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  • #11,301
  • Apr 7, 2010 9:30am Apr 7, 2010 9:30am
Quoting forexample
One more before I get back to my favourite top-down analysis, I hope any comments received help myself and others on the path. I hope it doesn't seem like I'm analysing "easy" charts, Strat said to pick ones we liked, this has made me some great pips since I became aware of it well into the trend.

EURCAD

Monthly:

Price has been tumbling and Strats momentum machines must have needed an oil change to keep up. Anyone still short from 1.60 (and a well-managed trade from the triple-touch on the D1 would still be) can bank their income for the year...
Your light is shining brightly!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,302
  • Apr 7, 2010 10:01am Apr 7, 2010 10:01am
Quoting No1Optimist
When I originally made this post (post#11014, page 736) entitled "ADVICE WANTED" I received a few replies which to put it mildly, were scornful of my query.

It was only a query, MY query

At that stage I had not gone very far through the thread, approximately 150 pages I think, and up to that point, Strat was still advising, only to trade shooting stars and hammers in combination with SR.

To me this looked like a good short, but I did not know how/if to trade it and of any apparent dangers.

I did not know if there were any other tools in Strat's...
When I originally made this post (post#11014, page 736) entitled "ADVICE WANTED" I received a few replies which to put it mildly, were scornful of my query.

It was only a query, MY query

Roger, we all misinterpreted and misunderstood your post, myself included and for that, I apologised

At that stage I had not gone very far through the thread, approximately 150 pages I think, and up to that point, Strat was still advising, only to trade shooting stars and hammers in combination with SR.

To me this looked like a good short, but I did not know how/if to trade it and of any apparent dangers.

Those of us that read your post THOUGHT you were meaning to go short after that bullish bar you posted. Alexandra: Post #11015

We did not read that you were asking how to get on board the South bound train.

I did not know if there were any other tools in Strat's arsenal which would have suggested a short trade.

The tools are PASR including rejection off SR AND Moving Averages in a confirmed down trend.

Purely on the basis of what I could see from the chart, a pull back to the MA, plus the points made in my original post) I thought that an an entry at the market on the next bar, (not the Sunday bar) with a stop of say 100pips, may have produced a profitable trade.

Yes, this is correct.

Well as of now, in 8 days, it has made over 400 pips, and counting.

Again my question is, would this have been a reasonable "Dr Joe" trade, applying the "kiss" principle?

This is just applying what Dr. Joe told me – “You keep on selling until it stops going down”. In other words, ride the trend for all it is worth.

I am very well aware that it does not follow Strats classic PA, SR rules; and BTW, I now have a reasonable understanding of these rules.

It does not follow my “basic PASR” teachings but it is in line with the rest of the teachings on this thread.

Also BTW, I used the term "slave" for the daily, instead of "worker", because I saw this term used on several earlier posts.

And like I told that poster, Abraham Lincoln abolished slavery in the US in 1865.

Roger, this sounds like you have an “axe to grind”; I hope it isn’t. This is not the place to do it and I am not the person you want to do it with.

We screwed up with our replies to you, we apologized, get over it and move on. We are here to help, not to hinder
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,303
  • Apr 7, 2010 10:13am Apr 7, 2010 10:13am
Quoting kaunasny
I'll take on Strat's picture, of what he was trying to say....
usdchf short?

I'll take on Strat's picture, of what he was trying to say.

“Trying to say!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?”

I don’t “try”, I just “say” it!

Strat's graph is different, gives a little nicer bond shooting star. I thought they should be the same as my feed closes at NY close. But still we were rejected by upper trendline and Daily still closed below it. Shorts below it still not trigered today at ( 2:00 NY time ) .

Although Strat doesn't have a Support zone but I have one on my graph 1.0650, so if we were sellers below bond shooting star ( really bond? ) we would be selling right at this support. Also more importantly we would be selling into nicely rising trendline combined with confluence of Boss 20 and Boss 50 !

My radar says not a good sell point yet! ... Yet is because we are forming a triangle and later on it could become attractive.
If price will respect Big Bosses 20 as it had till now , after we clear the 20 and 50 of the Boss and maybe some nice PA at triangle breakout could get me going.

Let me be clear on what YOU are “trying to say”:

You are showing a chart of PRICE breaking and CLOSING above a down TL and all you can think of is short?

PRICE is NOW heading for the confluence of resistance and the BIG down TL around 1.088.

Back to Post # 1 on Page 1 for you!

15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,304
  • Apr 7, 2010 10:15am Apr 7, 2010 10:15am
Quoting strat
EURUSD - Hey BIG BOSS, its rude to point!
Dear Dr Strat,
if I may..
There is this TL on Boss and Big Boss Charts which goes back to early 2002,
please correct me if I 'm wrong...
Also is there a breach on 61.8 ret? Do all these mean something?

Rubens
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  • #11,305
  • Apr 7, 2010 10:16am Apr 7, 2010 10:16am
Quoting LarryK
I know I have been a bit quiet recently and to some may look like just lurking, but I have been working hard at my PASR, with the limitations of not normally being able to set my trades at the most suitable time, usually I only see my charts 4hrs after my daily candle prints.

I am pleased to report that I managed a 1%+ profit last month, after a LONG time of regular but thankfully small losses due mostly to the little guys in my head messing with my trading.

I hope my attached chart showing my EURUSD trade will show I have TRIED to implement...
Doing good, Larry
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,306
  • Apr 7, 2010 10:24am Apr 7, 2010 10:24am
Quoting Money Magnet
Hello No1Optimist,
well as my subject says this is Strat's thread and not a Dr Joe thread even though Strat and others have refered to him on a number of times.

Only you have the answer to your question / query.
I'm intrested to se others replies to your query as it is a good post.
Hello No1Optimist,
well as my subject says this is Strat's thread and not a Dr Joe thread even though Strat and others have refered to him on a number of times.

Only you have the answer to your question / query.
I'm intrested to se others replies to your query as it is a good post.

OK, enough is enough. I think you owe No1Optimist an apology.

His post title was “Dr Joe rules” which I took to mean, Dr. Joe “governs” and NOT a set of “rules” laid out by Dr. Joe.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,307
  • Apr 7, 2010 10:58am Apr 7, 2010 10:58am
GBPUSD Monthly momentum is still down despite the retrace but it has slowed. You can't expect a drop of such magnitude as occurred in 2008 to be a sudden V recovery. Even though we are seeing LL and LH it is respecting the 1.7000 to 1.3700 range. Last months doji finished around the 50 fib and minor resistance at 1.5300ish but was cleanly rejected by the 61.8 fib and support at 1.4900. Verdict: A monthly pause with greater potential to the downside.

GBPUSD Weekly shows downward momentum has returned and is also making LL and LH. Week before lasts doji on support and last weeks BUEB that occured on the 61.8 fib and 1.4900 support are good reasons to consider going long on a retrace until you see that same candle stopped cold on the 50 fib and 1.5300 resistance. There are barriers in the way of this going back up to 1.5700, namely the 20 and weekly DSRI. In fact I would be watching those for a resumption of the down trend.

GBPUSD Daily shows overall downward momentum but has slowed to the point of putting it in it current range of 1.4900 to 1.5300. I'm calling it in a downward range as of the most recent confirmed swing when it failed to break the last swing high (Still LL and LH). Currently the 50 and 1.5300 are holding this thing down but most recent momentum is slowly pushing it up.

My forecast, not prediction (per Alexandra), is we will see price bandied about between the 20, 50 and 1.5300 with a probable break up towards DSRI and 1.5700. IF this occurs, I will be looking for PA to go short at 1.5700 with a partial TP at 1.5300 and let the rest ride for a resumption back down to 1.4900 or below.
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  • #11,308
  • Apr 7, 2010 11:11am Apr 7, 2010 11:11am
Quoting strat
Apart from needing to re-draw your TL on the Worker, you did good.
Thanks for the feedback. Redraw to here? I get stuck knowing when to leave a line in case it turns out to be a DSRI and when to follow swing low to swing low...I like TLs that hold from the 2nd touch projection onwards, ones that need to be redrawn every swing or two I get a bit unsure of.

Thanks for your time,

FE
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  • #11,309
  • Apr 7, 2010 11:28am Apr 7, 2010 11:28am
Quoting forexample
Thanks for the feedback. Redraw to here? I get stuck knowing when to leave a line in case it turns out to be a DSRI and when to follow swing low to swing low...I like TLs that hold from the 2nd touch projection onwards, ones that need to be redrawn every swing or two I get a bit unsure of.

Thanks for your time,

FE
Yes. You must always draw the current TL as that will provide dynamic SR.

"Old" TLs are very valuable as, sometime in the future, they will again provide SR. It is a question of chart management. If you left all the "old" TLs on, you would never be able to see PRICE.

The trick is to get the Mark I eyeball out and "see" where the "old" TLs will come into play, then draw them in.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,310
  • Apr 7, 2010 11:44am Apr 7, 2010 11:44am
When I get bored (usually 2 to 3 times per week), I try to look “busy” (so that the trouble and strife won’t give me “honey do” jobs), by trolling through the various threads here on FF.

So last week I was reading the “Trading Systems”, “Interactive Trading” and “Programming Discussion” threads. Very interesting!

While everyone has the freedom of choice, it surprised me that there are posters on this thread who claim to be students of PASR or purport to be trading PASR, whereas in actual fact they are sitting behind indicators and other “junk”!

You guys know who you are and I know who you are. If you have ever wondered why I don’t reply to your posts…………………………………………………………..

There is one guy on this thread who likes to convey that he is doing well trading PASR and usually posts “I’m in that one too since “forever”” and he turns up in discussions on a thread wanting an indicator for recent SR!

This is an indicator to identify recent SR of 20 bars or so ago. So one of the mql4 programmers kindly obliges and provides an indicator to show SR of 20 bars ago. The thread asks for variable input so the indicator is provided with variable input parameters so that SR can be identified for any period. The thread then requests that instead of identifying SR by highs and lows, the indicator does it using closing prices.

I don’t give a damn who posts where but to try and fool readers and especially yourself that you know PASR pisses me off!

We were born and blessed with the best indicator ever for SR identification. It does not need variable inputs. It is fully automatic and with the blink of an eye can identify SR by closing prices, highs, lows, opens or by any other level associated with price. It can identify SR from 2 bars ago to a million plus bars ago! It is infinitely programmable something not even this indicator or NASA’s mind blowing computers can claim (or ever will claim).

We are told we only use about 5% of our brain’s capability/potential. This is a typical example. We have the capability, now all we have to do is EDUCATE and TRAIN it to recognize SR.

By studying thousands and thousands of charts we EDUCATE and TRAIN it to recognize SR. We enlist the help of others to EDUCATE and TRAIN us.

We will NEVER, EVER educate it and train it as long as we rely on a crutch like an indicator to do it for us.

Finally, without any ego whatsoever, I have compared my SR levels with this indicator’s levels and I know where my money will go!

Then I troll through “Trading Systems” and on one of the threads is a guy who, after finding this thread, professed his undying love for PASR by telling us that he had been trading for “x” years, blew “x” accounts on short time frames, been through the “indicator trap”, and finally realized that PASR was the “only” way to go, etc., etc.

So there he is on a short time frame, indicator loaded trend following thread! Not only is he back to trading indicators but is now also using Heiken Ashi candles! Talk about his never ending quest for the Holy Grail! Oh well, we need liquidity from somewhere.

I also recognize a few other “ex students” on these indicator systems threads.

What really upsets me is that these people do not UNDERSTAND trading and particularly PRICE. OK, I’ve been there and done it but after finding YOUR way, don’t give in to your GREED emotions, especially the “Get Rich Quick” one.

For those posters who think they can get around this by using different User and Log In names, we at FF have identified those with Multiple User Names and in some cases, banned them!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,311
  • Edited 4:14pm Apr 7, 2010 12:15pm | Edited 4:14pm
This is the boss chart of USDCHF it is on my "watch list".

The last swing low bar was a hammer and it formed a higher HL. This is an observation that the boss may be indicating a trend change. We have to WAIT and WATCH to find out.

Also we are approaching the end of a wedge if it can bound upwards over 1.0860, I will watch for a retest of support on the worker and some PA to enter long.

I didn't post the worker because it has been posted by Strat and other members and in my view is awaiting direction from the BOSS.
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  • #11,312
  • Apr 7, 2010 12:33pm Apr 7, 2010 12:33pm
EURCHF Signal Service

The other day I got an email promoting a EURCHF Signal Service.

These things fascinate me so I went to their (crappy) website and studied it in fine detail.

I am always curious as to what is generating their signals and where they get their signals from. If you believe the stuff they write, the signals are generated from neural networks or complex algorithms or rocket science technology. Some even claim “Market Timing”, whatever that is.

When the few that show their past signals (if they are to be believed) and the chart, I go to my charts to see if I can duplicate that signal. There have been a few times where I can’t see where they got their signal from but in most cases, the signals appear to be coming from either a well known trend indicator (already discussed in previous posts) or, a cross of moving averages filtered by an oscillator.

I’m not clever enough to understand neural programming and networks but other than repeating history, how else can they give signals?

Anyway, this particular service didn’t show charts so I couldn’t check their signals.

But, signals for EURCHF?

Why EURCHF? This is made up from EURUSD and USDCHF, two pairs moving 98% inverse to each other.

Not only that but they are at the mercy of SNB who have no ethics whatsoever and will do whatever, whenever, to make sure their beloved currency is favourable (in their eyes) against the Euro.

So then I pull up their Performance chart – unbelievable! They are showing NEGATIVE pips for Nov and Dec 2009 and Jan 2010. Even my one legged, deaf and dumb, blind old man with asthma could have come away with POSITIVE pips in those months!

This must be a signal service for a short time frame as they claim they get between 8 to 12 signals per day each with a 20 pip profit.

Their cost for this amazing service is $199 per month which they say can be recovered with just one of their signals. That must mean you have to trade $10/pip!

Who are the people that buy this stuff?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,313
  • Apr 7, 2010 12:37pm Apr 7, 2010 12:37pm
Quoting pipfx
This is the boss chart of USDCHF it is on my "watch list".

The last swing low bar was a hammer and it formed a higher SL. This is an observation that the boss may be indicating a trend change. We have to WAIT and WATCH to find out.

Also we are approaching the end of a wedge if it can bound upwards over 1.0860, I will watch for a retest of support on the worker and some PA to enter long.

I didn't post the worker because it has been posted by Strat and other members and in my view is awaiting direction from the BOSS.
Good analysis, pipfx.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,314
  • Apr 7, 2010 2:02pm Apr 7, 2010 2:02pm
I believe this has relevance on here in the sense of 'why' you don't need it.

DIVERGENCE UNMASKED

#1 - We don't use it because we don't need it
#2 - We don't use it because it comes from another indicator we don't use

Why am I bothering to explain my dissection? Once I understand how something works, it's no longer a mystery and thus no longer forbidden fruit...and I like to take things apart.

The indicator in question - MACD - which Strat has already explained why we don't use it. However, I'm going to take a different approach.

This gets technical:

Firstly, a single MACD bar is simply the measurement between 2 MAs at a given point (how close they are together). The taller the bar the further apart the MAs are. Simple.

Secondly, divergence as we know it, is when a line drawn between 2 swing lows on the MACD angle in the opposite direction of the line drawn from the same 2 swing lows on price. Everyone knows that.

THE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN
Using 2 swing lows as the example:
- Divergence is an anomaly where price made a drop followed by consolidation followed by a very rapid drop.
- Put simply, on the initial drop, the MAs had time to draw apart. On the drop following the consolidation they did not.
- Because the MACD measures the distance between MAs it creates a smaller 'hill' on the second drop and thus divergence.

Why that has predictive power (removing the mystery):
Most already know this but when MA's begin flattening out in series, momentum is slowing and price is 'usually' slowing down to go in the other direction. As you know, it doesn't always.

Wait for it...wait for it...

Strat has been teaching us how to 'eyeball' divergence with ... yes, you guessed it: The Mark I Eyeball. (Even though we don't quite use it like that). We know it as slowing momentum and as an indication to watch what price does at that level (otherwise knows as SR).

Example:
EURUSD shows a drop to support at 1.3600 followed by consolidation with another very fast drop to 1.3200ish followed by a small rise/consolidation. You have just seen divergence WITH NO INDICATOR (if you don't believe me, put the standard MACD on your chart and take a look).

Why we don't use the MACD:
BECAUSE IT DOESN'T ALWAYS WORK LIKE IT SHOULD
Take a look at the last 5 days...Failed divergence and some poor saps money.

End of today's Mr. Wizard
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  • #11,315
  • Apr 7, 2010 2:54pm Apr 7, 2010 2:54pm
Quoting mstandifer
I believe this has relevance on here in the sense of 'why' you don't need it.

DIVERGENCE UNMASKED

#1 - We don't use it because we don't need it
#2 - We don't use it because it comes from another indicator we don't use

Why am I bothering to explain my dissection?...
Thank you for posting this!

I am one of the lucky ones that found this thread before I even opened a demo account.

I read several books on forex trading which did point out the benefits of indicators, but I found this thread and never looked back....

Nevertheless, it is interesting to understand an indicator and realize why we don't need them as you point out!
  • #11,316
  • Apr 7, 2010 2:57pm Apr 7, 2010 2:57pm
[quote=mstandifer;3617124]I believe this has relevance on here in the sense of 'why' you don't need it.

[quote=mstandifer;3617124]I believe this has relevance on here in the sense of 'why' you don't need it.

Hi Marcushttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Totally agree with your MACD description, being glued to the screen previously looking at the demon.

With the current EURUSD move off the supply DSRI it is so much clearer, I have to admit that I carefully consider the MA 20/50 out of the indicators what we can do here, otherwise the SR, DSRI and PA is sufficient to make decisions.

Just like the last entry of mine here.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
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  • #11,317
  • Apr 7, 2010 3:54pm Apr 7, 2010 3:54pm
Quoting mstandifer
I believe this has relevance on here in the sense of 'why' you don't need it.

DIVERGENCE UNMASKED

#1 - We don't use it because we don't need it
#2 - We don't use it because it comes from another indicator we don't use

Why am I bothering to explain my dissection?...
Very good, Marcus, very good!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,318
  • Apr 7, 2010 4:26pm Apr 7, 2010 4:26pm
Marcus’ post reminded me of something else I read on the “Trading Systems” thread.

I read on several threads that use moving averages as part of their system that “the shorter term average is above the longer term average and both are pointing up so price must follow”.

WHAT? HOLY F**K! WHAT A LOAD OF BOLLOCKS!


So in their world of “cause and effect”, MAs are “cause” and the “effect” is PRICE! Talk about getting the cart before the horse!

If you learn nothing else from this thread, learn that:

PRICE is LORD, KING, QUEEN and COUNTRY!

PRICE is the prime mover, the leader – anything after that is a follower!

PRICE is the “cause” that “effects” everything else!

When PRICE goes UP, everything associated with PRICE especially indicators, neural networks, complex algorithms, all derivatives of PRICE and all calculations using PRICE in their code/formulae FOLLOW and goes UP.

We don’t need moving averages to tell us that PRICE is going up – we can tell because today’s close is HIGHER than yesterday’s close!

We don’t need a 20 day moving average to tell us that PRICE is going up – we can look and SEE that the PRICE today is HIGHER than it was 20 days ago!

With our special built in computer we can, in the wink of an eye, without adjusting inputs or re-setting anything, see that PRICE today is higher than it was 5 days ago!

We don’t need anything except our Mark I eyeball to tell us about PRICE.

We don’t need any indicators or other derivatives of PRICE lagging behind the ACTION to tell us what PRICE is doing because we can get all our information from the source itself – PRICE

Duh!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,319
  • Apr 7, 2010 4:31pm Apr 7, 2010 4:31pm
Good evening! I want to thank Marcus for his very useful post.Tkanks,Thanks,Thanks!I'm one of those witch are coming for indicators land and I know how it is.It was very hard to quit by this bad habbit,but I have to confess you that more I study naked charts,more I see how wrong could be to be addicted by one of them.I studied that indicator for almost 2 years,I thought that I knew everything,now step by step I realise that I LOST 2 years of trading life.I was lost my common sence.Thanks,Thanks,Thanks! P.S. Strat,do you know if that guy sells a signal for these........?
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My humble opinion.
  • #11,320
  • Apr 7, 2010 4:33pm Apr 7, 2010 4:33pm
Quoting strat
Marcus’ post reminded me of something else I read on the “Trading Systems” thread....
Love it! Always great to see the old Strat back on form. This is why I allow myself a quick check in every night apres studies!! Price IS King. I'm starting to wonder if I even want my MAs anymore as I feel they can be a distraction from price too. Less clutter, less trendlines and just candles and SR seem best for me these days!!
Happy trading all!
Grim
Trade less and become more profitable!
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