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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #1,361
  • Edited 5:46am Apr 7, 2010 5:36am | Edited 5:46am
G/U: I opened a Short G/U position at 1.5235 with a Sl= 1.5285 ,TP=TBD
on a retest of 1.5230-35 it's possible to enter this trade
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  • #1,362
  • Apr 7, 2010 5:49am Apr 7, 2010 5:49am
earlier today, I cashed in one E/J short from 125.25 at 126.05 (+80 pips) the 2nd trade SL>B/E

Long U/Cad trade from .9997 hit SL at .9980 (-17 pips)
  • #1,363
  • Apr 7, 2010 6:01am Apr 7, 2010 6:01am
will look to short below 9250, on a bpc set up. will post a chart as bpc develops, right now its not.

shabab, will stop posting my trade ideas if you wish, since they do not conform to your cot ideas; they are inline with my trend/break out system.
  • #1,364
  • Apr 7, 2010 6:08am Apr 7, 2010 6:08am
Quoting coolshades
will look to short below 9250, on a bpc set up. will post a chart as bpc develops, right now its not.

shabab, will stop posting my trade ideas if you wish, since they do not conform to your cot ideas; they are inline with my trend/break out system.
Hi there, the trade ideas are technical (I do them in the direction of my COT analysis) so everyone can post trade ideas as far as s/he is posting a chart to explain the reason.
  • #1,365
  • Apr 7, 2010 7:14am Apr 7, 2010 7:14am
I spy with my little eye a mixed bag of sorts. Mmmmm, don't know what to get my scalping paws on.

SSI: USDJPY Ratio Flips on 12% Decline in Shorts
Wednesday, 07 Apr 2010 09:33 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, DailyFX Research

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

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Intraday Highlight:

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.12 as nearly 53% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.01 as 50% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 0.2% lower than yesterday and 27.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 12.0% lower than yesterday and 20.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 6.1% weaker than yesterday and 2.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.08 as nearly 52% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.09 as 52% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 3.8% higher than yesterday and 16.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 11.6% lower than yesterday and 27.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.2% weaker than yesterday and 0.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.31 as nearly 57% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.53 as 60% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 12.7% higher than yesterday and 10.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.4% lower than yesterday and 15.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.0% stronger than yesterday and 12.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.01 as nearly 50% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.19 as 54% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 18.0% higher than yesterday and 7.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.8% lower than yesterday and 12.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 7.3% stronger than yesterday and 2.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 3.64 as nearly 78% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.37 as 77% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.8% higher than yesterday and 44.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.8% lower than yesterday and 2.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.0% stronger than yesterday and 17.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.28 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.63 as 62% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 10.6% lower than yesterday and 64.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 13.2% higher than yesterday and 52.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.6% weaker than yesterday and 35.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.65 as nearly 62% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.83 as 65% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 18.7% higher than yesterday and 8.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 7.2% higher than yesterday and 14.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 11.2% stronger than yesterday and 11.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.18 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.02 as 50% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 12.6% higher than yesterday and 17.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 6.2% lower than yesterday and 7.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.1% stronger than yesterday and 6.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.


USDX 4 Hour


Looks like more US$ gains to me.

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Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Market_Strategy_Daily_7_Apr_2010.pdf   163 KB | 239 downloads
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,366
  • Apr 7, 2010 7:58am Apr 7, 2010 7:58am
Hi guys,

Does it look like we'll have a risk aversion today? If so.

a) AUD will go down to .9220?
b) JPY crosses will go down, esp EURJPY towards 124.40-20?

I reduced my AUD shorts but still holding 'em in hope of worse employment data tomorrow combined with some profit taking+ risk aversion.

Come on aussie - give me those 40+ pips tonight.
  • #1,367
  • Apr 7, 2010 8:41am Apr 7, 2010 8:41am
Just wanted to say this is a amazing thread. Keep up the good work..
  • #1,368
  • Apr 7, 2010 8:43am Apr 7, 2010 8:43am
Quoting puks
Does it look like we'll have a risk aversion today?
doesn't look like it. Indices are slightly in the red but gold has just jumped about $8.00 and it seems our American friends are dumping their own dollar. You just can't keep those commodity currencies down. So much for my USDX chart looking like more gains were coming for US$.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,369
  • Apr 7, 2010 8:52am Apr 7, 2010 8:52am
the market is acting wierd today imho. when the equity markets go up, the dollar loses strength. today it is opposite. wtf!!!

who knows what commodity currencies will do when the oil inventories come out in 45 min. maybe that does not matter anymore. they have been discussing that for the past couple of days with oil going up. there are huge surplusses of oil, especially in the u.s. yet the price continues to go up. the dollar has gotten stronger, and oil goes up. again wtf???

i am confused about what direction i should follow anymore. but then again maybe i am looking at all of this the wrong way. maybe i should just look at the signals and not care what the market does as much as just make money, a little each day, and when the market makes up it's mind, then be prepared to make lots of money.

i think that is the best option.
  • #1,370
  • Apr 7, 2010 9:22am Apr 7, 2010 9:22am
Quoting shahab8b
G/U: I opened a Short G/U position at 1.5235 with a Sl= 1.5285 ,TP=TBD
on a retest of 1.5230-35 it's possible to enter this trade
I took profit on G/U short close to weekly pivot 1.5145 (+90*2=+180 pips)
seems its bouncing up and down in this rage so I'll short it again at 1.5235 ,SL=1.5285
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  • #1,371
  • Apr 7, 2010 9:24am Apr 7, 2010 9:24am
Quoting Sierra8561
Just wanted to say this is a amazing thread. Keep up the good work..
you are welcome
  • #1,372
  • Apr 7, 2010 9:33am Apr 7, 2010 9:33am
Quoting puks
Hi guys,

Does it look like we'll have a risk aversion today? If so.

a) AUD will go down to .9220?
b) JPY crosses will go down, esp EURJPY towards 124.40-20?

I reduced my AUD shorts but still holding 'em in hope of worse employment data tomorrow combined with some profit taking+ risk aversion.

Come on aussie - give me those 40+ pips tonight.
Hi mate,

you did good to reduce A/U short ,it is so resilient and hardly give us a chance to short it, the pair really frustrated me.
  • #1,373
  • Apr 7, 2010 9:41am Apr 7, 2010 9:41am
E/U

you may think it's too late to enter but I'm so bearish in this pair

already hold a short from 1.3488 (+130 pips so far) and I've been scalping all the way down (short side of course)

my thought process since I took the 2 shorts on Fri (one already cashed in)
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  • #1,374
  • Apr 7, 2010 9:46am Apr 7, 2010 9:46am
Quoting shahab8b
I took profit on G/U short close to weekly pivot 1.5145 (+90*2=+180 pips)
seems its bouncing up and down in this rage so I'll short it again at 1.5235 ,SL=1.5285
did any one take the short? it was just one touch, if you didnt set a sell limit order you probably missed it
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  • #1,375
  • Apr 7, 2010 9:51am Apr 7, 2010 9:51am
E/J , you cant get into a trade like this without a buy limit order

that's the reason you need to plan in advance and set the orders, you may fail some times but the reward is bigger
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  • #1,376
  • Apr 7, 2010 10:04am Apr 7, 2010 10:04am
Quoting shahab8b
did any one take the short? it was just one touch, if you didnt set a sell limit order you probably missed it
Are you back in going short?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #1,377
  • Apr 7, 2010 10:06am Apr 7, 2010 10:06am
Anyone interested at USD/cAD short at 1.0061?
Thanks
  • #1,378
  • Apr 7, 2010 10:08am Apr 7, 2010 10:08am
shahab8b, its a full time job keeping up w/ your trades... any plans on twittering out trades?
  • #1,379
  • Apr 7, 2010 10:10am Apr 7, 2010 10:10am
Quoting MarcVUM
Are you back in going short?
no I'm not, I took profit 1st at +80 pips but it reversed and I had to close my 2nd at +40 pips. I didn't take short because I'm still unsure if U/J wants to come down atm
  • #1,380
  • Apr 7, 2010 10:16am Apr 7, 2010 10:16am
Quoting rpmfxtrader
shahab8b, its a full time job keeping up w/ your trades... any plans on twittering out trades?
not atm, may be in future, but my point here is to show how it is doable to develop a method to be more of a winner than a loser.
it's better everyone can learn the way so they can decide where to enter and where to exit when nobody is around
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