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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #60,361
  • Apr 8, 2010 11:39pm Apr 8, 2010 11:39pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
.... doesn't intervention mean a trend reverse?
not necessarily..

i think Central Banks have other means to intervene. (im not sure how/what)
like Mike said, after some time they give up (&/or they may already have fulfilled their 'mission' so they stop intervening)
  • #60,362
  • Apr 8, 2010 11:58pm Apr 8, 2010 11:58pm
Quoting cprao
It helps identify trends clearly.. You can find zigzag indicator for MT4 here -http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=227018
You know that it "Re-Paints" right?
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Just as long as you are aware.
  • #60,363
  • Apr 9, 2010 12:08am Apr 9, 2010 12:08am
Quoting mbqb11
So when we look under this beob we can see this previous High/low flip. This shows us a point at which buyers were willing to BUY, and then hold that area causing that little tiny high/low flip.
Hi Mike, thanks for your explanation. I normally always pay attention to the area where high/low flip. But in this case I missed it because the high/low flip area is formed by two consecutive bars, which make it looked like the price just burst through that level without meeting any S/R level. This is a great lesson. Again, thanks Mike.
  • #60,364
  • Apr 9, 2010 12:24am Apr 9, 2010 12:24am
Wow this thread has so much interest.

One thing is you never no what the banks or the market will do, the whole goal of trading is have a set of rules that guides you and ultimately be profitable at the end of the week, month or year.

The banks or governments need to control the cross rates due to import exports etc. They have deep pockets and to keep the rates at levels they see as necessary the will inject billions of dollars to manipulate the market(even the very short term). But remember as traders who really cares as long as we are on the right side of the movement most of the time.

Trading should be no more complicated than that in my opinion, trade your system and follow your rules. If you are nervous about the market go back to a demo and continue trading your system(like you would with real money) as that is the only thing you have control over soon as you stop you are letting emotion rule your trading.

I have not read this thread in detail and have no idea what he system is but it must be a good one

Cheers

Dazza
  • #60,365
  • Apr 9, 2010 12:24am Apr 9, 2010 12:24am
Quoting Dan Gilbert
I understand that, but the trend just continues in the direction it was going after the whipsaw...... ???? doesn't intervention mean a trend reverse?
It depends on how much power ($$$$) they have to intervene.
There have been many instances where intervention has failed.
The most famous of which is of course, when Soros broke the Bank of England.

In 1997, Bank of Thailand tried to intervene in their ccy and maintain their Dollar peg. Then they ran out of ammo and the Thai Baht died and they were forced to go back to free float... being severely overleveraged in terms of their economy and with many businesses holding US$ debt, the float just about massacred businesses because of the sudden Baht depreciation. This was the beginning of the Asian Fin Crisis. Many other economies didn't have enough $$ to fight off big funds. (We'd have to go into the macro econ stuff to explain this more, and I don't wanna clog the thread up w that so I'll stop here.)

In previous years, I think 2007? RBNZ intervened also... caused a short term spike in the ccy... that's all that happened. (I remember cause I was asking myself similar questions). Then the trend continued. I remember reading that RBNZ didn't have THAT much ammo...
On the other hand, if memory serves me correctly, the market got the hell outta the way of BOJ, cause I think they had a HUGE surplus. So they could reload the gun again and again.

Bottom line: It takes alota moolah to change the trend. Does the C/bank have enough? Boils down to SS & DD per se.
One Mind, Any Market
  • #60,366
  • Apr 9, 2010 12:42am Apr 9, 2010 12:42am
I had way too much sake at lunch for macroeconomics, but...

Quoting Cyrus
Bottom line: It takes alota moolah to change the trend. Does the C/bank have enough? Boils down to SS & DD per se.
Not even that complex sometimes. Bundy summed it up here:

Quoting bundyraider
The CHF pairs are scary at the moment. They keep intervening randomly.
I have to admit , I'm spooked out of trading them for now.
The SNB cant stop the franc naturally appreciating - it is a strong, safe currency - and they need it that way (the banking industry is a major component of their GDP, and no one wants an unstable swiss bank account!). And with the swiss economy improving, rate rises and increased stability is only going to continue this path.

What they can do, however, is stop a bunch of clownshoes accelerating the natural growth by piling their money in long chf (ie, short EURCHF/USDCHF/GBPCHF) thinking it is a no brainer, easy money trade. How? By firing shots at them every once in a while to keep them on their toes.

Bundy risks what on a trade, a thousand bucks? And as an informed market participant with a decent size stake, he doesnt want any part of it. What if you had a hundred million? You might think twice before shorting EURCHF.

Combine this with a bit of running your mouth in the media, and you dont even need to spend so much - as soon as people see a spike, hedge funds dump their shorts (figuratively, I hope ) and amplify the effect of your market moves.

So it's less about changing the trend (which is impossible with solely market moves), and more about cutting back the speculation which accelerates it.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #60,367
  • Apr 9, 2010 12:46am Apr 9, 2010 12:46am
Quoting mbqb11
Is it my spelling that is the highlight there LOL i am not a good one

OR you missed those trouble areas?

Mike
No but PPFX said it's my words so i thought it was pointed towards me . LOL

No i did't missed it.

i got out at +3 pips manually.
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  • #60,368
  • Apr 9, 2010 12:48am Apr 9, 2010 12:48am
Quoting ppfx
i think he meant this

nassir you should put a R cause you just invented a word that i think will be used a lot in this thread
At least people would remember me when i won't be here.
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  • #60,369
  • Apr 9, 2010 12:56am Apr 9, 2010 12:56am
Quoting benji533
So you started trading when you were 18 cool.
I started looking at charts when i was 20 and it was exactly these days back in April-2008, Then in April-09 i came to FF. So April is a good month for me. I guess what good April will bring me this year.
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  • #60,370
  • Apr 9, 2010 1:01am Apr 9, 2010 1:01am
Notice how Price is respecting or retesting the break of the PBs, like the Eur/Jpy. I would prefer it breaking up through the 125.00 and then respect that level.

But my point is that this type of Price behavior is favorable for the setup to continue. Will it continue? Who knows its hitting a strong PPZ level, 125.00. A strong break up through this level would tell me volumes.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #60,371
  • Apr 9, 2010 1:05am Apr 9, 2010 1:05am
Quoting joelcf
I had way too much sake at lunch for macroeconomics, but...



Not even that complex sometimes. Bundy summed it up here:



The SNB cant stop the franc naturally appreciating - it is a strong, safe currency - and they need it that way (the banking industry is a major component of their GDP, and no one wants an unstable swiss bank account!). And with the swiss economy improving, rate rises and increased stability is only going to continue this path.

What they can do, however, is stop a bunch of clownshoes accelerating...
So why don't we short them after every intervention especially Eur/Chf?

(Ooops i hope it was't anybody's secret. lol)
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  • #60,372
  • Apr 9, 2010 1:11am Apr 9, 2010 1:11am
Quoting nasir.khan
So why don't we short them after every intervention especially Eur/Chf?

(Ooops i hope it was't anybody's secret. lol)
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Plenty of people do, hence the trend continuing. In doing so, you are implicitly assumuing that they arent going to do it again right away. Which isnt always the case, which makes it a speculative percentage play on the odds of a repeat. More uncertainty makes speculation less profitable which slows the rate of appreciation. Make it less attractive to people running real money, and they will move their efforts elsewhere.

And even if everyone did, as price approaches the 'line in the sand' (or, to us, a PPZ), the rate of speculation drops off dramatically (and the rate of non-dramatic manipulation increases too, but thats another story)

As I said, their goal isnt to weaken their currency forever (in fact, that would be bad for the country). It's just to slow the rate enough for the economy to get back to firing - exporters start making enough money to start hiring people who start spending money who let domestic producers make money who then hire more people and so on.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #60,373
  • Apr 9, 2010 1:12am Apr 9, 2010 1:12am
Quoting jarroo
Notice how Price is respecting or retesting the break of the PBs, like the Eur/Jpy. I would prefer it breaking up through the 125.00 and then respect that level.

But my point is that this type of Price behavior is favorable for the setup to continue. Will it continue? Who knows its hitting a strong PPZ level, 125.00. A strong break up through this level would tell me volumes.
Jarroo(Jim^2 knows the deal_)

Check out the 4hr how well respected this area is now. So with price breaking through ideally would be a nice strong close through and if price pulls back it finds nice support by the former resistance. No need to take a big loss on these cause we know what to look for
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  • #60,374
  • Apr 9, 2010 1:15am Apr 9, 2010 1:15am
Quoting mbqb11
Jarroo(Jim^2 knows the deal_)

Check out the 4hr how well respected this area is now. So with price breaking through ideally would be a nice strong close through and if price pulls back it finds nice support by the former resistance. No need to take a big loss on these cause we know what to look for

That's how we roll brother.

If I would have captured that pic a minute or two later I would have snaped the break. lol
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #60,375
  • Apr 9, 2010 1:29am Apr 9, 2010 1:29am
Quoting nasir.khan
No but PPFX said it's my words so i thought it was pointed towards me . LOL

No i did't missed it.

i got out at +3 pips manually.
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I got out at -64p, under the H4 BEOB. That's one bad trade. Going against this big down trend is like trying to stop a freight train Superman style... But you not being Superman.
  • #60,376
  • Apr 9, 2010 1:33am Apr 9, 2010 1:33am
Daily EURUSD PB went where it was supposed to and then made a small H4 pin that went... where do you think?
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  • #60,377
  • Apr 9, 2010 1:51am Apr 9, 2010 1:51am
Quoting jarroo
That's how we roll brother.

If I would have captured that pic a minute or two later I would have snaped the break. lol


I must say Markets nowadays are so much smooth. It's ranging 30% of the times and trending 70% of the times.

No wonder you see how many of those trend trading type and many other threads are popping up. No disrespect but it will be interesting to see how many of those stay above the water when markets will be back to ranging conditions nearly in holiday season (maybe).
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  • #60,378
  • Apr 9, 2010 1:56am Apr 9, 2010 1:56am
this zig zag indicator is pretty damn nice.

I can use it to see swing highs and swing lows, plot my PPZs accordingly, and whalla!

Again, I find these tools great for leaving my own brain at the door. If I can have any tool that prevents analysis paralysis, I'm going to utilize it.

If I finish plotting PPZs, and want to plot more of the "minor" PPZs, just change the settings on the indicator, and draw some more.
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #60,379
  • Apr 9, 2010 2:04am Apr 9, 2010 2:04am
Quoting PeterPan
I'm trying to find a tool that automatically calculates position size. Do you guys have any suggestions?

Thanks,

P
hope this will help. Just put numbers of pips for SL and after close trade put profit in pips
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls position_size.xls   41 KB | 555 downloads
  • #60,380
  • Apr 9, 2010 2:08am Apr 9, 2010 2:08am
Quoting neutro
I got out at -64p, under the H4 BEOB. That's one bad trade. Going against this big down trend is like trying to stop a freight train Superman style... But you not being Superman.
Nop it's was't -64 but you could say -27.

I entered late at 0075. cause of that PPZ at .0069. So in that sense i was sure that i had crossed that PPZ so the target for taking half off was .0128.

But when i saw it shooting back at me and EU reversing on the other hand i got out.
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