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Simple & Consistent Fibbing Method

  • #801
  • Apr 7, 2010 9:00am Apr 7, 2010 9:00am
Quoting simoneg
Thanks very much aftab! Those are the ones. Who do you use as your image host?
Simone,

I simply upload the pictures on this site itself.

When you post, you have a button that says "Manage Attachments".

Once you click it, you will be able to figure it out.
AFTAB Time Will Tell & Price Will Show
  • #802
  • Apr 7, 2010 9:00am Apr 7, 2010 9:00am
Quoting aftab
Simone,

I simply upload the pictures on this site itself.

When you post, you have a button that says "Manage Attachments".

Once you click it, you will be able to figure it out.

Cool! Thanks much! I will check that out!
Hero Traders Live to see their Accounts Die!
  • #803
  • Apr 7, 2010 9:55am Apr 7, 2010 9:55am
Hi Simone,

I am posting the sequence of trade set ups for today just to ensure I have got it right. Would you please check to see if I have got it right.

Step1 - is fine
Step 2 - the stop would go below .809 - right? Also, is the entry - right?
Step 3 - Profit target met - re-fib the targets & entry.
Step 4 - Pull the entry fib to past data which is the lower low. 2nd entry on short trade.

Step 5 - Redraw fibs since target has met and also entry fibs. What should one be looking at here now?

Thank you very much.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP - 7th March - Step 1.jpg Size: 120 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP - 15 Mins - Step 2.jpg Size: 99 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP - 15 Mins - Step3.jpg Size: 110 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP - 15 Mins - Step4.1.jpg Size: 111 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP - 15 Mins - Step5.jpg Size: 114 KB
AFTAB Time Will Tell & Price Will Show
  • #804
  • Apr 7, 2010 10:05am Apr 7, 2010 10:05am
Quoting aftab
Hi Simone,

I am posting the sequence of trade set ups for today just to ensure I have got it right. Would you please check to see if I have got it right.

Step1 - is fine
Step 2 - the stop would go below .809 - right? Also, is the entry - right?
Step 3 - Profit target met - re-fib the targets & entry.
Step 4 - Pull the entry fib to past data which is the lower low. 2nd entry on short trade.

Step 5 - Redraw fibs since target has met and also entry fibs. What should one be looking at here now?

Thank you very much.
Steps 1-4 are fine, the final entry below the 50% on your chart was given at 6:45am. You could, in step 5 watch out for selling opportunities on the retrace. But because a higher low was created, you have to now consider bullish opportunities.
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  • #805
  • Apr 7, 2010 10:56am Apr 7, 2010 10:56am
First one was on GU, I got up late (still early for me ) and missed the beginning of the move, plus I was reinstalling my OS yesterday, so had to setup all the charts in VT Trader again. Anyway, once I fibbed the upmove from 5127 to 5280 I saw I missed on 6:00 candle, but I saw a small retrace and got in on a 6:15 candle with a TP a bit above 19.1 of breach fib. Looking at the charts now, I could've taken a bit more, but at that moment didn't have any reason to go any lower than I did.
http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/3...yongu40710.jpg

On EU I saw a nice setup forming on a 6:30 candle, waited for a retrace and entered on retrace candle of 6:45 with a smaller TP - just above the 34% of the breach fib, because of the support of 19.1% of the last major upmove. I could've gotten another 10 pips, but wanted to be safe, so I put TP at 3341

http://img714.imageshack.us/img714/9...ryoneu4710.jpg

Took another trade - long on GU , TP at 5265, below 5270 resistance of the last down move, added on a retrace of the 10:45 candle. Moved my SL 2 pips above BE before going to take a nap and got stopped out, but the move is still going on, potential 30-40 pips if didn't chicken out.

http://img695.imageshack.us/img695/4...ngongu4710.jpg

ALL coments and especially critic are most welcomed: the trades worked out, but please point out if I have not taken something else into consideration for future references. Thank you
p.s. oh, +79 pips for the day, with one trade still running with a SL at BE.
  • #806
  • Apr 7, 2010 12:07pm Apr 7, 2010 12:07pm
Vark what can I say! Daily growth! Keep it Going!
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  • #807
  • Apr 7, 2010 1:43pm Apr 7, 2010 1:43pm
Quoting simoneg
Vark what can I say! Daily growth! Keep it Going!
Thank you very much, when I grow up I want to be like you
  • #808
  • Apr 7, 2010 3:33pm Apr 7, 2010 3:33pm
Quoting Vark
Thank you very much, when I grow up I want to be like you
Hero Traders Live to see their Accounts Die!
  • #809
  • Edited 4:29pm Apr 7, 2010 4:23pm | Edited 4:29pm
nice setups on EU, "sell resistance"!!! that 3370 is also a yearly pivot, somebody said in chatroom. Oh well, I'm done for the day, that last long trade from the morning netted me 46 pips... it was a micro lot, though, as I was not sure in that trade.
Simone, thank you for those links about S/R trading - lots to think about!

Found this interesting info on reversal pattern candle formations: highly reliable and less. For me most interesting are the continuation patterns - my problem right now, that if I do not stick to the plan of just letting the trade run according to my SL and TP, I get nervous on every retrace and want to close the trade to protect the profit.
here they are , on teh bottom are links to bearish patterns and continuation:

http://www.fxwords.com/b/bullish-pev...ormations.html
  • #810
  • Apr 7, 2010 4:31pm Apr 7, 2010 4:31pm
Quoting Vark
nice setups on EU, "sell resistance"!!! that 3370 is also a yearly pivot, somebody said in chatroom. Oh well, I'm done for the day, that last long trade from the morning netted me 46 pips... it was a micro lot, though, as I was not sure in that trade.
Simone, thank you for those links about S/R trading - lots to think about!

Found this interesting info on reversal pattern candle formations: highly reliable and less. For me most interesting are the continuation patterns - my problem right now, that if I do not stick to the plan of just letting...
Hey Vark, no prob. Good to have a cut off point. Watching my longs a bit more before I close. Glad the S&R links were helpful. See you in the AM.
Hero Traders Live to see their Accounts Die!
  • #811
  • Apr 7, 2010 4:37pm Apr 7, 2010 4:37pm
Hello Simone,

According to your PDF manual (pg 15), for intraday fibs, we look for long entries if price closes above 61.8 and shorts below 38.2.

I notice we just use the Breach fib to enter in the direction of breach before price enters buy/sell zones of Intraday Fib, which can sometimes give false signals. March 26 would be a good example.

Do we still use intraday fib 38.2 & 61.8 for confirmation first, then pull the breach fib higher/lower for entries?
  • #812
  • Apr 7, 2010 4:45pm Apr 7, 2010 4:45pm
Quoting ahks
Hello Simone,

According to your PDF manual (pg 15), for intraday fibs, we look for long entries if price closes above 61.8 and shorts below 38.2.

I notice we just use the Breach fib to enter in the direction of breach before price enters buy/sell zones of Intraday Fib, which can sometimes give false signals. March 26 would be a good example.

Do we still use intraday fib 38.2 & 61.8 for confirmation first, then pull the breach fib higher/lower for entries?
Hi ahks,

The idea is to look for 50% breaches that converge with the intraday fib levels or other support and resistance. Can you tell me specifically what time March 26 and which pair so I can run through with you?
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  • #813
  • Apr 7, 2010 5:04pm Apr 7, 2010 5:04pm
Quoting simoneg
Steps 1-4 are fine, the final entry below the 50% on your chart was given at 6:45am. You could, in step 5 watch out for selling opportunities on the retrace. But because a higher low was created, you have to now consider bullish opportunities.
Thanks Simone. I did not have my fractals drawn. I am better understanding price movement.

I have also attached another chart wherein I have blanked off the price action and hypothetically drawn a lower low at the 50%. Would you have then considered the short?

Thank you very much Simone.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP - 15 Mins - Step5.1.jpg Size: 132 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP - 15 Mins - Step5.2.jpg Size: 135 KB
AFTAB Time Will Tell & Price Will Show
  • #814
  • Apr 7, 2010 5:19pm Apr 7, 2010 5:19pm
Quoting aftab
Thanks Simone. I did not have my fractals drawn. I am better understanding price movement.

I have also attached another chart wherein I have blanked off the price action and hypothetically drawn a lower low at the 50%. Would you have then considered the short?

Thank you very much Simone.
Yes probably, but still the higher low I was referring to and where we actually went that raised the caution on the sells.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GUEXPL.jpg Size: 414 KB
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  • #815
  • Apr 7, 2010 6:24pm Apr 7, 2010 6:24pm
Quoting simoneg
Hi ahks,

The idea is to look for 50% breaches that converge with the intraday fib levels or other support and resistance. Can you tell me specifically what time March 26 and which pair so I can run through with you?

For March 26, GBPUSD starting at 3 AM. Price went to the 80.9 intraday fib resistance and then back down to 19.1 before hitting Bull target #1.

1st entry was at 1.4852 and 2nd entry at 1.4862? This would have resulted in a loss, after moving 1st entry to BE, leaving 2nd entry to stop out at 1st entry level.
  • #816
  • Apr 7, 2010 6:31pm Apr 7, 2010 6:31pm
Quoting ahks
For March 26, GBPUSD starting at 3 AM. Price went to the 80.9 intraday fib resistance and then back down to 19.1 before hitting Bull target #1.

1st entry was at 1.4852 and 2nd entry at 1.4862? This would have resulted in a loss, after moving 1st entry to BE, leaving 2nd entry to stop out at 1st entry level.
Ok, lets post some charts and look at all the setups.
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  • #817
  • Apr 7, 2010 6:44pm Apr 7, 2010 6:44pm
First Setup starting from 3:00am.

As at 3:00am we have a high at 1.4892 and a low at 1.4854.
The breach fib is therefore drawn from the high to the lower low to that low at 1.4842.
The 3:00am and 3:15am candles close below the 50% breach.
The 3:30am candle retraces and gives us our first entry.
Notice how the 50% breach converges with the 38.2 or short level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade1.jpg Size: 411 KB
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  • #818
  • Apr 7, 2010 6:51pm Apr 7, 2010 6:51pm
The Market blows through both bear targets and so we wait for pullback and adjust our fib.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trade1comp.jpg Size: 390 KB
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  • #819
  • Apr 7, 2010 7:01pm Apr 7, 2010 7:01pm
Quoting simoneg
First Setup starting from 3:00am.

As at 3:00am we have a high at 1.4892 and a low at 1.4854.
The breach fib is therefore drawn from the high to the lower low to that low at 1.4842.
The 3:00am and 3:15am candles close below the 50% breach.
The 3:30am candle retraces and gives us our first entry.
Notice how the 50% breach converges with the 38.2 or short level.

That's strange. My Metatrader platform shows 3 AM EST at a later close.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 4hr.jpg Size: 114 KB
  • #820
  • Apr 7, 2010 7:04pm Apr 7, 2010 7:04pm
We now have a higher low as shown above so now are thinking "Beginning of UP Trend"

Our 50% breach fib is now drawn TO the low of the day FROM the previous high.

The 50% breach converges with the 19.1%.
We enter on the close above and failed test on the 5:30-5:45am candles.
There is a wave back at 9:30am for a second entry here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade2.jpg Size: 409 KB
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