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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #1,381
  • Edited 10:42am Apr 7, 2010 10:32am | Edited 10:42am
short A/u at .9280 has been taken SL=20 pips TP=40-50 pips

technically that box is bullish, but RRR wise I like to try short

+ U/Cad finally starts heading higher at smaller TFs
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  • #1,382
  • Apr 7, 2010 10:45am Apr 7, 2010 10:45am
Quoting shahab8b
short A/u at .9280 has been taken SL=20 pips TP=40-50 pips

technically that box is bullish, but RRR wise I like to try short

+ U/Cad finally starts heading higher at smaller TFs
Why SL at 93 if 9286/7 is the top of the box. Wouldn't you consider anything above to invalidate the trade?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #1,383
  • Apr 7, 2010 10:48am Apr 7, 2010 10:48am
Quoting MarcVUM
Why SL at 93 if 9286/7 is the top of the box. Wouldn't you consider anything above to invalidate the trade?
I don't like setting SL too close to R line, 20 pips means I'm wrong ,some may like to set SL tighter
  • #1,384
  • Apr 7, 2010 11:22am Apr 7, 2010 11:22am
Gold:
sell limit at 1159-1160 SL=1170 TP=1145&1118

reason
1-fib61%
2-previous R
3-weekly R3
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  • #1,385
  • Apr 7, 2010 12:29pm Apr 7, 2010 12:29pm
Quoting hellopip
Anyone interested at USD/cAD short at 1.0061?
Thanks
hi there, why 1.0061?
  • #1,386
  • Apr 7, 2010 12:43pm Apr 7, 2010 12:43pm
G/U : my thoughts

short 1.5269 has been taken , SL=1.5325 TP=1.5135 & 49
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  • #1,387
  • Edited 1:31pm Apr 7, 2010 12:52pm | Edited 1:31pm
U/J long at 93.30 SL=92.80 , will post the chart later

I don't like 3 bearish daily candles in a row , so keep SL in place
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  • #1,388
  • Apr 7, 2010 1:32pm Apr 7, 2010 1:32pm
Quoting shahab8b
G/U : my thoughts

short 1.5269 has been taken , SL=1.5325 TP=1.5135 & 49
Shahab, took the same trade, thinking a stoploss of .5285 would be sufficient to invalidate the diamond. Good eye!
  • #1,389
  • Apr 7, 2010 1:46pm Apr 7, 2010 1:46pm
Quoting shahab8b
U/J long at 93.30 SL=92.80 , will post the chart later

I don't like 3 bearish daily candles in a row , so keep SL in place
not what I expected-there is a case of an ab=cd pattern from the top of U/J that will end up to 92.70- I move my SL to make it tighter (from 92.80 to 93.15)
  • #1,390
  • Apr 7, 2010 1:50pm Apr 7, 2010 1:50pm
Quoting Accumulation
Shahab, took the same trade, thinking a stoploss of .5285 would be sufficient to invalidate the diamond. Good eye!
hi , you are right, I better keep it tighter -usd is being dumped all across the board- it doesn't worth betting on now
  • #1,391
  • Apr 7, 2010 1:52pm Apr 7, 2010 1:52pm
Quoting shahab8b
not what I expected-there is a case of an ab=cd pattern from the top of U/J that will end up to 92.70- I move my SL to make it tighter (from 92.80 to 93.15)

I'm looking for a very long term hold on this pair once it goes back to test that Weekly TL and shows proof of bounce on it. This could be the trade of the year... Might be able to hold this Carry trade for a year or more.
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  • #1,392
  • Apr 7, 2010 3:57pm Apr 7, 2010 3:57pm
Quoting mmccormac
I'm looking for a very long term hold on this pair once it goes back to test that Weekly TL and shows proof of bounce on it. This could be the trade of the year... Might be able to hold this Carry trade for a year or more.

that would be a good idea, but I cant do something like that, it's so difficult for me not to cash in a trade after couple of hundreds pips.
for now my long U/J from 93.30 has survived, i was about to move my SL to 93.15 that I saw the level hit then I waited and put the SL below the low (which is 93.14) my SL is 93.10. let's see if the trade can survive , I'm super bullish at this pair but I didn't expect the correction to be this dip, I still think we will see 92.70 before heading up again
  • #1,393
  • Apr 7, 2010 4:13pm Apr 7, 2010 4:13pm
Quoting shahab8b
G/U : my thoughts

short 1.5269 has been taken , SL=1.5325 TP=1.5135 & 49



G/U short from 1.5289 I moved SL to 1.5289

PS;I updated first page

open trade;
E/U short 1.3488
Long U/J 93.30
Short G/U 1.5269
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  • #1,394
  • Apr 7, 2010 4:22pm Apr 7, 2010 4:22pm
you have a pending euro short at 3460 - didn't that trigger today?

Quoting shahab8b
G/U short from 1.5289 I moved SL to 1.5289

PS;I updated first page

open trade;
E/U short 1.3488
Long U/J 93.30
Short G/U 1.5269
  • #1,395
  • Apr 7, 2010 4:34pm Apr 7, 2010 4:34pm
Quoting coolshades
you have a pending euro short at 3460 - didn't that trigger today?
what? high was 1.3409, how could be that triggered?
  • #1,396
  • Apr 7, 2010 4:39pm Apr 7, 2010 4:39pm
Quoting shahab8b
G/U short from 1.5289 I moved SL to 1.5289

G/u had made a diamond top in weekly TF -I had posted it that time in this thread
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  • #1,397
  • Apr 7, 2010 5:05pm Apr 7, 2010 5:05pm
Quoting shahab8b
that would be a good idea, but I cant do something like that, it's so difficult for me not to cash in a trade after couple of hundreds pips.
hey shah.... that is a difficulty we all battle....

//----

someone asked of the triangle target.... the magenta line and triangle are based on the .5 fib above prior retracement within 3 times the elasped time of that prior retracement..... those points create the 'potiental' triangle into the future as can be seen........

seeing is easy, the difficulty is waiting......h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #1,398
  • Apr 7, 2010 5:09pm Apr 7, 2010 5:09pm
Quoting puks
Hi guys,

Does it look like we'll have a risk aversion today? If so.

a) AUD will go down to .9220?
b) JPY crosses will go down, esp EURJPY towards 124.40-20?

I reduced my AUD shorts but still holding 'em in hope of worse employment data tomorrow combined with some profit taking+ risk aversion.

Come on aussie - give me those 40+ pips tonight.
Hi buddy,
do you know what might be the unemployment no?
  • #1,399
  • Apr 7, 2010 5:12pm Apr 7, 2010 5:12pm
U/Cad, it is the bottom finally?
I drew a new TL and the result is interesting
bottoming in U/Cad is in accordance with COT analysis which warns of a correction/reversal

we have classic bullish div in both daily and weekly
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  • #1,400
  • Apr 7, 2010 5:51pm Apr 7, 2010 5:51pm
Oanda traders are now 60% long AUD/USD in agreement with RPM and yet FXCM SSI is till showing short positions dominate and suggest more AUD/USD gains. How can we reliably trade sentiment when we cant reliably gauge it?
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