AUD/USD

Hi,

finally on the right side of a trade. Just wondering what others thought about a TP here.

I went short just before employment figures, figuring that low retail sales in Feb may result in higher unemployment rates - it did - sacked all the part time workers, but still employed more FT in WA and NSW.

Anyway, been listening to you guys for a while - love the chatter.

mze

Ya, I am watching this around all my pairs. USD/CHF is blasting off, GU has broken all my lines, UJ seems to be staying calm but just dropped below significant S/R and FIB. With AUD, and any pair for that matter, I would be worried about correction. If you got in at a good point, I would move stops to break even or, depending on your entry, to take a few pips. I would cut a portion of my positions and let the rest ride. Also, Trailing Stops with a moderate lead might let you catch more of it. I didn't let mine ride long enough. I made the mistake of having too many positions open across too many pairs and could not monitor all of them. I took my profit on AUD, which was a bad idea, and am just leaving CHF and GBP. I am still in JPY though. Also, you can get a good idea of when to get out by throwing up other pairs that are feeling this. GBP and CHF are playing off each other with GBP taking larger swings. Also, watching your volumes can give you a good idea when the money is leaving.

yep! 9212 or 9221, will be watching! how you doing marc

I propose there will be a huge quantity of stops just below 9220 where the large old UTL is, WPP @ 9146 is more likely imo if it goes below 9220

Also, AUD is coming up on old TL. If it does not bounce, the next significant price is 92160 (old S/R).

Oh, just saw Bear saw that TL too. We think alike

Good. IMO start taking profits... or at least lock them in with stop losses.

Here is what I got, you can see hurdles in the way. Also, watch volumes.

Look at the MA's below current price on my H4 and H1. This is why I say start locking in now.

I will wait for rebound to .924x and go short - that would be at fib 61,8 - or maybe a little higher at fib 50 on 4h.

appreciate your comments.

i TPed at the intersection of the two TLs before the bounce
they are pretty reliable, i was choosing between MAs or S/R or TL to TP
though some of them do coincide

thanks for the TP tips, i actually only had one position (bad entry from yesterday yet again) so i couldn't take partial profit
i did move the SL down while watching it crashes even more

i will read up on better TP strategy and re-evaluate her again

Saxon, I re-entered G/U at 1.5210. You still in this round?

Anyone for re-entry at 9250?

I'm for it.
PA on upward break of 9220 TL is soooo weak I smell at least more retraces coming. Maybe DPP @ 9270 or little below could be a nice entry point for shorts.

Awaiting PA on M15 before entering.

0.9220

If you are advocating for shorts, than great. I'm short .925-sl9285-tp1 .915. Great set up

I have done my research on aussie over a month ago that is why I am saying for sell Ausssie please read my post and tell me if I am right the main reason of selling is the past price behavior please check aussie High and low year wise
year 20000.66880.5070
year 20010.57260.4785
year 20020.57960.5049
year 20030.75360.5584
year 20040.80000.6799
year 20050.79880.7236
year 20060.79300.7017
year 20070.94010.7677
year 20080.98490.6014
year 20090.94050.6250


This is 10 year high and low and average movement of 10 years is 1683 points I can count it 2000 per year check it carefully in 2009 high was 9405 and low was .6250, in year 08 high was 9848 and low was .6014 this year if we sustain that high .9320 so our low could be .6000-.61000 we have upside room of 200 to max 400 points but at down side we have a room of 2000 points which is better for us? long or short off course short if we follow a longer term and if we calculate it its all about technical now I talk about fundamental we can see Aussie is increasing Interest rate no one can think that it can go down right but if we see pas behavior of interest rate

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
2009 3.253.253.003.003.003.003.003.003.253.503.75
2008 7.007.257.257.257.257.257.257.006.005.254.25
2007 6.256.256.256.256.256.256.506.506.506.756.75
2006 5.505.505.505.755.755.756.006.006.006.256.25
2005 5.255.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.50
2004 5.255.255.255.255.255.255.255.255.255.255.25
2003 4.754.754.754.754.754.754.754.754.755.005.25
2002 4.254.254.254.504.754.754.754.754.754.754.75
2001 5.755.505.005.005.005.005.004.754.504.504.25
2000 5.50 5.756.00 6.006.256.256.256.256.25


We can see clearly that in 2008 we had a same situation even in every year we can see Australia increase its interest rate check 2008 interest rate was 7 and they increased it to 7.25 but what happen after that? it was unsustainable and it went down so I want to say in this 10 year history of Aussie now can we go long when its on top of it please check it and let me know and correct me if I am wrong about a valid point of selling..is short is better or long please post...

Thanks

Ub

Now heading higher towards upper trendline?

Hi, it seems that AUD can not break the three-weeks top. It may rebound soon. Anyone who loves to short AUD this time??

Thanks.

Daily PP just broke @ 9270
I hedged my short for now....