple time frames and see where the trend looks the best, mark you major S/R levels on higher time frames and work your way down to the trend you are looking to trade.

I do not pay attention to the 23% fib imo that is not enough of a retracement. I like to see it between the 38 and 61 fib, it does not have to be exact but it should be in that window and then again a confluence of S/R must also be at the same spot.

Then I wait for a countertrend line breach and a pullback of the trend line on smaller time frames which we call the trigger chart, and then when the trend continues past the location where the pullback started then I place my entry a few pips away from that location and place my stop a few pips behind where the pullback stopped and the trend continued. Also the MA's have no meaning whatsoever on the trigger chart so they can be all messed up and its ok.

That make sense?


--NM
  • #6,258
  • Apr 9, 2010 11:48am Apr 9, 2010 11:48am
Quoting rematrx
I'm trying to understand your trading method. You are only using the MA's for determination of trend direction and setting up your trades based on B-P-C. Is it correct?

Thanks
One more thing to remember is the BPC Must break the trend line somewhere in its formation to be vaild, if it does not then the set up is not valid. And if the BPC happens with a few pips of a round number then there is a good possibilty the round number will cause a bounce, and it is best to wait for it to clear that round number(RN). Those RN's act like invisible barriers and horizontal S/R lines, and price will normally get kind kind of jumpy around those.

--NM
  • #6,259
  • Apr 9, 2010 11:57am Apr 9, 2010 11:57am
Quoting rematrx
I'm trying to understand your trading method. You are only using the MA's for determination of trend direction and setting up your trades based on B-P-C. Is it correct?

Thanks
Here is an example of the BPC on the 15 minute trigger chart this was a trade I took on the GBPJPY pair, the main trend is down and what I am looking for is a break of the retracement line and then a pullback to retest that line.

--NM
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  • #6,260
  • Apr 9, 2010 12:13pm Apr 9, 2010 12:13pm
Here is another example of the 1-2-3 at the end of a retracement...You can see where my entry was, it had crossed back below the down trend line coming in from the top left of the chart, broke the retracement trend line after it took a bounce off the RN ( grid line) and the bulls could not push it higher, and the bears pushed it below the retracment trend line. I waited until it cleared the RN before I placed my entry in case it took another bounce off that RN, if the RN is far enough way then no need to wait, but it was pretty close and a bounce could have sent it higher.
--NM
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