DislikedThe bounce at 141 was the most obvious trade of the day to be honest.
- 50% fibo from 118-163 upmove.
- 4hr bearish divergence target.
- Historical area of both support AND resistance.
If it didn't bounce there, I would have been amazed.
The only slightly surprising thing is it didn't stick around the 141 region for longer and retest 140.95 more. Tells me this bounce is just that; a bounce.
Staying short bias..... for now.Ignored
Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
- #220,503
- Apr 8, 2010 12:15pm Apr 8, 2010 12:15pm
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,719 Posts
yes q, same view here. maybe my previous posting was somehow incomplete or misleading, sorry about that.
what i meant was to show where support is and what happened there; also, that we bounced off support and we are heading towards first batch of resistances - i.e., weekly & monthly most traded area, 142.65. IF this area will be strong enough to resist, then we are heading lower again. if not, we go higher, maybe 143.70.
you mentioned that daily chart configuration does not support a rally, and i subscribe to that. in my opinion, end of road for this dip is somewhere @ mid 138; it is possible that it may go lower, but my analysis says to stop there and re-evaluate.
thanks for your comments
, much appreciated.
what i meant was to show where support is and what happened there; also, that we bounced off support and we are heading towards first batch of resistances - i.e., weekly & monthly most traded area, 142.65. IF this area will be strong enough to resist, then we are heading lower again. if not, we go higher, maybe 143.70.
you mentioned that daily chart configuration does not support a rally, and i subscribe to that. in my opinion, end of road for this dip is somewhere @ mid 138; it is possible that it may go lower, but my analysis says to stop there and re-evaluate.
thanks for your comments
, much appreciated. That's not what the daily chart is suggesting. . .
What I see is price testing resistance near and below 4hr gann currently.
This area is also near DPP which after a move like this is typical for price to go back and test it prior to it's continuation of the trend which is currently lower. . .
In addition, I see price testing 38.2% fib from the move from 144.80-140.93. . . Price could go as high as 61.8% fib @ 142.60/80 which is where 4hr gann and dpp sits. . .
As stated before price won't start heading up until we see the daily chart...
Nihil Sine Deo.
- #220,505
- Apr 8, 2010 12:23pm Apr 8, 2010 12:23pm
- | Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Witness Protection | 132 Posts
[quote=JhonMonsalve;3619546]Take a look to this: GChf 
Shorts in play again? R:R ratio is great.
Definitly
Currently this pair fits the trading style I've used for the past 30yrs. Look for the extended moves then trade to the reversion to the mean. Disclosure, this style demands good money management, just because something is extended doesn't mean it can't get more extended. TP1 is around 1.6200 (middle of next week) TP2 1.600 probably won't be reached since it looks like the cycle is switching over to an up move.
Shorts in play again? R:R ratio is great.Definitly
Currently this pair fits the trading style I've used for the past 30yrs. Look for the extended moves then trade to the reversion to the mean. Disclosure, this style demands good money management, just because something is extended doesn't mean it can't get more extended. TP1 is around 1.6200 (middle of next week) TP2 1.600 probably won't be reached since it looks like the cycle is switching over to an up move.
Without a trade plan, say bye bye to your account & hello to frustration.
- #220,506
- Apr 8, 2010 12:32pm Apr 8, 2010 12:32pm
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Take The A-Trade | 2,303 Posts
The bounce at 141 was the most obvious trade of the day to be honest.
- 50% fibo from 118-163 upmove.
- 4hr bearish divergence target.
- Historical area of both support AND resistance.
If it didn't bounce there, I would have been amazed.
The only slightly surprising thing is it didn't stick around the 141 region for longer and retest 140.95 more. Tells me this bounce is just that; a bounce.
Staying short bias..... for now.
4h:
Daily chart:
What do you guys think?
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
- #220,508
- Apr 8, 2010 12:46pm Apr 8, 2010 12:46pm
- Joined Sep 2007 | Status: Trader | 6,871 Posts
Mike, for the last two days you've been sending me PMs asking why 14x.xx, why 14x.xx
I've explained it to you each time as politely and as well as I can.
Changed entry to 142.50
Ok, so for those who wonder my logic behind doing this...
I often times book profits on half or more of my positions when they are well in profit (100 or more pips). On these shorts I initiated them at 143.30 and took off about half at 141.90 while allowing the other half to ride. This allows me to book profits while still maintaining an interest in my overall scope (target of 138.50).
My logic is that not only did I bank 140 pips on half my position, but shorting from 60 pips higher on a retrace gives me that much more profit. In theory I could open up an even larger position now with the same risk parameters as I had before because I bought myself that extra pippage. Am I concerned that I think we could see an even higher retracement up to 143.00 or so? No. If I'd held my full position I'd simply be watching my profit fluctuate. As long as I put on my new shorts above 141.94 (.94 not .90 to cover spread) I made a good decision. Granted I want to maximize my gravy here, but I'm not going to get greedy and miss the chance to get my shorts back on.
Of course, there is the risk that I don't get the retracement I expected and I'm left with only half my original position (that's why I keep half). That's just the risk one takes. Last night I was relatively drunk and looked up the quotes on my phone. I saw us trading at 141.20 and said "damn". My friend asked what was wrong and when I explained that I believe I've "missed my short opportunity for sterling yen" she just looked at me really confused (my friends don't know about my trading).
Anyway, that's where my thoughts are on this. I know it's probably obvious to most but I get questions via PM regularly.
Now lets drop to 138.50 please
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
- #220,510
- Apr 8, 2010 12:55pm Apr 8, 2010 12:55pm
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,719 Posts
well you know who you are, i'm not gonna make you compliments on a public forum, people might get the wrong idea 
Not sure what "someone like [me]" is supposed to mean but hey, I'm young and having fun still... right?
Nihil Sine Deo.
- #220,511
- Apr 8, 2010 12:57pm Apr 8, 2010 12:57pm
- Joined Sep 2007 | Status: Trader | 6,871 Posts
well you know who you are, i'm not gonna make you compliments on a public forum, people might get the wrong idea
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
- #220,513
- Apr 8, 2010 2:01pm Apr 8, 2010 2:01pm
- Joined Sep 2007 | Status: Trader | 6,871 Posts
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
- #220,514
- Apr 8, 2010 2:11pm Apr 8, 2010 2:11pm
- | Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Still Learning :) | 1,203 Posts
- #220,518
- Apr 8, 2010 3:52pm Apr 8, 2010 3:52pm
- Joined Sep 2007 | Status: Trader | 6,871 Posts
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
- #220,520
- Apr 8, 2010 4:32pm Apr 8, 2010 4:32pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: User of Geppy patience pills | 7,645 Posts
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself