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Domino's Price and order flow trading

  • #201
  • Apr 7, 2010 5:08am Apr 7, 2010 5:08am
i am posting a marked up chart from a trade that i did not take yesterday. if you go back a few pages you can see i was following it but did not take the entry. the context was there, the OF reversed and it held the previous low but, in doing so it retraced too deep for my liking. i didn't enter even if the context was valid and the trigger was good. it was just one of those that i decided i have to let pass
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The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #202
  • Apr 7, 2010 5:19am Apr 7, 2010 5:19am
Quoting hornet
i am posting a marked up chart from a trade that i did not take yesterday. if you go back a few pages you can see i was following it but did not take the entry. the context was there, the OF reversed and it held the previous low but, in doing so it retraced too deep for my liking. i didn't enter even if the context was valid and the trigger was good. it was just one of those that i decided i have to let pass
Ok...quite clear now...thanks!!
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #203
  • Apr 7, 2010 5:23am Apr 7, 2010 5:23am
Quoting domino
If it blows through it I dont count it.. it has to react to it.. so blow through and pull back touch and continue would be 1.. how close it gets before its counted will depend on time frame getting close to a zone 15 pips away on a weekly frame is pretty close but 15 pips away is pretty far on a 15Min.. so it would depend on frame but I only count it if its really really close we are just looking for how many time price reacts to it.. and your not making the trade anybetter lieing to yourself about questionable touches.. if its questionable dont...
Thanks for the pointers domino.
  • #204
  • Apr 7, 2010 6:39am Apr 7, 2010 6:39am
here's another long entry on Bund 30mins. i did not enter because i only take the first 2 pushes per direction (3 if it is just before market open on FX). after that i wait for market to settle down and either turn or refresh on direction.
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The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #205
  • Apr 7, 2010 6:51am Apr 7, 2010 6:51am
Quoting hornet

i wait for market to settle down and either turn or refresh on direction
Hi, can you explain what that means please, do you mean it could either reverse direction or continue in the same direction?

Apart from consolidation what other choices are there?

I'm not getting this 'order flow' stuff at all. If price goes up it means there were more buy orders than sell orders, and if price goes down it means there were more sell orders than buy orders? Really, is that it, is that the extent of what you're doing in this thread?
  • #206
  • Apr 7, 2010 6:53am Apr 7, 2010 6:53am
Very good analysis Hornet. All yours. Yes Bund broke Daily resistance. All Higher Highs and Higher Lows.

sisse
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Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #207
  • Apr 7, 2010 7:22am Apr 7, 2010 7:22am
Quoting pipmutt
Hi, can you explain what that means please, do you mean it could either reverse direction or continue in the same direction?

Apart from consolidation what other choices are there?

I'm not getting this 'order flow' stuff at all. If price goes up it means there were more buy orders than sell orders, and if price goes down it means there were more sell orders than buy orders? Really, is that it, is that the extent of what you're doing in this thread?
Since I trade 30mins, I take retracements entries from the first 2 pushes. Being such a low timeframe I expect market to slow down and maybe reverse. So if it reverses I go the other way if I get a godd trigger. Before I can go long again, I want it to break a support and then resume a fresh upward move. For me, this up move is over. I don't want to push it too much. So either down or up again after some stops have been run the other way.

It is not about more buyers than sellers it is all about WHERE those buyers and sellers are.
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #208
  • Apr 7, 2010 7:27am Apr 7, 2010 7:27am
Quoting sisse
Very good analysis Hornet. All yours. Yes Bund broke Daily resistance. All Higher Highs and Higher Lows.

sisse
It was not an analysis, I was just following the market. I let the market dictate my moves. As I said before, I never try to anticipate the market. Not anymore at least.
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #209
  • Apr 7, 2010 7:40am Apr 7, 2010 7:40am
Quoting hornet

It is not about more buyers than sellers it is all about WHERE those buyers and sellers are.
Thanks for the explanation but it's all about more buyers or sellers, that's what moves price isn't it, buyers and sellers orders? But that aside, the problem is we don't know where they are, we haven't even got a way of guessing where they are, how many of them there are, or more importantly what size they are.

For example we might see several tests of a previous high. We could either take that as a sign that it's probably going to hold (resistance) and sell or we could take it as a sign that sell orders at that level are nearly done and buy on the expectation of a break. How can we tell, what makes one scenario more probable than another?

You'll have to forgive my ignorance, I'm but a simple squiggly line TA trader.
  • #210
  • Apr 7, 2010 7:47am Apr 7, 2010 7:47am
Quoting pipmutt
Thanks for the explanation but it's all about more buyers or sellers, that's what moves price isn't it, buyers and sellers orders? But that aside, the problem is we don't know where they are, we haven't even got a way of guessing where they are, how many of them there are, or more importantly what size they are.

For example we might see several tests of a previous high. We could either take that as a sign that it's probably going to hold and sell or we could take it as a sign that sell orders at that level are nearly done and...
Sure, more buyers move markets up and more sellers move markets down. But WHERE do they move to is the important point. So it is about WHERE those orders are, markets need to fill orders to be able to move. Without orders they don't move. So understanding where the orders are is of primary importance. We don't guess, we know where they are. They are above peaks and below troughs. If the move is real, it will hold above the previous high you mention. If it is just manipulation for the market to fill those orders (stop running), then it will look like just another test.


Still talking about intraday moves only. From daily up it is a different story.
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #211
  • Apr 7, 2010 8:03am Apr 7, 2010 8:03am
Quoting hornet

We don't guess, we know where they are. They are above peaks and below troughs.
Sure, there are probably orders above/below highs/lows as it's an obvious place for stops, but how do we know there aren't orders actually at the peaks and troughs themselves, we're not going to find out until after the event. There could be bigger orders at the peaks and troughs than stop runners can fill, maybe they'll keep trying, maybe not, maybe eventually they'll soak up all those orders and carry on to run the stops, maybe they won't, maybe they don't want to, maybe stops are further out.....etc etc etc.

Aren't there just too many maybe's to be able to decide which scenario is more probable to trade?

I'm not trying to be obtuse here, I'm just trying to get a handle on the way you and others in this thread are thinking. Thanks for taking the time to explain by the way.
  • #212
  • Apr 7, 2010 8:08am Apr 7, 2010 8:08am
Quoting pipmutt
the problem is we don't know where they are, we haven't even got a way of guessing where they are, how many of them there are, or more importantly what size they are.
That's no problem.

You just need to find something like this. See the picture below is giving you every detail you asked for.

But the question here is that If you don't have this information. then how could you interpret it by just watching a chart and say you are trading the order flow?
.
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  • #213
  • Apr 7, 2010 8:16am Apr 7, 2010 8:16am
Quoting nasir.khan
That's no problem.

You just need to find something like this. See the picture below is giving you every detail you asked for.

But the question here is that If you don't have this information. then how could you interpret it by just watching a chart and say you are trading the order flow?
.
I absolutely agree and that's my problem, as far as I can see it's not even close to trading order flow in the traditional sense, and as we don't have that kind of information in forex it's not something we can do anyway. I realize some people use futures data or their bršker's book but neither are representative of the OTC spot market, it's a law unto itself as far as I can see, traders don't tend to openly publish their intentions in advance!

I'm just trying to get a handle on what these guys are actually trying to do, and what they're looking at to try and accomplish it.
  • #214
  • Apr 7, 2010 8:27am Apr 7, 2010 8:27am
Quoting pipmutt
Sure, there are probably orders above/below highs/lows as it's an obvious place for stops, but how do we know there aren't orders actually at the peaks and troughs themselves, we're not going to find out until after the event. There could be bigger orders at the peaks and troughs than stop runners can fill, maybe they'll keep trying, maybe not, maybe eventually they'll soak up all those orders and carry on to run the stops, maybe they won't, maybe they don't want to, maybe stops are further out.....etc etc etc.

Aren't there just too many...
Sure, too many maybes. The same applies for any method, system, strategy. There is no certainty in trading. I am not interested in maybes. I am interested in facts. If the market moves I follow. If it doesn't I don't anticipate it, I wait for it to move. As you say after the event we will know, I wait for the event. If it's a real move (not just stop running) I follow trying to get a piece of the cake, otherwise I let others play. Once a level is conquered (not just stop running) we know what the next destination is.

this is a picture that domino posted yesterday. Hope it helps
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The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #215
  • Apr 7, 2010 8:31am Apr 7, 2010 8:31am
Quoting nasir.khan
That's no problem.

You just need to find something like this. See the picture below is giving you every detail you asked for.

But the question here is that If you don't have this information. then how could you interpret it by just watching a chart and say you are trading the order flow?
.
i am not interested in the sizes, i just see where the levels are on charts. that is all i need. i look at them as steps in a stairway. if we want to go up, we need to step on the first one, then on the next one and so on. until a step fails, then i start moving down.
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #216
  • Apr 7, 2010 8:33am Apr 7, 2010 8:33am
Quoting pipmutt
I absolutely agree and that's my problem, as far as I can see it's not even close to trading order flow in the traditional sense, and as we don't have that kind of information in forex it's not something we can do anyway. I realize some people use futures data or their bršker's book but neither are representative of the OTC spot market, it's a law unto itself as far as I can see, traders don't tend to openly publish their intentions in advance!

I'm just trying to get a handle on what these guys are actually trying to do, and what they're looking...

Futures data can be statistical rappresentative as is about 7% of all Forex Market.

Lubo.
If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
  • #217
  • Edited 9:02am Apr 7, 2010 8:41am | Edited 9:02am
Quoting hornet

Once a level is conquered (not just stop running) we know what the next destination is.

this is a picture that domino posted yesterday. Hope it helps
As usual more answers lead to more questions!

Ok, so you wait until you see where price has gone before you make your move (trade). I don't quite understand how that works out but ok, let's leave that for a minute. (edit: cancel that, I see you're trading pull backs after a trend is established)

How do you know when a level is conquered? A move above resistance could be a stop hunt which gathers momentum and triggers more stops (the stop runners motive), and then positioning for a sell off at those better (higher) prices, or it could be a genuine directional move based on fundamentals, how can you tell? Again, you're only going to know after the event. How do you decide which scenario is more probable and either fade the spike or trade in it's direction, perhaps on a pull back?


Quoting hornet
i look at them as steps in a stairway. if we want to go up, we need to step on the first one, then on the next one and so on. until a step fails, then i start moving down.
This is beginning to sound a lot like TA rather than order flow. Trading retracements in the direction of the overall trend is basic TA stuff isn't it? And every trader's dilemma is where will a trend end, so he can exit and/or get in the reversal early. How do you know when those stairs run out?
  • #218
  • Apr 7, 2010 8:43am Apr 7, 2010 8:43am
Quoting pipmutt
I agree, it's not even close to trading order flow in the traditional sense, and as we don't have that kind of information in forex it's not something we can do anyway. I realize some people use futures data or their bršker's book but neither are representative of the OTC spot market, it's a law unto itself as far as I can see, traders don't tend to openly publish their intentions in advance!
I work in a mutual fund as an assistant. Our trading desk has moved to another city. But i remember the days when our Equity Fund Manager was trading here.

He would observe this window i posted above all of the day. After picking a stock he would start Buying that very stock silently. Ok when he is done he would start calling other People/Friends/Brokers tipping them to buy the stock that he is already done buying. Obviously he now had bought pretty much on the bottom prices and when his tiped ones would start to act there will be a spike.

and this is where the fun begins every one is buying and he would be offloading his position, shouting at his traders to execute his trades quickly, banging the desk with joy and all that.lol
.
  • #219
  • Apr 7, 2010 8:43am Apr 7, 2010 8:43am
This can be a way to look at order flow, with delta bars, delta volume, volume filter order size and volume profile.

Lubo.
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If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
  • #220
  • Apr 7, 2010 8:50am Apr 7, 2010 8:50am
Quoting LuboLabo
Futures data can be statistical rappresentative as is about 7% of all Forex Market.

Lubo.
Interesting, do you have a reference for that please?
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