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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #220,501
  • Apr 8, 2010 9:37am Apr 8, 2010 9:37am
Quoting ukdaytrader
The bounce at 141 was the most obvious trade of the day to be honest.

 

  1. 50% fibo from 118-163 upmove.
  2. 4hr bearish divergence target.
  3. Historical area of both support AND resistance.

If it didn't bounce there, I would have been amazed.

The only slightly surprising thing is it didn't stick around the 141 region for longer and retest 140.95 more. Tells me this bounce is just that; a bounce.

Staying short bias..... for now.

You beat me to it. . . Agreed!
  • #220,502
  • Edited 10:35am Apr 8, 2010 10:00am | Edited 10:35am
gj5m & 4h
Attached Images
  • #220,503
  • Apr 8, 2010 10:15am Apr 8, 2010 10:15am
yes q, same view here. maybe my previous posting was somehow incomplete or misleading, sorry about that.

what i meant was to show where support is and what happened there; also, that we bounced off support and we are heading towards first batch of resistances - i.e., weekly & monthly most traded area, 142.65. IF this area will be strong enough to resist, then we are heading lower again. if not, we go higher, maybe 143.70.

you mentioned that daily chart configuration does not support a rally, and i subscribe to that. in my opinion, end of road for this dip is somewhere @ mid 138; it is possible that it may go lower, but my analysis says to stop there and re-evaluate.

thanks for your comments , much appreciated.

Quoting quecee5
That's not what the daily chart is suggesting. . .

What I see is price testing resistance near and below 4hr gann currently.
This area is also near DPP which after a move like this is typical for price to go back and test it prior to it's continuation of the trend which is currently lower. . .

In addition, I see price testing 38.2% fib from the move from 144.80-140.93. . . Price could go as high as 61.8% fib @ 142.60/80 which is where 4hr gann and dpp sits. . .

As stated before price won't start heading up until we see the daily chart...
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #220,504
  • Apr 8, 2010 10:22am Apr 8, 2010 10:22am
Quoting quecee5
You beat me to it. . . Agreed!
if this wave is the beginning of 5th wave on daily counting top from 153 then from second half of this month we might expect selling toward 127, which means that our target 138/9 is just a short stop in long travel to south
  • #220,505
  • Apr 8, 2010 10:23am Apr 8, 2010 10:23am
[quote=JhonMonsalve;3619546]Take a look to this: GChf Shorts in play again? R:R ratio is great.

Definitly
Currently this pair fits the trading style I've used for the past 30yrs. Look for the extended moves then trade to the reversion to the mean. Disclosure, this style demands good money management, just because something is extended doesn't mean it can't get more extended. TP1 is around 1.6200 (middle of next week) TP2 1.600 probably won't be reached since it looks like the cycle is switching over to an up move.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Without a trade plan, say bye bye to your account & hello to frustration.
  • #220,506
  • Apr 8, 2010 10:32am Apr 8, 2010 10:32am
Quoting ukdaytrader
The bounce at 141 was the most obvious trade of the day to be honest.

 

  1. 50% fibo from 118-163 upmove.
  2. 4hr bearish divergence target.
  3. Historical area of both support AND resistance.

If it didn't bounce there, I would have been amazed.

The only slightly surprising thing is it didn't stick around the 141 region for longer and retest 140.95 more. Tells me this bounce is just that; a bounce.

Staying short bias..... for now.

Great Uk! Closed some of my short positions @141, but this down move is not finished yet, let's see what happens around 143.26 --Pretty important s/r zone [618 FL from last down move + Daily 5Sma]--, like Q is pointing, daily chart has more room to go down, so far, daily 5Sma is acting like resistance, is located @143.2 too, but try reload shorts at this point is pretty risky, daily candle is forming a nice hammer; right on support zone, is better wait a little bit and clean OS conditions in 1h & 4h TF, IMHO.

4h:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Daily chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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What do you guys think?
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
  • #220,507
  • Apr 8, 2010 10:43am Apr 8, 2010 10:43am
I see what Q and the other traders are seeing which is a bearish bias on the PA... The picture is setting itself up for a drop and the 142.50-70 area is a great place to short for 140.5 first target for tomorrow.
Traderdesk -
  • #220,508
  • Apr 8, 2010 10:46am Apr 8, 2010 10:46am
Quoting Geppy
Mike, for the last two days you've been sending me PMs asking why 14x.xx, why 14x.xx

I've explained it to you each time as politely and as well as I can.
Quoting Geppy
Changed entry to 142.50
Just got 'em after a long wait! I was a bit early in taking them off but that's the name of the game sometimes.

Ok, so for those who wonder my logic behind doing this...

I often times book profits on half or more of my positions when they are well in profit (100 or more pips). On these shorts I initiated them at 143.30 and took off about half at 141.90 while allowing the other half to ride. This allows me to book profits while still maintaining an interest in my overall scope (target of 138.50).

My logic is that not only did I bank 140 pips on half my position, but shorting from 60 pips higher on a retrace gives me that much more profit. In theory I could open up an even larger position now with the same risk parameters as I had before because I bought myself that extra pippage. Am I concerned that I think we could see an even higher retracement up to 143.00 or so? No. If I'd held my full position I'd simply be watching my profit fluctuate. As long as I put on my new shorts above 141.94 (.94 not .90 to cover spread) I made a good decision. Granted I want to maximize my gravy here, but I'm not going to get greedy and miss the chance to get my shorts back on.

Of course, there is the risk that I don't get the retracement I expected and I'm left with only half my original position (that's why I keep half). That's just the risk one takes. Last night I was relatively drunk and looked up the quotes on my phone. I saw us trading at 141.20 and said "damn". My friend asked what was wrong and when I explained that I believe I've "missed my short opportunity for sterling yen" she just looked at me really confused (my friends don't know about my trading).

Anyway, that's where my thoughts are on this. I know it's probably obvious to most but I get questions via PM regularly.

Now lets drop to 138.50 please
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  • #220,509
  • Edited 12:01pm Apr 8, 2010 10:48am | Edited 12:01pm
naatha is bullish - for scalp only
if it breaks 144.83 - for 148.30
gj1d & 5m
Attached Images
  • #220,510
  • Apr 8, 2010 10:55am Apr 8, 2010 10:55am
well you know who you are, i'm not gonna make you compliments on a public forum, people might get the wrong idea

Quoting Geppy
Not sure what "someone like [me]" is supposed to mean but hey, I'm young and having fun still... right?
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #220,511
  • Apr 8, 2010 10:57am Apr 8, 2010 10:57am
Quoting Scrat
well you know who you are, i'm not gonna make you compliments on a public forum, people might get the wrong idea
lol, wasn't sure if it was a bash or not...
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #220,512
  • Apr 8, 2010 11:49am Apr 8, 2010 11:49am
if the count is correct then 142.75 is 0.618 retrace from 3rd wave in wave 3 from 143.8
  • #220,513
  • Apr 8, 2010 12:01pm Apr 8, 2010 12:01pm
Not this chart!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.JPG Size: 47 KB
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #220,514
  • Apr 8, 2010 12:11pm Apr 8, 2010 12:11pm
Quoting Geppy
Not this chart!
i am short from 142.70

Ub
  • #220,515
  • Apr 8, 2010 12:15pm Apr 8, 2010 12:15pm
SL will be price open above upper resistance line. Targeting 141.10 area 1st.
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  • #220,516
  • Apr 8, 2010 1:39pm Apr 8, 2010 1:39pm
Ok here is my gameplan for tomorrow: I have open positions at 142.50-70 and 141.40-60 looking to take my first profit at 140.20-40 area... I believe that 140.50 will not stop an attempted to go lower...Ideally I would like to see PA be at 141.60-90 tomorrow right before the London open and then for the fall to happen...

Hourlies are now at O/B levels...
Traderdesk -
  • #220,517
  • Apr 8, 2010 1:51pm Apr 8, 2010 1:51pm
4hr divergence may be forming
  • #220,518
  • Apr 8, 2010 1:52pm Apr 8, 2010 1:52pm
Gotta love it when those FXCM n00bs are handing you money:

GBPJPY – The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.13 as nearly 53% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.01 as 50% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 10.0% higher than yesterday and 26.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.9% lower than yesterday and 22.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.5% stronger than yesterday and 0.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.


http://www.dailyfx.com/technical_analysis/sentiment/

check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #220,519
  • Apr 8, 2010 1:59pm Apr 8, 2010 1:59pm
Quoting Geppy
Gotta love it when those FXCM n00bs are handing you money:

[i]GBPJPY – The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.13 as nearly 53% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.01 as 50% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 10.0% higher than yesterday and 26.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.9% lower than yesterday and 22.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.5% stronger than yesterday and 0.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals...
please quote ratio on GU from FXCM
  • #220,520
  • Apr 8, 2010 2:32pm Apr 8, 2010 2:32pm
Quoting metlife777
please quote ratio on GU from FXCM
Last week - 1.19
Present + 1.6
62% Long => bearish
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
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