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Domino's Price and order flow trading

  • #441
  • Apr 9, 2010 3:47am Apr 9, 2010 3:47am
Quoting domino
pretty much I mean my hit rate is pretty good I believe but I dunno.. I mean in the past couple trades ive posted its been much faster time frame than I normally do.. I just closed this EJ long Im getting ready to post.. and I have a AU long still open.. stop at BE.. if BE's are counted as winners we are like 95% in this thread so far.. So good hitrate is a byproduct of good proper trade picking and good risk:reward is a byproduct of good proper MM and protection strategies....
BE does not count at all. I move to BE+1 so that at least I get paid for the effort. it is a personal thing, along the lines of " I tried, got just a pip but at least I got paid for my effort"....1 pip for the landlord, so to speak. it does not make a difference in terms of P&L but, it changes the %....
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #442
  • Apr 9, 2010 3:50am Apr 9, 2010 3:50am
Quoting rogerdoger
thanks for the reply. for this strategy we'd only need the order flow data or would you recommend getting some other stuff as well?
i personally believe that you do not need it to trade this way...it helps to see big sizes printed but you'll know when they are moving, you'll see it on chart.

just follow price, follow the flow of price. it is a special kind of flow
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #443
  • Apr 9, 2010 3:52am Apr 9, 2010 3:52am
Quoting hornet
BE does not count at all. I move to BE+1 so that at least I get paid for the effort. it is a personal thing, along the lines of " I tried, got just a pip but at least I got paid for my effort"....1 pip for the landlord, so to speak. it does not make a difference in terms of P&L but, it changes the %....
It makes a difference I think for example I place 3 trades 1 win 1 loss 1 be..

I make 20 pips lose 10 pips and be 0 pips per trade I see 20-10+0/3=3.33pips
I averaged 10 pips per trade.. now without use of be.. price was coming back lets say we exited less than be but before the stop its 20-10-5=5/3 or 1.33 per trade.. so sometimes use of BE can pull up average per trade.
edit: hum the math in my example is wrong
  • #444
  • Apr 9, 2010 3:55am Apr 9, 2010 3:55am
Quoting domino
It makes a difference I think for example I place 3 trades 1 win 1 loss 1 be..

I make 20 pips lose 10 pips and be 0 pips per trade I see 20+10+0/3=10pips
I averaged 10 pips per trade.. now without use of be.. price was coming back lets say we exited less than be but before the stop its 20+10-5=25/3 or 8.33 per trade.. so sometimes use of BE can pull up average per trade.
what i meant is that if you have 1W, 1L and 1 BE your hitrate is 50%
instead 1W, 1L, 1BE+1 you have 66% hits

in statistics that BE does not get counted. but BE+1 will higher the hitrate and lower the AvWin, but those are just statistics. what really counts is the PF

20-10(+0)=10
/2 (because you only count 2 trades)=5 at 50% hitrate PF 2.00

20-10+1=11
/3=3.66 at 66% hitrate PF 2.10
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #445
  • Apr 9, 2010 3:56am Apr 9, 2010 3:56am
Quoting hornet
what i meant is that if you have 1W, 1L and 1 BE your hitrate is 50%

in statistics that BE does not get counted. but BE+1 will higher the hitrate and lower the AvWin, but does are just statistics. what really counts is the PF
yeah I think so.. I think statistics tho gives the retail side the balls to trade tho.. if you know what I mean.
  • #446
  • Apr 9, 2010 4:03am Apr 9, 2010 4:03am
Quoting hornet
what i meant is that if you have 1W, 1L and 1 BE your hitrate is 50%
instead 1W, 1L, 1BE+1 you have 66% hits

in statistics that BE does not get counted. but BE+1 will higher the hitrate and lower the AvWin, but those are just statistics. what really counts is the PF

20-10(+0)=10
/2 (because you only count 2 trades)=5 at 50% hitrate

20-10+1=11
/3=3.66 at 66% hitrate

I would count every trade because it is still money at risk. so even be get counted.
  • #447
  • Apr 9, 2010 4:04am Apr 9, 2010 4:04am
heres the open and close order on the ej

and still pending AU
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pa1.JPG Size: 9 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: pa2.JPG Size: 5 KB
  • #448
  • Apr 9, 2010 4:09am Apr 9, 2010 4:09am
Quoting domino
heres the open and close order on the ej

and still pending AU
why are you posting them? do you really see a need ? i don't think you do. not for me at least.

The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #449
  • Apr 9, 2010 4:10am Apr 9, 2010 4:10am
Quoting hornet
it is a different story when talking about hitrate on a personal level, talking to retail traders that have their own money on the line. they come into online trading to make a better living for themselves. in this case % of winners matters a lot in relation to a person's psychology, background, upbringing. the need to be right, is important for the majority of people. for some....it matters a lot
Yep, and the majority of people lose money. Is there perhaps a correlation?

It's not how many times you win or lose that matters, what matters is how much you lose when you're wrong and how much you win when you're right....as per Soros's quote in my sig.

Exploit to the max the times you're right, and minimize risk when you're wrong. Job done in my opinion.
  • #450
  • Apr 9, 2010 4:11am Apr 9, 2010 4:11am
good order flow.. bad support.. bad cable breakout(daily).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pa1.JPG Size: 84 KB
  • #451
  • Apr 9, 2010 4:12am Apr 9, 2010 4:12am
Quoting hornet
why are you posting them? do you really see a need ? i don't think you do. not for me at least.

huh?
  • #452
  • Apr 9, 2010 4:12am Apr 9, 2010 4:12am
Quoting pipmutt
Yep, and the majority of people lose money. Is there perhaps a correlation?

It's not how many times you win or lose that matters, what matters is how much you lose when you're wrong and how much you win when you're right....as per Soros's quote in my sig.
is there a correlation ? maybe yes...you might be right.

The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #453
  • Apr 9, 2010 4:14am Apr 9, 2010 4:14am
Quoting domino
huh?
i believe you entered the trades without the need to actually show that you did. i believe it because the method is sound (for me since i trade similar), it has been used for ages and will always work. the art is mastering entries, accepting the risk and being disciplined on your rules
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #454
  • Apr 9, 2010 4:17am Apr 9, 2010 4:17am
Quoting domino
good order flow.. bad support.. bad cable breakout(daily).
yes, that is why i like to filter my setups by needing to conquer the level.
holding above a peak will make me consider the turnaround and look for entries. otherwise i let it go
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #455
  • Apr 9, 2010 6:28am Apr 9, 2010 6:28am
Quoting domino
good order flow.. bad support.. bad cable breakout(daily).
Domino, why did you say this is a bad support and bad breakout? What indications do you look for?

To me this breakout is getting into resistance zone.
  • #456
  • Apr 9, 2010 9:20am Apr 9, 2010 9:20am
I would like to know where to get that bloomberg term. for 200 a month.
I was quoted just over $2000 a month last fall for a single terminal and this is not second hand.
  • #457
  • Apr 9, 2010 10:32am Apr 9, 2010 10:32am
This might be helpful for beginners to understand a little bit about order flow:

http://www.lind-waldock.com/educatio...eature02.shtml
  • #458
  • Apr 9, 2010 10:54am Apr 9, 2010 10:54am
Quoting Mr-Forex
This might be helpful for beginners
Thanks!

Great info this week here on the thread. Much appreciated!

Hope everyone has a good weekend.
  • #459
  • Apr 9, 2010 10:56am Apr 9, 2010 10:56am
Quoting Porkpie
Anyone have any experience trading E micro forex futures? If so how's the execution given that the e micro is new on the scene and liquidity might be an issue?
Don't know if anything's changed but costs were high and liquidity was crap apparently.
  • #460
  • Apr 9, 2010 11:12am Apr 9, 2010 11:12am
Quoting hornet

the art is mastering entries, accepting the risk and being disciplined on your rules
I might have missed it but I haven't seen how you/Domino handle exits, are there any targets with these types of trades? Assuming you don't have any volume data it must be difficult to gauge how far price is likely to go isn't it?
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