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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #22,181
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:41am Apr 6, 2010 9:41am
i dont know now, seems that the panorama is changing

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  • #22,182
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:46am Apr 6, 2010 9:46am
Quoting wuming79
Are you looking for pullback on USDJPY daily chart? 4hr EMA21 just broke with trend line support broken too.
Yes, I was looking for TC from 21, but since it is broken now, I'll wait. There are two possible scenarious, the trend may resume, in this case I would like to see some emotions. Or after closing below 21 pullback and then to the 89.
  • #22,183
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:50am Apr 6, 2010 9:50am
Quoting emiliolopez
It would have been nice to enter right at the signal. What do you think about entering now?

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There is no signal. The rule says: after the price has closed below/above 21 wait for the pullback and then take TC to the 89.
  • #22,184
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:56am Apr 6, 2010 9:56am
Sorry, what does TC means?
  • #22,185
  • Apr 6, 2010 11:18am Apr 6, 2010 11:18am
Quoting ira
There is no signal. The rule says: after the price has closed below/above 21 wait for the pullback and then take TC to the 89.
im learning this and would like to have this clear, hope you dont mind me asking this:

so this is not a valid signal because the price hasnt closed below the 21?

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  • #22,186
  • Apr 6, 2010 12:39pm Apr 6, 2010 12:39pm
TC = Trend Continuation

Quoting emiliolopez
Sorry, what does TC means?
  • #22,187
  • Apr 6, 2010 1:06pm Apr 6, 2010 1:06pm
Am I correct here?
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  • #22,188
  • Apr 6, 2010 5:13pm Apr 6, 2010 5:13pm
Hi, i see 2 possible:

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  • #22,189
  • Apr 6, 2010 6:00pm Apr 6, 2010 6:00pm
another one?
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  • #22,190
  • Apr 6, 2010 6:03pm Apr 6, 2010 6:03pm
and this one?
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  • #22,191
  • Apr 6, 2010 6:16pm Apr 6, 2010 6:16pm
I have to go, ill come back tomorrow
  • #22,192
  • Edited 8:15pm Apr 6, 2010 6:44pm | Edited 8:15pm
Quoting emiliolopez
and this one?
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The AUD had another interest rate hike yesterday which is why it rose so rapidly yesterday. This makes it the highest yielding currency at the moment. I would not be shorting the AUD as it is clear that it is in demand right now due to its high yield. Even though AUD pairs are due a pullback, I would be very hesitant to short AU pairs or go long EURAUD.
  • #22,193
  • Apr 6, 2010 6:51pm Apr 6, 2010 6:51pm
This is a quote from Phil from post 797. It is better to trade with the trend than to counter trend trade.

"1. Remember that when the price is trending it tends to come back to the 21EMA before continuing the trend. If you are in the trend you dont want to counter trade the trend.

If you are not in the trend you must only consider counter trending when there is resistance evidence such as trendlines together with price level, MA, Fib, candle patterns etc.

2. If you counter trade the trend you must know that it is a risky trade and the gain sometimes is not so big. Profit must be taken somewhere between 8EMA and 21EMA."
  • #22,194
  • Edited 9:01pm Apr 6, 2010 8:39pm | Edited 9:01pm
Quoting emiliolopez
Hi, i see 2 possible:

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The yen pairs are all waiting for the JPY rate decision and BOJ Press Conference. ALthough it is unlikely that there will have a change of rate, there will probably be indecision and volatiliity until this has happened.
  • #22,195
  • Apr 7, 2010 1:45am Apr 7, 2010 1:45am
Quoting emiliolopez
im learning this and would like to have this clear, hope you dont mind me asking this:

so this is not a valid signal because the price hasnt closed below the 21?

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I think we misunderstood each other a little . Let's start from the beginnig, in a trend price comes to the 21 and gives us TC (trend continuation) signal with the trend. These are the gold eggs of the strategy. If you only have started try to trade only this.

What you are talking about is RT (round top), it is a signal indeed, but we do not trade every RT or RB. In this case it is against the trend. To really go against the trend you need much more than only a RT signal. You need strong support/resistance area, tails, divergence... the more the better. Otherwise you are standing in front of a fast going train.

So, I would personally skip this RT, but as the price retraced to the 21 what am I waiting for? Either trend may cont. its way up, so I need some trend cont. signal - it can be BOZ or TC. Or, the price will close below 21, then possibly it will go and retest 21 and then will head to the 89. In this case we will also get a TC, but it will be only a signal, not real trend. This ia also called the A,B,C correction or 1,2,3.

I know there is some mixture in terms, but it is not really a problem if you understand the rhythm.

The frist chart shows TC with the trend (by the way it is my deal on EUR). The second possible TC or BOZ to the 89.

Hope this helps, keep asking. It is a pleasure for me to help. you don't know how much people around here helped me at my time.
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  • #22,196
  • Apr 7, 2010 7:47am Apr 7, 2010 7:47am
EURUSD 4hr TC -> Check 1hr. 1hr showed price pullback to 21 with many tails. I think the trend is very strong to the down side. I took the short after the shooting star, shifted stop loss to breakeven when down 20 pips. Shifted stop loss to 25 pips when it went down 50 pips. Looks like now it is coming back up. I'm not sure if i shifted my stop loss too often.

http://img396.imageshack.us/img396/663/eurusdj.gif
  • #22,197
  • Apr 7, 2010 10:33am Apr 7, 2010 10:33am
Quoting wuming79
EURUSD 4hr TC -> Check 1hr. 1hr showed price pullback to 21 with many tails. I think the trend is very strong to the down side. I took the short after the shooting star, shifted stop loss to breakeven when down 20 pips. Shifted stop loss to 25 pips when it went down 50 pips. Looks like now it is coming back up. I'm not sure if i shifted my stop loss too often.
I tend to put to breakeven as soon as possible, after 25 pips. Sometimes I miss big moves, but I feel comfortable this way. Find what you feel comfortable with. I was in this short too.
  • #22,198
  • Apr 7, 2010 10:49am Apr 7, 2010 10:49am
Quoting xeneric
The AUD had another interest rate hike yesterday which is why it rose so rapidly yesterday. This makes it the highest yielding currency at the moment. I would not be shorting the AUD as it is clear that it is in demand right now due to its high yield. Even though AUD pairs are due a pullback, I would be very hesitant to short AU pairs or go long EURAUD.
I missed the interest rate news, ive been away from the forex news latelly because ive been busy with other things, i would have liked to trade that interest rate hike.
  • #22,199
  • Apr 7, 2010 11:22am Apr 7, 2010 11:22am
Quoting xeneric
This is a quote from...
So this would be a more probability trade because its following the uptrend by the 365, 200 and 89 averages?

then would have to wait for the MACD confirmation

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  • #22,200
  • Apr 7, 2010 11:32am Apr 7, 2010 11:32am
Quoting ira

Hope this helps, keep asking. It is a pleasure for me to help. you don't know how much people around here helped me at my time.
thank you very much, i apreciate your help.
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