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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #1,281
  • Apr 6, 2010 10:33am Apr 6, 2010 10:33am
The current SSI reading and RPM are in the low 1's. This indicates there are slightly more buyers for every seller.

Although this is not a high ratio, the change in the trend is significant.
You can see in the chart below that the EurUsd is making new lows.

The RPM (also known as the herd indicator) has gone from showing a net sell position on April 5th to a net long as traders add to their long positions trying to pick bottoms.

My 2c's on UsdCad coming up after intermission.

Live herding charts avail here.

http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/i...8D9C/image.png
  • #1,282
  • Apr 6, 2010 10:41am Apr 6, 2010 10:41am
Quoting shahab8b
G/U just bounced from weekly pivot,
I try to short:

sell limit at 1.5225 SL=1.5300
TP 1.5135& 1.50
my sell limit order got filled, SL=1.53
  • #1,283
  • Apr 6, 2010 10:48am Apr 6, 2010 10:48am
E/J
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  • #1,284
  • Apr 6, 2010 10:52am Apr 6, 2010 10:52am
Quoting shahab8b
my sell limit order got filled, SL=1.53
G/u short from 1.5225
SL changed to 1.5250
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  • #1,285
  • Apr 6, 2010 11:05am Apr 6, 2010 11:05am
Quoting shahab8b
G/u short from 1.5225
SL changed to 1.5250
I got in at 1.5237 (200ma on 15min) What is your TP Shahab?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #1,286
  • Apr 6, 2010 11:07am Apr 6, 2010 11:07am
E/U

I'm short from 1.3488 so I wont trade this, but I think it might work out.
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  • #1,287
  • Apr 6, 2010 11:08am Apr 6, 2010 11:08am
Quoting MarcVUM
I got in at 1.5237 (200ma on 15min) What is your TP Shahab?

if you took only one position, TP at weekly pivot around 1.5135 or some pips higher
  • #1,288
  • Apr 6, 2010 11:09am Apr 6, 2010 11:09am
Quoting shahab8b
if you took only one position, TP at weekly pivot around 1.5135 or some pips higher
Cool. That's were I was targeting.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #1,289
  • Apr 6, 2010 11:09am Apr 6, 2010 11:09am
i am short 5230 ish off the 5min pin bar

Quoting shahab8b
if you took only one position, TP at weekly pivot around 1.5135 or some pips higher
  • #1,290
  • Apr 6, 2010 11:10am Apr 6, 2010 11:10am
Quoting coolshades
i am short 5230 ish off the 5min pin bar
good keep SL at 1.5250 above that I dot like shorting cable
  • #1,291
  • Apr 6, 2010 11:12am Apr 6, 2010 11:12am
are you still short?

i am inclined to take another short now, since price is not going convincingly long either.
  • #1,292
  • Apr 6, 2010 11:15am Apr 6, 2010 11:15am
Quoting coolshades
are you still short?

i am inclined to take another short now, since price is not going convincingly long either.
I closed my A/u short from .9200 on Mon at B/E, but in 15 min TF it might be a double top
  • #1,293
  • Apr 6, 2010 11:19am Apr 6, 2010 11:19am
ok, i thought you had a short scalp from 9255.

Quoting shahab8b
I closed my A/u short from .9200 on Mon at B/E, but in 15 min TF it might be a double top
  • #1,294
  • Apr 6, 2010 11:25am Apr 6, 2010 11:25am
Incase anyone is in USDCAD positions... here is my sentiment analysis on the UsdCad:

Traders continue to pick bottoms by opening new positions. Traders as a group are not however, adding to long positions.

When the sentiment is increasing it signifies that the ratio of buyers to sellers is increasing, most likely because traders are adding to long positions. When the sentiment ratio is flat it signifies that the ratio of buyers/seller is also flat.

In this case, a leveling out of sentiment indicators most likely signifies that traders are going long at bottoms, placing stops close to entries, being stopped out as price goes lower, and re-entering at new lows. This would not affect the buyer/seller ratio and make the sentiment indicators (SSI & RPM) flat.

Stops still expected lower and where there are stops, there are profits for bigger players.

Live Sentiment charts here.

http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/i...99E6/image.png
  • #1,295
  • Apr 6, 2010 11:27am Apr 6, 2010 11:27am
Quoting coolshades
ok, i thought you had a short scalp from 9255.
I'm not discussing my scalping here because there is no point of doing so, I dont like people who come after a move and saying "yea I did this and that".
  • #1,296
  • Apr 6, 2010 11:30am Apr 6, 2010 11:30am
Quoting rpmfxtrader
Incase anyone is in USDCAD positions... here is my sentiment analysis on the UsdCad:

Traders continue to pick bottoms by opening new positions. Traders as a group are not however, adding to long positions.

When the sentiment is increasing it signifies that the ratio of buyers to sellers is increasing, most likely because traders are adding to long positions. When the sentiment ratio is flat it signifies that the ratio of buyers/seller is also flat.

In this case, a leveling out of sentiment indicators most likely signifies that traders are...
hi there, yea I was among those bottom pickers (still long from .9997) ,atm it's ok, but may be later on I re-evaluate it
  • #1,297
  • Apr 6, 2010 11:39am Apr 6, 2010 11:39am
as I said before on this chart, I prefer CAD over AUD, may be that would be explainable with CAD rates hike in sight (I think they will be the first one to hike among others)
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  • #1,298
  • Apr 6, 2010 11:40am Apr 6, 2010 11:40am
Quoting shahab8b
look at my E/U chart and the E/U chart atm
Yeah, nice trade Maybe you can lend some of your profits to LA. They are going to run out of money on 5th May. Only need $90 million to get them over this hurdle.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,299
  • Apr 6, 2010 11:43am Apr 6, 2010 11:43am
The UsdCad is at an interesting point... traders do not seem to have much conviction with their long positions, which could signal a turn-around...

I'd keep my eyes peeled on any increase in the RPM ratio above 2.2... if everyone is buying with you, then you have a problem... but if traders do not add to long positions, it may be near a bottom.

Your EurUsd trade is looking better and better, as the RPM keeps going up at every 'bottom'...
  • #1,300
  • Apr 6, 2010 11:46am Apr 6, 2010 11:46am
Quoting Patience
Yeah, nice trade Maybe you can lend some of your profits to LA. They are going to run out of money on 5th May. Only need $90 million to get them over this hurdle.
I read that too, they should ask G.Soros not me
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