Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

G'day M.A.C.Doug, nice trade, when I saw the rates raised I wanted to take long but I didn't do it due to other reasons. are you looking to take long on A/u again?

buy limit E/J turned to be a good one touch trade

Hey Shahab8b,
Great thread! I'm going to start from the beginning and read through it. Hopefully I can contribute to it. Catch you during London hours I see Marc is on this thread too. Good group of traders!

thanx , you are welcome.

any one riding this long E/J with me? +45 *2 pips so far

Not me but your U/J long at 93.60 is working out quite well! Thanks.

Yes, and also AUD/JPY shorter term as risk is on and the carry is just to tempting. Really liked your EUR/JPY entry.
I had a crazy idea as a longer term outlook that i will get a more rational opinion on from the guys and girls here - AUD/USD correlation to risk breaks down (already beginning?). Commodities become the new safe haven play (already beginning?) after a bubble forms in USD and then bursts. The Aussie benefits from this even as stocks fall, a complete reversal of the current correlation - so AUD by proxy, becomes the new safe haven currency complete with carry benefit. Its a big call, perhaps just a fanciful idea of mine but I think 1.05 is possible in the brave new world that approaches and the rest of the world will have no choice but to suck it up. Crazy?
AUD/JPY went well for me during early Asia today after buying into weakness

Well there is no gap on Oanda as per usual. That chart I posted was Netdania.com which opens at 9.15 pm GMT. I think Hayseed was talking about a long forgotten gap that was just filled on NZD. This one might take a few weeks as well. With oil in la la land, this is going to give even more support for CAD and we won't forget that the RBC were advising their citizens to prepare for parity so there's no opposition there. I see we have building permits and Ivey PMI for CAD today. I won't be shorting CAD just because of my charts. From the sentiment read tonight it doesn't look like traders are adding to their long USD positions though.

SSI: An Aggressive Rally from USDCHF Encourages a Jump in Retail Shorts
Tuesday, 06 Apr 2010 19:07 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:



Intraday Highlight:

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.43 as nearly 59% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.00 as 67% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 11.0% lower than yesterday and 55.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 23.8% higher than yesterday and 7.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.6% stronger than yesterday and 35.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.18 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.22 as 55% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 13.9% higher than yesterday and 3.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 20.6% lower than yesterday and 9.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.0% weaker than yesterday and 2.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.46 as nearly 59% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.32 as 57% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 0.9% lower than yesterday and 6.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 9.9% higher than yesterday and 26.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.3% stronger than yesterday and 9.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.17 as nearly 54% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.40 as 58% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 9.3% higher than yesterday and 1.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 8.5% lower than yesterday and 7.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.1% weaker than yesterday and 3.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.02 as nearly 50% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.29 as 56% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 16.6% higher than yesterday and 19.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 11.4% lower than yesterday and 3.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.8% stronger than yesterday and 11.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 3.92 as nearly 80% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.40 as 81% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.6% lower than yesterday and 58.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 9.2% higher than yesterday and 21.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.4% weaker than yesterday and 16.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.82 as nearly 65% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.59 as 61% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 10.2% lower than yesterday and 7.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.0% higher than yesterday and 23.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.1% weaker than yesterday and 0.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.00 as nearly 50% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.05 as 51% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 9.1% higher than yesterday and 35.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 14.8% higher than yesterday and 18.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 11.9% stronger than yesterday and 10.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

I don't see the usd bubble bursting anytime soon, in fact I think it is just getting going, charts suggest 88.5 is not at all unlikely this year for dollar index. I'm not sure how the aud is going to go if that kind of strength plays out.

neither do I, infact it isnt even a bubble yet, I see USD strength to the point of bubble first. The outlook is 1-2 years. I have re-worded the post so its less confusing

ok gotcha

Ya, nice little ride here so far.

ROFL - I love Burger King and they get many donations. What I don't like is the price. For two main meals and a child's meal it costs about £15.00. I can get a couple of really good steaks + the trimmings for that. Why have burger outside when I can have steak at home

Waiting for a pullback on A/J is like waiting for the Easter Bunny to come. This long forgotten gap on weekly chart has been filled now.

Easter Bunny and Burger King et al have much to answer for Both are black-listed from here on.

I rather think UJ will run into some resistance around 94.30. The first retracement (when exhausted) is always an excellent place to get on board in the opposite direction. The possible scenario for the day ahead -

Europe has not been buying on London open of late (from 7am London time), but selling. The selling either stops just before US open (7am NYC time) when the counter-trend buying kicks in, or it accelerates south as fresh money adds its weight to the move already in progress.

Need to watch the S&P futures today especially - if London begins selling as they have of recent, the Greece troubles will be driving it. The air is rather thin on the S&P right now (very low volumes the last few months). The US, being our wonderfully narcissistic friends that they are, tend to be very pre-occupied with the Dow, unless London leads with the fear on Greece, sufficiently so as to invade NYC happy land with a Greek tradegy in progress.

Asia tends to hold price steady or gently nudge it up a little ahead of London opening in the belief that London will take the European currencies/Com dollars higher - they may be disappointed today (or not, never any guarantees in a market that runs on the balance of probabilities).

btw, don't trade when Frankfurt has control of the floor between 6am and 7am London time, they have a habit of getting it wrong or waffling with uncertainty ahead of London opening.

Never forget that when the big money is committed to a long term position, there is a propencity for that same money to drive price higher/lower to value-add to positions already in progress (think SNB).

Ought to be a fascinating day ahead.

ouch.....

//----

that made me forget what i was fixin to post.....h

we love you guys, really just taking the Mickey

7 minutes to the big money arriving, Frankfurt may have excelled itself today

If your platform doesn't have the S&P futures on live feed 24/5, you can get it here (download the free demo platform)...

http://www.brocompany.com/brokerage-...-demo-account/

this platform also has oil, the dollar index and everything else, including all the international indices and most of the major US stocks... just move mouse over the market symbols to see what each one is

and here is a free international desk top digital clock... set the 4 time zones to New York, London, Frankfurt, Tokyo

http://qlock.com/download/ scroll down for the free download version

entered at 3370.missed an opportunity to enter at 3400. sleep.

The AudUsd has been bought heavily in the Asian and UK sessions.

If price breaks .9240 stops should be triggered and the price should continue much lower. The Herd meter (RPM) has gone from 1 to 1.57, showing there are now 1.57 buyers for every seller. These latest buyers will most likely have stops resting below .9245

Fundamental Support?
TimesOnline - http://bit.ly/aVqGOv

“Copper traders spooked by stockpiles
Predictions of a price collapse imply that the Chinese will suddenly stop wanting homes with fridges and air conditioning units.”

Watch copper prices as well for confirmation of downward trend in AUD.

http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/i...42BE/image.png