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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #1,261
  • Apr 6, 2010 8:31am Apr 6, 2010 8:31am
usdnzd just closed a long forgotten gap....

sometimes a realistic target can be .5 fib past prior extreme and within 3 times the prior corrections length of time..... such as , if the correction spanned 1 week, the target would be within 3 weeks.....

the wall of worry effect can lengthen or shorten that time by a factor of 1, depending on if the trend is up or down.....

the usdnzd is doing the easy part, the hard part is waiting 3 weeks....

//----

that dang collective jyp crosses retracement took out most of my jyp trades..... now the slow rebuilding is in process.....h
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd gap.gif Size: 52 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd target.gif Size: 44 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy wipeout.gif Size: 40 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #1,262
  • Apr 6, 2010 8:42am Apr 6, 2010 8:42am
Quoting Patience
https://mm.jpmorgan.com/stp/t/c.do?i...pdf*h_-3svpri0

. Good trades
hey patience..... thanks for that article, really does help......

looks like they feel the sea of jyp is the place to be..... my thoughts also....

and haven't the chf's have been especially good lookin lately..... maybe blondes do have more fun......h
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf current.gif Size: 55 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf target.gif Size: 57 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #1,263
  • Apr 6, 2010 8:46am Apr 6, 2010 8:46am
took long U/Cad at .9997 SL= below weekly S2 at .9940 TP=1.01 & 1.032
  • #1,264
  • Apr 6, 2010 8:48am Apr 6, 2010 8:48am
Quoting shahab8b
G'day Patience, yea they (Lloyds) used to published their trade recommendations before the merger, I remember I opened a demo account maybe around 3 years ago to follow their recommendations, the result wasn't impressive though.
G'day Shahab

Yep, I noticed that some trades were good and some were bad and they never used to seem to lock profits in fast enough even when they were 100 pips in profit and then the trade would go to loss. Doh! Each to his own I suppose.

I've also attached a report on the UK (if you feel like reading anymore fundies). I've had to zip it (there is only one document) as it was too big to be attached as a pdf.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx-4hour-6apr.jpg Size: 166 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip UK_Economic_Quarterly_Bulletin_April_2010.zip   2.3 MB | 287 downloads
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,265
  • Apr 6, 2010 8:57am Apr 6, 2010 8:57am
Quoting shahab8b
took long U/Cad at .9997 SL= below weekly S2 at .9940 TP=1.01 & 1.032
I'm watching the PA, when the trade goes +20 pips I'll move SL= below day low (atm=.9990)
  • #1,266
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:00am Apr 6, 2010 9:00am
Quoting Patience
G'day Shahab

Yep, I noticed that some trades were good and some were bad and they never used to seem to lock profits in fast enough even when they were 100 pips in profit and then the trade would go to loss. Doh! Each to his own I suppose.

I've also attached a report on the UK (if you feel like reading anymore fundies). I've had to zip it (there is only one document) as it was too big to be attached as a pdf.

Attachment
thanx patience, I just downloaded the report
  • #1,267
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:01am Apr 6, 2010 9:01am
Quoting hayseed
hey patience..... thanks for that article, really does help......

looks like they feel the sea of jyp is the place to be..... my thoughts also....

and haven't the chf's have been especially good lookin lately..... maybe blondes do have more fun......h
Oh, I don't know. I'm a brunette and I can't complain At least I never got called dizzy .... Wow, your charts spin my head ..... I am dizzy

US indices in the red. Let's see what damage that can do.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,268
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:05am Apr 6, 2010 9:05am
Quoting hayseed
hey patience..... thanks for that article, really does help......

looks like they feel the sea of jyp is the place to be..... my thoughts also....

and haven't the chf's have been especially good lookin lately..... maybe blondes do have more fun......h
Hi there, wow look at those charts, if my screen looks like this I will definitively get a heart attack, hopefully you use EA to manage all those open trades
  • #1,269
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:12am Apr 6, 2010 9:12am
Quoting shahab8b
I'm watching the PA, when the trade goes +20 pips I'll move SL= below day low (atm=.9990)
This is why I just cannot go long U/Cad (Jurik RSX in red on daily, weekly and monthly). I was lucky to get out by the skin of my teeth on those positions I had up in the 1.02 area (after it initially broke support).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad-daily.jpg Size: 110 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cad-weekly.jpg Size: 105 KB
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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,270
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:20am Apr 6, 2010 9:20am
thoughts/charts/patterns on AUD?

Its just hovering above .9220 R turned S.

thoughts?
  • #1,271
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:20am Apr 6, 2010 9:20am
Quoting Patience
This is why I just cannot go long U/Cad (Jurik RSX in red on daily, weekly and monthly). I was lucky to get out by the skin of my teeth on those positions I had up in the 1.02 area (after it initially broke support).
I know, this is what I think , but I'm trying to pick the bottom today, bottom picking is not a smart move anyway.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ucad2a.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #1,272
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:29am Apr 6, 2010 9:29am
Quoting puks
thoughts/charts/patterns on AUD?

Its just hovering above .9220 R turned S.

thoughts?
Well from a Jurik point of view it's not looking great for downside. Green RSX on daily, weekly and monthly - exactly the opposite of CAD. However, if Robert Prechter's well televised indice correction plays out between now and May, things could change very quickly - let's see if his timing is right this time.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud-daily.jpg Size: 99 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud-weekly.jpg Size: 101 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud-monthly.jpg Size: 104 KB
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,273
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:29am Apr 6, 2010 9:29am
Quoting shahab8b
hopefully you use EA to manage all those open trades
hey shah..... yep, ea's handle everything from start to finish....... hayseed's make terrible manual traders.....

eurusd blew thru it's .5 fib target a few hours ago..... that target will readjust to a larger timeframe shortly.....h
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd target.gif Size: 56 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #1,274
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:31am Apr 6, 2010 9:31am
Quoting puks
thoughts/charts/patterns on AUD?

Its just hovering above .9220 R turned S.

thoughts?
I knew the .9220 R>S would be annoying in the way back down, atm .9211 needs to be taken out first as far as that S (.92110) holds A/U is bullish in Hr and above , but overall I have a gut feeling that we see USD strength later today
  • #1,275
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:33am Apr 6, 2010 9:33am
Quoting hayseed
hey shah..... yep, ea's handle everything from start to finish....... hayseed's make terrible manual traders.....

eurusd blew thru it's .5 fib target a few hours ago..... that target will readjust to a larger timeframe shortly.....h
as far as I see your EA performance you should be making huge profit, what has been your EA performance till now?
  • #1,276
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:40am Apr 6, 2010 9:40am
Quoting shahab8b
I know, this is what I think , but I'm trying to pick the bottom today, bottom picking is not a smart move anyway.

Quoting philmcgrew
He who pick bottom get stinky finger.
I know, I know - it's gross - but it did make me laugh the first time I saw it. It's a bit overdone now ....
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,277
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:41am Apr 6, 2010 9:41am
Quoting Patience
if Robert Prechter's well televised indice correction plays out between now and May, things could change very quickly - let's see if his timing is right this time.
I think there is good chance that he will be right this time, the skyrocketing price of equity need a correction anyway, however I doubt that if we ever return to March 09 level
  • #1,278
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:44am Apr 6, 2010 9:44am
Quoting shahab8b
I think there is good chance that he will be right this time, the skyrocketing price of equity need a correction anyway, however I doubt that if we ever return to March 09 level
I quoting Igrok! This post is dated 9 March 2009 ...

Quoting Igrok
The levels of 1994 at around 3500-3700 look quite reasonable as potential bottom. I hope it will go there straight from here, slowly but surely. In case the market first makes a bounce back to 10K-11K level then it might look even worse, cause in this case the next MOT will point at zero, which would mean a complete disaster for everyone.
Let's all remain optimists though ...
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,279
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:46am Apr 6, 2010 9:46am
Quoting shahab8b
took long U/Cad at .9997 SL= below weekly S2 at .9940 TP=1.01 & 1.032
this bottom picking trade turned green finally, lets see if it goes a bit higher so I can move my SL to .9990
  • #1,280
  • Edited 10:05am Apr 6, 2010 9:49am | Edited 10:05am
Quoting shahab8b
this bottom picking trade turned green finally, lets see if it goes a bit higher so I can move my SL to .9990
It's only done 56 pips from high to low. Daily ATR for last 60 days is 99. Will be interesting to see what it does.

[EDIT] We got Fed minutes later as well.
Nothing worth having is easy.
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